tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Embraer-empresa Brasileira De Aeronautica (ERJ)
NYSE:ERJ
Advertisement

Embraer SA (ERJ) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
947 Followers

Top Page

ERJ

Embraer SA

(NYSE:ERJ)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
▲(12.15% Upside)
Embraer's strong financial performance and positive technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's record-breaking revenue and robust backlog, as highlighted in the earnings call, further support its growth prospects. However, the relatively high P/E ratio and external challenges such as U.S. tariffs and inflationary pressures slightly temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Record Backlog
A record backlog indicates strong demand and future revenue potential, enhancing Embraer's market position and long-term growth prospects.
Strategic Partnerships
Strategic partnerships and large orders like TrueNoord's enhance Embraer's market reach and reinforce its position in the regional jet market.
Debt Management
Effective debt management through tender offers improves financial flexibility, reducing interest burden and enhancing long-term financial health.
Negative Factors
U.S. Tariffs Impact
Ongoing U.S. tariffs pose a risk to margins and competitiveness, potentially affecting profitability and strategic planning.
Inflationary Pressures
Inflation and currency volatility can erode margins and increase costs, impacting Embraer's financial performance and strategic flexibility.
Leadership Change
Leadership changes can lead to strategic shifts and uncertainty, potentially affecting stakeholder confidence and company direction.

Embraer SA (ERJ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Embraer SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEmbraer SA is a Brazilian aerospace company headquartered in São José dos Campos, specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and sale of aircraft. It operates in several sectors, including commercial aviation, defense, and executive jets. Embraer is known for its innovative regional jets, such as the E-Jet series, as well as military aircraft and business jets, catering to a diverse global market.
How the Company Makes MoneyEmbraer generates revenue primarily through the sale of aircraft across its three main business segments: Commercial Aviation, Defense & Security, and Executive Jets. The company earns significant income from the sale of new aircraft, as well as from aftermarket services, which include maintenance, repair, and spare parts. Additionally, Embraer has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures, such as its collaboration with Boeing under the Embraer-Boeing joint venture, which enhances its market reach and product offerings. Government contracts and defense orders also contribute to its revenue, particularly in the military segment. Overall, Embraer's revenue model is driven by a combination of aircraft sales, service agreements, and partnerships that strengthen its position in the aerospace industry.

Embraer SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Embraer's record-breaking revenue, strong backlog, and significant orders across segments, reflecting solid growth and operational efficiency. However, concerns about U.S. tariffs, challenges with certain customers, and potential inflationary and FX pressures balanced the positive aspects.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Embraer delivered the highest second quarter revenue in its history, totaling $1.8 billion, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 10.5%, the highest for a second quarter over the past decade.
Strong Backlog and Book-to-Bill Ratio
The backlog reached a new all-time high of $29.7 billion, driven by strong demand across all business units, with a book-to-bill ratio close to 2:1 in the last 12 months.
Significant Orders and Deliveries
Commercial Aviation saw significant orders including SAS's order of 45 E195-E2s and SkyWest's purchase of 60 E175s. Deliveries were up 30% year-over-year.
Executive Aviation and Defense Success
Executive Aviation delivered record second quarter revenue of $550 million with a robust backlog, and Defense & Security saw a $4.3 billion backlog with notable orders from Portugal and Lithuania.
Debt Reduction and Financial Health
Embraer significantly reduced its gross and net debt by approximately $560 million and $720 million, respectively, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.7x.
Negative Updates
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
U.S. tariffs continue to be a concern, with a current 10% impact already considered in forecasts. Further negotiations are in progress to address these tariffs.
Challenges with Azul
The restructuring process with customer Azul led to write-offs and provisioning for bad debts, impacting the Service & Support segment's EBIT margin.
Inflationary and FX Pressures
Inflationary pressures, foreign exchange rate volatility, and ongoing tariff issues in the U.S. present challenges for the second half of the year, impacting margins.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Embraer reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue of $1.8 billion, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 10.5%, marking the highest level for a second quarter in the past decade. The company's backlog reached an all-time high of $29.7 billion, driven by strong demand across all business units, with deliveries up 30% year-over-year. Embraer's book-to-bill ratio was close to 2:1 over the last 12 months. In Commercial Aviation, the division recorded a backlog of $13.1 billion, supported by a 1.8:1 book-to-bill ratio. Executive Aviation achieved record second-quarter revenue of approximately $550 million and a $7.4 billion backlog, with a 2.4:1 book-to-bill ratio. The Defense & Security division ended the quarter with a $4.3 billion backlog and a 3.6:1 book-to-bill ratio, while Service & Support closed with a $4.9 billion backlog and a 2:1 book-to-bill ratio. Despite concerns over U.S. tariffs, the impact has been managed and factored into the year's forecast, presenting an upside potential should tariffs return to zero. Overall, Embraer remains confident in achieving its 2025 guidance of $7 billion to $7.5 billion in revenues, with adjusted EBIT margins between 7.5% and 8.3%, and more than $200 million in free cash flow.

