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Embraer-empresa Brasileira De Aeronautica (ERJ)
:ERJ
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Embraer SA (ERJ) AI Stock Analysis

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ERJ

Embraer SA

(ERJ)

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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$55.00
▼(-14.95% Downside)
ERJ's score reflects robust financial performance (83) and strong earnings trajectory (80), offset by bearish technical indicators (55). The exceptional 10% dividend yield provides valuation support, while record backlog signals sustained growth potential.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth across multiple segments indicates robust demand and effective market positioning, supporting long-term expansion.
Record Backlog
A record backlog reflects strong future demand and provides revenue visibility, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Operational Improvements
Improved operational efficiency and reduced lead times enhance competitiveness and customer satisfaction, supporting sustainable growth.
Negative Factors
Executive Aviation EBIT Margin Decline
Declining margins in Executive Aviation due to product mix and tariffs could pressure profitability, affecting long-term financial health.
US Import Tariff Impact
Significant tariff costs reduce profitability and may necessitate strategic adjustments, impacting long-term financial performance.
Supply Chain Risks
Supply chain risks could disrupt production and delivery schedules, affecting revenue and operational efficiency in the long term.

Embraer SA (ERJ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Embraer SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
How the Company Makes MoneyEmbraer SA generates revenue through the sale of aircraft across its various business segments, including commercial aviation, executive jets, defense and security, and agricultural aviation. A significant portion of its income comes from commercial aviation, where it sells regional jets to airlines globally. In the executive jets segment, Embraer offers private jets tailored to business clients, contributing to its revenue. The defense and security division provides military aircraft and related services to governments, further diversifying its income streams. Additionally, Embraer earns money through after-sales support, maintenance services, and partnerships with other aerospace companies, enhancing its earnings potential.

Embraer SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Embraer delivered strong growth in orders and revenues across its segments, with significant operational improvements and a robust financial performance. However, challenges such as declining Executive Aviation EBIT margin, U.S. import tariffs, and supply chain risks temper the overall positive outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Backlog and Orders
Commercial Aviation's backlog increased to $15.2 billion with a 2.7:1 book-to-bill ratio, supported by significant orders from Avelo and LATAM. Executive Aviation also achieved a backlog of $7.3 billion with a 2.4:1 book-to-bill ratio.
Revenue Growth Across Segments
Commercial Aviation revenues increased by 31%, Defense & Security by 27%, and Services & Support by 16% year-over-year. Overall company revenues were up by 18%.
Strong Financial Performance
The company generated $236 million in adjusted EBITDA with an 11.8% margin and $300 million in adjusted free cash flow in Q3. Backlog reached $31.3 billion, a 38% increase.
Operational Improvements
Aircraft deliveries increased by 16%, with production lead times for Praetors reduced by 40%, KC-390 by 33%, and E-Jets by 27% compared to 2021.
Negative Updates
Executive Aviation EBIT Margin Decline
Despite a 4% increase in revenues, the adjusted EBIT margin for Executive Aviation decreased by 4.2 percentage points due to product mix, U.S. import tariffs, and higher costs.
US Import Tariff Impact
The company faced $27 million in U.S. import tariffs year-to-date, expecting a total impact of $60-65 million for the full year.
Supply Chain Risks
Despite having all necessary parts for current production, the company faced concentration of deliveries towards the end of the year, maintaining a conservative guidance due to potential risks.
Company Guidance
During Embraer's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance for the fiscal year. Embraer expects to deliver between 77 and 85 commercial aircraft and 145 to 155 executive jets. Financially, the company anticipates generating $7 billion to $7.5 billion in revenues, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.5% to 8.3%, and over $200 million in adjusted free cash flow. This guidance reflects the company's confidence in its operational progress despite acknowledging ongoing supply chain risks. Embraer's backlog reached $31.3 billion, marking a 38% year-over-year increase, highlighting substantial growth potential. The company also emphasized its strategic investments in new technologies to support long-term expansion, while aiming to maintain production stability and reduce costs.

