Eocene (EOCN) Risk Analysis

Undesirable side effects caused by Aramchol or any other product candidate could cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or applicable foreign regulatory authorities. To date, we have completed seven clinical trials of Aramchol, and additionally one proof of concept study in patient with gallstones, and a Phase 2a, investigator initiated clinical trial were completed. Although we have not seen any evidence of reactions causing a safety concern in our completed clinical trials, it is possible that the FDA may ask for additional data regarding any adverse events seen in our trials. Results of our future trials could reveal a high and unacceptable severity and prevalence of these or other side effects. In such an event, our trials could be suspended or terminated and the FDA or applicable foreign regulatory authorities could order us to cease further development of or deny approval for Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate for any or all targeted indications. The drug-related side effects could affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled patients to complete future trials or result in potential product liability claims. Any of these occurrences may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly. Even if Aramchol or any other product candidate receives marketing approval, we or others may later identify undesirable side effects caused by the product. In such an event, regulatory authorities may: - suspend or withdraw their approval of the product;         - require the addition of labeling statements, such as warnings, so-called "black box warnings," contraindications or restrictions on the product's intended use;         - require us to issue specific communications to healthcare professionals, such as "Dear Doctor" letters;         - issue negative publicity regarding the affected product, including safety communications;         - impose a risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS), in the case of FDA, or similar risk management strategies in the case of foreign regulators; In addition to these potentially significant negative consequences, we could be required to change the way the product is administered, conduct additional pre-clinical studies or clinical trials or restrict or cease the distribution or use of the product, and/or be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients. The foregoing or other events could prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the affected product candidate and could substantially increase commercialization costs or even force us to cease operations.

Patient enrollment, a significant factor in the timing of clinical trials, is affected by many factors including the size and nature of the patient population, the proximity of patients to clinical sites, the eligibility criteria for the trial, the design of the clinical trial, patient willingness to undergo a liver biopsy in our NASH trials, competing clinical trials and clinicians' and patients' perceptions as to the potential advantages and disadvantages of the product candidate being studied in relation to other available therapies, including any new drugs that may be approved for the indications we are investigating, and actual or threatened public health emergencies and outbreaks of disease (including, for example, any resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic). Potential patients for Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate may not be adequately diagnosed or identified with the diseases which we are targeting or may not meet the entry criteria for our studies. We will be required to identify and enroll a sufficient number of patients in the U.S. with NASH for each of our clinical trials of Aramchol in this indication. We also may encounter difficulties in identifying and enrolling U.S. NASH patients who meet the eligibility criteria for our planned clinical trials. We may not be able to initiate or continue clinical trials if we are unable to locate a sufficient number of eligible patients to participate in the clinical trials required by the FDA or other foreign regulatory agencies. In addition, the process of finding and diagnosing patients may prove costly. To date, we have already experienced significant delays in our clinical trials largely related to significantly slower than expected recruitment and the length of time required to obtain regulatory authorizations to proceed with clinical trials. Our inability to enroll a sufficient number of patients for any of our clinical trials could result in further significant delays, additional expenses, or may require us to abandon one or more clinical trials.