Embraer SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Embraer demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company has successfully turned around from past losses, showing resilience and a positive growth trajectory. While the balance sheet is stable, further reduction in debt could enhance financial flexibility.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Embraer has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.23% from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 17.78%, and the net profit margin has improved to 6.02% indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT margin of 10.92% and EBITDA margin of 17.61% reflect operational efficiency. The company's trajectory from negative net income in 2020 to positive in recent years indicates a significant turnaround.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Embraer's balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, showing manageable leverage. The return on equity is 12.45%, which is a positive indicator of profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 27.26%, suggesting a solid equity base, though there is room for improvement in reducing liabilities further.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The company exhibits strong cash flow management, with operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.51 in TTM, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash efficiently and reinvest in growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.92B6.39B5.27B4.54B4.20B3.77B
Gross Profit1.29B1.15B909.60M912.20M655.85M477.60M
EBITDA1.08B1.01B598.20M228.40M479.90M-123.30M
Net Income376.99M352.50M164.00M-185.40M-44.70M-731.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.07B11.82B10.78B10.14B10.15B10.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.26B2.20B2.15B2.31B2.57B2.70B
Total Debt2.32B2.60B2.98B3.27B4.09B4.51B
Total Liabilities8.46B8.48B7.74B7.32B7.38B7.61B
Stockholders Equity3.31B3.08B2.79B2.57B2.67B2.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow533.07M405.00M186.20M495.30M247.10M-1.51B
Operating Cash Flow945.96M871.20M617.00M751.30M515.30M-1.29B
Investing Cash Flow-586.26M-599.70M-447.60M-109.50M-131.60M-105.30M
Financing Cash Flow-437.80M-335.70M-348.70M-669.20M-441.04M1.01B

Embraer SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price64.20
Price Trends
50DMA
58.61
Positive
100DMA
55.88
Positive
200DMA
50.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.18
Negative
RSI
64.92
Neutral
STOCH
94.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.60, above the 50-day MA of 58.61, and above the 200-day MA of 50.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ERJ.

Embraer SA Risk Analysis

Embraer SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Embraer SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We do not have a controlling shareholder and as a result we may be subject to certain risks. Q4, 2023
2.
We are subject to significant competition. Q4, 2023
3.
We face risks of being engaged in a global business and operating in global industries, which may adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

Embraer SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$112.72B27.2462.78%2.70%2.88%-35.15%
76
Outperform
$11.56B31.2212.21%0.08%22.95%-1.01%
75
Outperform
$54.69B32.648.90%1.62%2.93%43.29%
69
Neutral
$85.13B21.7426.15%1.44%-0.14%72.35%
67
Neutral
$14.72B17.4811.46%0.10%1.19%-6.77%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
43
Neutral
$163.78B2.41%-193.57%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ERJ
Embraer SA
64.20
29.32
84.06%
BA
Boeing
217.77
62.57
40.32%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
293.28
53.83
22.48%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
488.05
-60.72
-11.06%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
605.74
91.09
17.70%
TXT
Textron
79.47
-1.94
-2.38%

Embraer SA Corporate Events

Embraer Achieves Record Backlog and Milestones in 3Q25
Oct 21, 2025

In October 2025, Embraer S.A. announced a record-high backlog of $31.3 billion for the third quarter, driven by strong performance across its business units. The commercial aviation segment achieved a nine-year record backlog of $15.2 billion, supported by significant orders from Avelo Airlines and LATAM Group for the E195-E2 jets. The executive aviation unit marked a milestone with the delivery of its 2,000th business jet, while the defense and security division secured contracts for the KC-390 Millennium and A-29 Super Tucano aircraft. These developments underscore Embraer’s robust industry positioning and potential for growth, benefiting stakeholders and enhancing its competitive edge.

Embraer S.A. Submits October 2025 Form 6-K to SEC
Oct 14, 2025

Embraer S.A., a prominent player in the aerospace industry, has submitted a Form 6-K report to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of October 2025. This filing is part of the company’s compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating its ongoing regulatory obligations and transparency in financial reporting.