Embraer SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Embraer demonstrates a solid financial performance with steady revenue growth, improved profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The company has successfully turned around from past losses, showing resilience and a positive growth trajectory. While the balance sheet is stable, further reduction in debt could enhance financial flexibility.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Embraer has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.23% from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 17.78%, and the net profit margin has improved to 6.02% indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT margin of 10.92% and EBITDA margin of 17.61% reflect operational efficiency. The company's trajectory from negative net income in 2020 to positive in recent years indicates a significant turnaround.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Embraer's balance sheet reveals a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.68, showing manageable leverage. The return on equity is 12.45%, which is a positive indicator of profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 27.26%, suggesting a solid equity base, though there is room for improvement in reducing liabilities further.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
The company exhibits strong cash flow management, with operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.51 in TTM, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. Free cash flow has grown significantly, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash efficiently and reinvest in growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.92B6.39B5.27B4.54B4.20B3.77B
Gross Profit1.29B1.15B909.60M912.20M655.85M477.60M
EBITDA1.08B1.01B598.20M228.40M479.90M-123.30M
Net Income376.99M352.50M164.00M-185.40M-44.70M-731.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.07B11.82B10.78B10.14B10.15B10.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.26B2.20B2.15B2.31B2.57B2.70B
Total Debt2.32B2.60B2.98B3.27B4.09B4.51B
Total Liabilities8.46B8.48B7.74B7.32B7.38B7.61B
Stockholders Equity3.31B3.08B2.79B2.57B2.67B2.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow533.07M405.00M186.20M495.30M247.10M-1.51B
Operating Cash Flow945.96M871.20M617.00M751.30M515.30M-1.29B
Investing Cash Flow-586.26M-599.70M-447.60M-109.50M-131.60M-105.30M
Financing Cash Flow-437.80M-335.70M-348.70M-669.20M-441.04M1.01B

Embraer SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price64.67
Price Trends
50DMA
60.33
Positive
100DMA
57.67
Positive
200DMA
51.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.36
Positive
RSI
56.91
Neutral
STOCH
47.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ERJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.94, above the 50-day MA of 60.33, and above the 200-day MA of 51.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ERJ.

Embraer SA Risk Analysis

Embraer SA disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Embraer SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We do not have a controlling shareholder and as a result we may be subject to certain risks. Q4, 2023
2.
We are subject to significant competition. Q4, 2023
3.
We face risks of being engaged in a global business and operating in global industries, which may adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

Embraer SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$81.42B20.4826.15%1.54%-0.14%72.35%
73
Outperform
12.21%0.08%22.29%51.90%
70
Outperform
$108.51B26.1862.78%2.88%2.88%-35.15%
70
Neutral
$53.31B30.609.13%1.64%2.83%47.00%
67
Neutral
$14.15B17.6611.46%0.10%1.83%-0.73%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
47
Neutral
$150.21B10.19%-6.03%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ERJ
Embraer SA
64.40
27.01
72.24%
BA
Boeing
194.61
42.93
28.30%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
290.66
35.10
13.73%
LMT
Lockheed Martin
458.35
-90.76
-16.53%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
568.61
48.74
9.38%
TXT
Textron
82.03
-5.44
-6.22%

Embraer SA Corporate Events

Embraer Achieves Record Backlog and Milestones in 3Q25
Oct 21, 2025

In October 2025, Embraer S.A. announced a record-high backlog of $31.3 billion for the third quarter, driven by strong performance across its business units. The commercial aviation segment achieved a nine-year record backlog of $15.2 billion, supported by significant orders from Avelo Airlines and LATAM Group for the E195-E2 jets. The executive aviation unit marked a milestone with the delivery of its 2,000th business jet, while the defense and security division secured contracts for the KC-390 Millennium and A-29 Super Tucano aircraft. These developments underscore Embraer’s robust industry positioning and potential for growth, benefiting stakeholders and enhancing its competitive edge.

Embraer S.A. Submits October 2025 Form 6-K to SEC
Oct 14, 2025

Embraer S.A., a prominent player in the aerospace industry, has submitted a Form 6-K report to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission for the month of October 2025. This filing is part of the company’s compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating its ongoing regulatory obligations and transparency in financial reporting.

TrueNoord Orders 20 Embraer E195-E2 Jets in Landmark Deal
Oct 14, 2025

On October 14, 2025, TrueNoord, a regional aircraft leasing company, announced a firm order for 20 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, with purchase rights for up to 30 additional jets. This agreement marks TrueNoord’s first direct order with an aircraft manufacturer, valued at USD 1.8 billion, and highlights the growing demand for fuel-efficient regional jets. The deal underscores Embraer’s strong market position and the increasing interest in next-generation narrowbody aircraft, reflecting a strategic move for both companies to enhance their offerings and support sustainable aviation solutions.