Pharmaceutical products generally are subject to rigorous nonclinical testing and clinical studies and other approval procedures mandated by the FDA and foreign regulatory authorities. We have historically developed Aramchol for the treatment of NASH. In September 2019, we initiated the ARMOR Study and during 2022 we discontinued the open-label part of the ARMOR Study having reached its objectives. Following the discontinuation of our open label part of the ARMOR Study, we do not currently expect to initiate the second part of the ARMOR Study. Although there are guidelines issued by the FDA for the development of drugs for the treatment of NASH, it is our current assessment that despite considerable efforts from the scientific community and regulatory agencies, there are significant uncertainties that remain unresolved with regards to the conduct of NASH Phase 3 registrational studies. These risks include dependence on biopsies as the primary surrogate endpoint which are subjective in nature and prone to sampling errors and inadequacy; high screen failure rates which pose a burden to patients, investigators, and study budget; lack of validated biomarkers and the heterogenous population included under the NASH diagnosis. Moreover, pathology plays a role in NASH clinical trials with histology being the current reference method to determine inclusion in trials and change in disease activity and fibrosis stage. Manual histological review is complex, subjective, and prone to inter- and intra-reader variability and error. Existing pathology scoring systems and practices show only moderate to fair reproducibility, limiting their utility for clinical research and practice. In addition, the FDA has indicated that the results of the ARMOR Study must be unequivocal and highly persuasive for a single Phase 3 study to support approval of an NDA. Therefore, even if the ARMOR Study meets all of its statistical goals and protocol endpoints, the FDA may not view the results as sufficient to support an NDA. We expect that the path for regulatory approval for NASH drugs to continue to evolve in the near term as we and other companies in late-stage development of NASH drugs refine our regulatory approval strategies and interact with the FDA and other regulatory authorities. In particular, FDA expectations about interpretation of liver biopsy data may evolve especially as more information is published about the inherent variability in interpretation of liver biopsy data. Certain of our competitors have experienced regulatory setbacks for NASH therapies following communications from the FDA. See also "Item 4. Information on the Company-Competition." Even after we receive and incorporate guidance from the FDA or other regulatory authorities, they could disagree that we have satisfied their requirements, which may require us to complete additional preclinical studies or clinical trials or impose stricter approval conditions than we currently expect. Furthermore, as the path for regulatory approval for NASH drugs evolves, it may impact our ARMOR Study in ways that could significantly increase the development costs and call into question the future viability of continuing to conduct the ARMOR Study. Additionally, we are considering more robust changes to our development program for NASH. Changes may include focusing on higher risk patients (F3), evaluating patients with compensated cirrhosis (F4) as well as changes to study design such as two smaller studies instead of one pivotal study and the addition of a combination arm. Any additional delays in the completion of the ARMOR Study or any additional preclinical studies or clinical trials would require us to expend substantial additional resources and could significantly extend the timeline for clinical development prior to market approval. As a result of the foregoing, the research and development, preclinical studies and clinical testing of Aramchol and any other product candidate is expensive and can take many years to complete, and its outcome is inherently uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the development process. If we experience delays in the completion of, or if we terminate, any of our clinical trials, this would have a material adverse effect on our business, liquidity, operating results and financial condition and may force us to cease operations.

We have not yet commercialized any products and we may never be able to do so. During 2022, we discontinued the open-label part of the ARMOR Study having reached its objectives and initiated a strategic review process. Following the discontinuation of our open label part of the ARMOR Study, we do not currently expect to initiate the second part of the ARMOR Study and are currently developing Aramchol for PSC. We do not know when or if we will complete development of Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate, obtain regulatory approval, or successfully commercialize any approved products. Even if we are successful in developing products that are approved for marketing, we will not be successful unless these products gain market acceptance for appropriate indications at favorable reimbursement rates. The degree of market acceptance for these products will depend on a number of factors, including: - the timing and scope of regulatory approvals in the countries we intend to pursue with respect to the commercialization of Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate, including the indications for which they are approved;         - the competitive environment;         - the ability for Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate to be manufactured, whether by us or third parties, in compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, including cGMP;         - our ability to effectively promote Aramchol or any other product candidate, whether directly or using third parties, consistent with the approved indications and labeling in the countries in which we intend to pursue approval;         - the acceptance by the medical community of the safety and clinical efficacy of Aramchol, Amilo-5MER or any other product candidate and their potential advantages over other therapeutic products;- the development of a non-invasive method for diagnosing NASH as an alternative to the current gold standard of liver biopsy, which we view as a rate-limiting factor to complete market uptake because of its expense and its risks and discomfort to patients;         - the adequacy and success of distribution, sales and marketing efforts, including through strategic agreements with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and         - the pricing and reimbursement policies of government and third-party payors, such as insurance companies, health maintenance organizations and other plan administrators. Physicians, patients, third-party payors or the medical community in general may be unwilling to accept, utilize or recommend, and in the case of third-party payors, reimburse any of our planned future products. As a result, we are unable to predict the extent of future losses or the time required to achieve profitability, if at all. Even if we successfully develop one or more products, we may not become profitable.