TrueNoord Orders 20 Embraer E195-E2 Jets in Landmark Deal
Oct 14, 2025

On October 14, 2025, TrueNoord, a regional aircraft leasing company, announced a firm order for 20 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, with purchase rights for up to 30 additional jets. This agreement marks TrueNoord’s first direct order with an aircraft manufacturer, valued at USD 1.8 billion, and highlights the growing demand for fuel-efficient regional jets. The deal underscores Embraer’s strong market position and the increasing interest in next-generation narrowbody aircraft, reflecting a strategic move for both companies to enhance their offerings and support sustainable aviation solutions.

Embraer S.A. Announces Ticker Symbol Change Effective November 2025
Oct 14, 2025

Embraer S.A. announced that effective November 3, 2025, its ordinary shares will trade under the new ticker symbol EMBJ3 on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, replacing the previous symbol EMBR3. Additionally, its American Depositary Shares and bonds on the New York Stock Exchange will trade under the new ticker symbol EMBJ, replacing ERJ. This change aims to streamline the company’s market presence and improve its brand recognition among investors.

Embraer S.A. Issues $1 Billion in Notes to Bolster Financial Position
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the execution of a Second Supplemental Indenture, which involves the issuance of $1 billion in 5.400% Notes due 2038. This strategic move, facilitated by Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V. and The Bank of New York Mellon, aims to strengthen Embraer’s financial position and provide additional capital for its operations. The issuance of these notes is expected to enhance Embraer’s market positioning and offer new opportunities for stakeholders.

Embraer Announces Cash Tender Offers for Debt Securities
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the consideration payable for its cash tender offers for certain outstanding securities, specifically the 6.950% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2028 and the 7.000% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2030. The tender offers, managed by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, involve exchanging these notes for new 5.400% senior unsecured notes due 2038. The offers are part of Embraer’s strategy to manage its debt profile and optimize its financial operations, with the early settlement date expected on October 7, 2025. This move reflects Embraer’s efforts to strengthen its financial position and could impact stakeholders by potentially enhancing the company’s credit profile.

Sweden Acquires Embraer C-390 Millennium Aircraft in European Defense Partnership
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Sweden acquired four C-390 Millennium aircraft from Embraer as part of a European collaborative procurement program with the Netherlands and Austria. This contract includes seven additional purchase options, indicating potential future acquisitions by other European nations. The acquisition enhances Sweden’s operational capabilities and interoperability with European partners, marking a significant milestone in modernizing its air force. The C-390 Millennium, known for its payload capacity and versatility, strengthens Embraer’s position in the European defense market and among NATO nations.

Embraer Announces Early Results of Cash Tender Offers
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the early results of its cash tender offers for senior unsecured guaranteed notes due in 2028 and 2030. The company, through Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, accepted significant portions of the notes tendered before the early tender date, offering total consideration including early tender payments. The expiration date for the offers is set for October 21, 2025, and the company plans to exchange the purchased notes with new notes due in 2038. This strategic financial maneuver is expected to optimize Embraer’s debt profile and strengthen its financial position.

Embraer Surpasses 3Q24 Deliveries with 62 Aircraft in 3Q25
Oct 2, 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, Embraer delivered 62 aircraft, surpassing its previous year’s third-quarter deliveries. This included 20 commercial jets, with the E195-E2 model being the most delivered, and 41 executive jets, led by the Phenom 300. Additionally, one KC-390 Millennium military transport aircraft was delivered. The company’s delivery estimates for 2025 indicate growth, with expectations of delivering between 77 and 85 commercial aircraft and 145 to 155 executive jets, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase.

Embraer and SNC Announce A-29 Super Tucano Purchase Agreement
Sep 23, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Embraer and SNC announced a new sales agreement for the purchase of an A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, marking a significant step in response to the growing demand for Light Attack and ISR aircraft. This agreement, made ahead of a pending Foreign Military Sales case, allows for immediate pilot training and reduces the time to Initial Operational Capability by up to a year. The aircraft will be manufactured in Jacksonville, Florida, and this deal underscores the long-standing partnership between Embraer and SNC. The A-29 Super Tucano is renowned for its versatility and durability, capable of performing a wide range of missions, and has been selected by 22 air forces globally.

Embraer Increases Tender Offer Amount Following Successful Note Pricing
Sep 23, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced an increase in the maximum tender amount for its cash tender offers concerning certain outstanding securities. This decision follows the successful pricing of a $1 billion offering of new senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2038. The increase in the tender amount reflects Embraer’s strategic financial management and could enhance its liquidity position, potentially impacting its market operations and stakeholder interests positively.

Embraer S.A. Secures $1 Billion in Notes with 2038 Maturity
Sep 23, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V., a subsidiary of Embraer S.A., entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $1 billion in 5.400% notes due in 2038. These notes are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Embraer S.A. on a senior unsecured basis, indicating a strategic financial move to bolster its capital structure and potentially enhance its market position.