Embraer S.A. Announces Ticker Symbol Change Effective November 2025
Oct 14, 2025

Embraer S.A. announced that effective November 3, 2025, its ordinary shares will trade under the new ticker symbol EMBJ3 on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, replacing the previous symbol EMBR3. Additionally, its American Depositary Shares and bonds on the New York Stock Exchange will trade under the new ticker symbol EMBJ, replacing ERJ. This change aims to streamline the company’s market presence and improve its brand recognition among investors.

Embraer S.A. Issues $1 Billion in Notes to Bolster Financial Position
Oct 9, 2025

On October 9, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the execution of a Second Supplemental Indenture, which involves the issuance of $1 billion in 5.400% Notes due 2038. This strategic move, facilitated by Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V. and The Bank of New York Mellon, aims to strengthen Embraer’s financial position and provide additional capital for its operations. The issuance of these notes is expected to enhance Embraer’s market positioning and offer new opportunities for stakeholders.

Embraer Announces Cash Tender Offers for Debt Securities
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the consideration payable for its cash tender offers for certain outstanding securities, specifically the 6.950% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2028 and the 7.000% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2030. The tender offers, managed by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, involve exchanging these notes for new 5.400% senior unsecured notes due 2038. The offers are part of Embraer’s strategy to manage its debt profile and optimize its financial operations, with the early settlement date expected on October 7, 2025. This move reflects Embraer’s efforts to strengthen its financial position and could impact stakeholders by potentially enhancing the company’s credit profile.

Sweden Acquires Embraer C-390 Millennium Aircraft in European Defense Partnership
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Sweden acquired four C-390 Millennium aircraft from Embraer as part of a European collaborative procurement program with the Netherlands and Austria. This contract includes seven additional purchase options, indicating potential future acquisitions by other European nations. The acquisition enhances Sweden’s operational capabilities and interoperability with European partners, marking a significant milestone in modernizing its air force. The C-390 Millennium, known for its payload capacity and versatility, strengthens Embraer’s position in the European defense market and among NATO nations.

Embraer Announces Early Results of Cash Tender Offers
Oct 6, 2025

On October 6, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced the early results of its cash tender offers for senior unsecured guaranteed notes due in 2028 and 2030. The company, through Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, accepted significant portions of the notes tendered before the early tender date, offering total consideration including early tender payments. The expiration date for the offers is set for October 21, 2025, and the company plans to exchange the purchased notes with new notes due in 2038. This strategic financial maneuver is expected to optimize Embraer’s debt profile and strengthen its financial position.

Embraer Surpasses 3Q24 Deliveries with 62 Aircraft in 3Q25
Oct 2, 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, Embraer delivered 62 aircraft, surpassing its previous year’s third-quarter deliveries. This included 20 commercial jets, with the E195-E2 model being the most delivered, and 41 executive jets, led by the Phenom 300. Additionally, one KC-390 Millennium military transport aircraft was delivered. The company’s delivery estimates for 2025 indicate growth, with expectations of delivering between 77 and 85 commercial aircraft and 145 to 155 executive jets, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase.

Embraer and SNC Announce A-29 Super Tucano Purchase Agreement
Sep 23, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Embraer and SNC announced a new sales agreement for the purchase of an A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, marking a significant step in response to the growing demand for Light Attack and ISR aircraft. This agreement, made ahead of a pending Foreign Military Sales case, allows for immediate pilot training and reduces the time to Initial Operational Capability by up to a year. The aircraft will be manufactured in Jacksonville, Florida, and this deal underscores the long-standing partnership between Embraer and SNC. The A-29 Super Tucano is renowned for its versatility and durability, capable of performing a wide range of missions, and has been selected by 22 air forces globally.

Embraer Increases Tender Offer Amount Following Successful Note Pricing
Sep 23, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced an increase in the maximum tender amount for its cash tender offers concerning certain outstanding securities. This decision follows the successful pricing of a $1 billion offering of new senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2038. The increase in the tender amount reflects Embraer’s strategic financial management and could enhance its liquidity position, potentially impacting its market operations and stakeholder interests positively.

Embraer S.A. Secures $1 Billion in Notes with 2038 Maturity
Sep 23, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V., a subsidiary of Embraer S.A., entered into an underwriting agreement to issue $1 billion in 5.400% notes due in 2038. These notes are fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Embraer S.A. on a senior unsecured basis, indicating a strategic financial move to bolster its capital structure and potentially enhance its market position.