We may not be able to complete or commence the clinical trials that would support our submission of an NDA to the FDA, a Marketing Authorization Application or MAA, to the EMA or MHRA or any similar submission to regulatory authorities in other countries. Drug development is a long, expensive and uncertain process, and delay or failure can occur at any stage of any of our clinical trials. The fact that the FDA, EMA, MHRA or other regulatory authorities permit a company to conduct human clinical trials is no assurance or guarantee that the trials will be successful. On the contrary, most candidate drugs that begin clinical trials do not prove to be successful and do not result in the filing of an NDA, MAA or similar filing. Drug candidates that successfully complete one phase of clinical trials may prove unsuccessful at a subsequent phase. Human clinical trials are very expensive and difficult to design and implement, in part because they are subject to rigorous regulatory requirements and in part because the results of clinical trials are inherently uncertain and unpredictable. In addition, the design of a clinical trial can determine whether its results will support approval of a product, and flaws in the design of a clinical trial may not become apparent until the clinical trial is well advanced. Regulatory authorities, such as the FDA, may decline to permit a clinical trial to proceed or may suspend a clinical trial that it has previously permitted to proceed. Additionally, the clinical trial process is time-consuming, and failure can occur at any stage of the trials. We may encounter problems that cause us to abandon, delay or repeat clinical trials. The commencement and completion of clinical trials may be delayed by several factors, including: - difficulties obtaining regulatory authorization to commence a clinical trial or complying with regulatory requirements for clinical trials or with the conditions imposed by a regulatory authority regarding the scope, duration or conduct of a clinical trial;         - delays in reaching or failing to reach agreement on acceptable terms with prospective contract research organizations, or CROs, and trial sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and trial sites;         - insufficient or inadequate supply or quality of a product candidate or other materials necessary to conduct our clinical trials;         - difficulties in obtaining institutional review board, or IRB, approval to conduct a clinical trial at a prospective site;         - challenges in recruiting and enrolling patients to participate in clinical trials for a variety of reasons, including size and nature of patient population, proximity of patients to clinical sites, eligibility and exclusion criteria for the trial, nature of trial protocol, the availability of approved effective treatments for the relevant disease and competition from other clinical trial programs for similar indications;         - challenges in identifying or recruiting sufficient study sites or investigators for clinical trials;         - limitations on employee resources that would otherwise be focused on the conduct of our business including because of military reserve duty call-ups in the future that impact our employees and the affect the current war between Israel and Hamas on the productivity of our employees and external partners;         - delays in necessary interactions with vendors, local regulators, and other important agencies and contractors due to limitations in employee resources;         - impacts from prolonged remote work arrangements, such as increased cybersecurity risks and strains on our business continuity plans; and         - lack of adequate funding to initiate or continue our clinical trials. Even if we re-initiate the Phase 3 ARMOR Study, the ARMOR Study may still be terminated as a result of, but not limited to, safety signals, lack of efficacy, uncertainties with regard to the regulatory pathway for the approval of NASH drugs, or commercial considerations based on the cost-benefit of continuing to run the study. In addition, the ARMOR Study or other clinical trials may be suspended or terminated by us, the FDA or other regulatory authorities, the principal investigator at a site, the IRBs at the sites where such boards are overseeing a trial or the data safety monitoring board, or the DSMB, that is overseeing the clinical trial at issue, or other regulatory authorities due to a number of factors, including: - irregularities in conducting a clinical trial, including by way of example, failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements, in particular good clinical practice requirements, or GCP, or the FDA-authorized clinical protocols;         - negative findings upon inspection of the clinical trial operations or trial sites by the FDA or other regulatory authorities;         - safety issues or lack of clinical drug activity or effectiveness; and         - lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trials. To date, we have already experienced material delays in both the ARMOR Study largely related to significantly slower than expected recruitment and the ARREST Study largely related to significantly slower than expected recruitment and the length of time required to obtain regulatory authorizations to proceed with clinical trials. We may experience further delays in any or all of our clinical trials and there can be no assurance that we will not experience such risks in the future as we progress with our planned clinical trials. Furthermore, positive results in previous clinical studies of our product candidates may not be predictive of similar results in future clinical trials. Also, interim results, if at all, during a clinical trial do not necessarily predict final results. A number of companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries have suffered significant setbacks in late-stage clinical trials even after achieving promising results in early- and mid-stage development. Accordingly, the results from the completed pre-clinical studies and clinical trials for our product candidates may not be predictive of the results we may obtain in later stage trials. Our clinical trials may produce negative or inconclusive results, and we may decide, or regulators may require us, to conduct additional clinical and/or pre-clinical trials, or to even terminate the development program entirely. Many companies that believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in pre-clinical and clinical studies have nonetheless failed to obtain FDA or EMA, or other regulatory agency, approval for their products. In addition, we or regulatory authorities may suspend our clinical trials at any time if it appears that we are exposing participants to unacceptable health risks or if the regulatory authorities find deficiencies in our regulatory submissions or the conduct of such trials. Any suspension of clinical trials will delay possible regulatory approval, if any, and adversely impact our ability to develop products and generate revenue.