Embraer Prices $1 Billion Notes Offering Due 2038
Sep 23, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced that its subsidiary, Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V., has priced an offering of $1 billion in 5.400% notes due 2038. The proceeds from this offering are intended to fund the purchase of certain outstanding notes and for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver is expected to strengthen Embraer’s financial position and enhance its market strategy by optimizing its debt profile.

Embraer S.A. Initiates Cash Tender Offers for Debt Optimization
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced cash tender offers for certain outstanding securities, specifically targeting its 6.950% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2028 and 7.000% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2030. The offers, managed by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, aim to purchase notes up to an aggregate principal amount not exceeding $750 million. This strategic financial maneuver is intended to optimize Embraer’s debt profile, contingent upon successful new debt financing by Embraer Finance. The tender offers are set to expire on October 21, 2025, with early tender considerations available for those participating by October 3, 2025.

Embraer S.A. Reports Strong Revenue Growth for First Half of 2025
Sep 22, 2025

Embraer S.A. reported its financial results for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, showing a significant increase in total revenue to $2,922.2 million from $2,390.8 million in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by strong performance across its segments, particularly in Executive Aviation and Services & Support, resulting in a gross profit of $542.0 million, up from $408.7 million. The results highlight Embraer’s improved operational efficiency and market positioning, which could positively impact stakeholders and enhance its competitive edge in the aerospace industry.

LATAM Expands South American Connectivity with Embraer E195-E2 Order
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, LATAM Airlines Group announced a strategic expansion in South America by ordering up to 74 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, including 24 firm orders and 50 purchase options. This move, valued at approximately $2.1 billion, aims to enhance LATAM’s network by potentially adding up to 35 new destinations. The deliveries will begin in the second half of 2026, initially serving LATAM Airlines Brazil, and may extend to other affiliates. This investment aligns with LATAM’s financial policy and underscores its commitment to regional growth and connectivity, leveraging the E195-E2’s superior fuel efficiency and passenger comfort.

Portugal Expands KC-390 Fleet with Embraer Contract Amendment
Sep 17, 2025

On September 17, 2025, Embraer and the Portuguese State signed an amendment to their existing contract for the acquisition of a sixth KC-390 Millennium aircraft, along with ten new purchase options for potential future acquisitions by partner nations. This move is part of the Portuguese Air Force’s modernization efforts, enhancing its strategic and operational capabilities. The expansion of the KC-390 fleet is expected to bolster Portugal’s tactical and logistical transport capacity, enabling rapid response to a variety of missions. The contract also positions Portugal as a benchmark for other European nations and NATO members seeking advanced aircraft solutions.

Avelo Airlines Orders 100 Embraer E195-E2s to Boost Fleet
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Avelo Airlines announced a firm order for 50 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, with options for 50 more, valued at $4.4 billion. This order marks Avelo as the first U.S. carrier to operate Embraer’s advanced E195-E2s, aimed at modernizing its fleet and enhancing cost efficiency. The aircraft’s advanced features, including short-field performance and fuel efficiency, are expected to expand Avelo’s market reach and improve operational efficiency, highlighting Embraer’s strategic positioning in the U.S. market.

Panama Acquires Embraer’s Super Tucano Aircraft for Enhanced Surveillance
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Embraer announced that Panama has signed a contract to acquire four A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, marking Panama as the eighth Latin American country to select this model for its National Air and Naval Service. This acquisition aims to enhance Panama’s surveillance and protection capabilities, aligning with the country’s national security projects. The A-29 Super Tucano is recognized for its reliability and cost-effectiveness, with more than 600,000 flight hours and usage by 22 air forces globally.

Embraer Announces Board Chairman Resignation
Aug 15, 2025

Embraer S.A. announced that Pedro Luís Farcic has resigned from his position as Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective September 1, 2025. Maurício Augusto Silveira de Medeiros will take over the role until the next Annual General Meeting, as per the company’s bylaws. This leadership change could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Embraer S.A. Files SEC Report on August 5, 2025
Aug 5, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Embraer S.A. filed a report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Antonio Carlos Garcia, the Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. This filing underscores Embraer’s ongoing compliance with international financial regulations, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and supporting its strategic objectives in the global aerospace market.

Embraer S.A. Files July 2025 Report with SEC
Jul 22, 2025

On July 21, 2025, Embraer S.A. submitted a report under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, signed by Antonio Carlos Garcia, the Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. This filing underscores Embraer’s compliance with regulatory requirements, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring transparency in its financial operations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2025