Embraer Prices $1 Billion Notes Offering Due 2038
Sep 23, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced that its subsidiary, Embraer Netherlands Finance B.V., has priced an offering of $1 billion in 5.400% notes due 2038. The proceeds from this offering are intended to fund the purchase of certain outstanding notes and for general corporate purposes. This financial maneuver is expected to strengthen Embraer’s financial position and enhance its market strategy by optimizing its debt profile.

Embraer S.A. Initiates Cash Tender Offers for Debt Optimization
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, Embraer S.A. announced cash tender offers for certain outstanding securities, specifically targeting its 6.950% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2028 and 7.000% senior unsecured guaranteed notes due 2030. The offers, managed by Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, aim to purchase notes up to an aggregate principal amount not exceeding $750 million. This strategic financial maneuver is intended to optimize Embraer’s debt profile, contingent upon successful new debt financing by Embraer Finance. The tender offers are set to expire on October 21, 2025, with early tender considerations available for those participating by October 3, 2025.

Embraer S.A. Reports Strong Revenue Growth for First Half of 2025
Sep 22, 2025

Embraer S.A. reported its financial results for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025, showing a significant increase in total revenue to $2,922.2 million from $2,390.8 million in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by strong performance across its segments, particularly in Executive Aviation and Services & Support, resulting in a gross profit of $542.0 million, up from $408.7 million. The results highlight Embraer’s improved operational efficiency and market positioning, which could positively impact stakeholders and enhance its competitive edge in the aerospace industry.

LATAM Expands South American Connectivity with Embraer E195-E2 Order
Sep 22, 2025

On September 22, 2025, LATAM Airlines Group announced a strategic expansion in South America by ordering up to 74 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, including 24 firm orders and 50 purchase options. This move, valued at approximately $2.1 billion, aims to enhance LATAM’s network by potentially adding up to 35 new destinations. The deliveries will begin in the second half of 2026, initially serving LATAM Airlines Brazil, and may extend to other affiliates. This investment aligns with LATAM’s financial policy and underscores its commitment to regional growth and connectivity, leveraging the E195-E2’s superior fuel efficiency and passenger comfort.

Portugal Expands KC-390 Fleet with Embraer Contract Amendment
Sep 17, 2025

On September 17, 2025, Embraer and the Portuguese State signed an amendment to their existing contract for the acquisition of a sixth KC-390 Millennium aircraft, along with ten new purchase options for potential future acquisitions by partner nations. This move is part of the Portuguese Air Force’s modernization efforts, enhancing its strategic and operational capabilities. The expansion of the KC-390 fleet is expected to bolster Portugal’s tactical and logistical transport capacity, enabling rapid response to a variety of missions. The contract also positions Portugal as a benchmark for other European nations and NATO members seeking advanced aircraft solutions.

Avelo Airlines Orders 100 Embraer E195-E2s to Boost Fleet
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Avelo Airlines announced a firm order for 50 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft, with options for 50 more, valued at $4.4 billion. This order marks Avelo as the first U.S. carrier to operate Embraer’s advanced E195-E2s, aimed at modernizing its fleet and enhancing cost efficiency. The aircraft’s advanced features, including short-field performance and fuel efficiency, are expected to expand Avelo’s market reach and improve operational efficiency, highlighting Embraer’s strategic positioning in the U.S. market.

Panama Acquires Embraer’s Super Tucano Aircraft for Enhanced Surveillance
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, Embraer announced that Panama has signed a contract to acquire four A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, marking Panama as the eighth Latin American country to select this model for its National Air and Naval Service. This acquisition aims to enhance Panama’s surveillance and protection capabilities, aligning with the country’s national security projects. The A-29 Super Tucano is recognized for its reliability and cost-effectiveness, with more than 600,000 flight hours and usage by 22 air forces globally.

Embraer Announces Board Chairman Resignation
Aug 15, 2025

Embraer S.A. announced that Pedro Luís Farcic has resigned from his position as Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective September 1, 2025. Maurício Augusto Silveira de Medeiros will take over the role until the next Annual General Meeting, as per the company’s bylaws. This leadership change could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

Embraer S.A. Files SEC Report on August 5, 2025
Aug 5, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Embraer S.A. filed a report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Antonio Carlos Garcia, the Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. This filing underscores Embraer’s ongoing compliance with international financial regulations, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and supporting its strategic objectives in the global aerospace market.

Embraer S.A. Files July 2025 Report with SEC
Jul 22, 2025

On July 21, 2025, Embraer S.A. submitted a report under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, signed by Antonio Carlos Garcia, the Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. This filing underscores Embraer’s compliance with regulatory requirements, which is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring transparency in its financial operations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 22, 2025