Upon the completion of any clinical or pre-clinical trial and/or tests, the results might not support the desired indications for use. Further, success in earlier clinical trials does not ensure that later clinical trials will be successful, and the results of later clinical trials may not replicate the results of prior clinical trials or pre-clinical testing. In addition, the design of a clinical trial can determine whether its results will support approval of a product, and flaws in the design of a clinical trial or variability in interpretation of results may not become apparent until the clinical trial is well advanced. The clinical trial process may fail to demonstrate that Aramchol or any other product candidate is sufficiently safe and/or effective for the indications we seek to receive FDA or other regulatory approval. Any such failure may cause us to abandon Aramchol or any other product candidate and may delay development of other potential product candidates. Any delay in, or termination or suspension of, our clinical trials may delay the requisite filings with the FDA or other regulatory agencies and, ultimately, our ability to commercialize Aramchol or any other product candidate and generate product revenues. If the results of the ARMOR Study or any other study, including in any interim readout, are not sufficiently compelling, then the completion of development of our product candidates may be significantly delayed or abandoned which would have material adverse effect on our business, liquidity, operating results and financial condition and may force us to cease operations.

We have in the past and, subject to our strategic review, may in the future develop Aramchol in combination with investigational therapies. We will not be able to market and sell Aramchol or any product candidate we develop in combination with an unapproved therapy for a combination indication if that unapproved therapy does not ultimately obtain marketing approval either alone or in combination with our product candidate. In addition, unapproved therapies face the same risks described with respect to Aramchol or any other product candidate currently in development and clinical trials, including the potential for serious adverse effects, delay in their clinical trials and lack of FDA, EMA or MHRA approval. If the FDA, EMA, MHRA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities do not approve these other drugs or revoke their approval of, or if safety, efficacy, quality, manufacturing or supply issues arise with the product candidates we choose to evaluate in combination with our product candidate we develop, we may be unable to obtain approval of or market such combination therapy.

Liver biopsy is the standard approach for the diagnosis of inflammation and fibrosis associated with NASH. However, the procedure-related morbidity and, in rare cases, mortality, sample errors, costs, patient discomfort and thus lack of patient interest in undergoing the procedure limit its use. As such, only patients with a high risk of NASH, which includes patients with metabolic syndrome and an indication of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, or NAFLD, are generally sent for liver biopsy. Because NASH tends to be asymptomatic until the disease progresses, many individuals with NASH remain undiagnosed until the disease has reached its late stages, if at all. The lack of a reliable non-invasive method for the diagnosis of NASH and fibrosis is likely to present a major challenge to Aramchol's market penetration, as many practitioners and patients may not be aware that a patient suffers from NASH and requires treatment. As such, use of Aramchol might not be as wide-spread as our actual target market and this may limit the commercial potential of Aramchol. A further challenge to Aramchol's market penetration is that currently a liver biopsy is the standard approach for measuring improvement in NASH patients. Because it would be impractical to subject all patients that take Aramchol, when and if it is approved, to regular and repeated liver biopsies, it will be difficult to demonstrate Aramchol's effectiveness to practitioners and patients unless and until a reliable non-invasive method for the diagnosis and monitoring of NASH becomes available, as to which there can be no assurance. While other companies in the industry are currently working on advancing non-invasive diagnostic approaches, none of these has been clinically validated, and the timetable for commercial validation, if at all, is uncertain. Moreover, such diagnostics may also be subject to regulation by FDA or other regulatory authorities as medical devices and may require premarket clearance or approval. See also "Item 3. Key Information-Risk Factors -Risk Factors-Risks Related to Our Business, Industry and Regulatory Requirements -- We are developing Aramchol for the treatment of NASH, an indication for which there are no approved products, and there is significant uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval process. This makes it difficult to predict the timing and costs of the clinical development of Aramchol for the treatment of NASH."

Our Amilo-5MER program is being conducted under a license agreement from Yissum and is subject to various additional obligations, including obligations with respect to funding, development and commercialization activities, and payment obligations upon entering into the license agreement and achievement of certain milestones and royalties on product sales. Furthermore, if the license agreement is terminated or breached, we may: - lose our rights to research, develop or commercialize Amilo-5MER;         - not be able to secure trade secret protection for Amilo-5MER;- experience significant delays in the development or commercialization of Amilo-5MER; or may have to cease development entirely;         - incur liability for damages. Additionally, even if not terminated or breached, our intellectual property licenses may be subject to disagreements over contract interpretation which could narrow the scope of our rights to the relevant intellectual property or technology or increase our financial or other obligations. If we experience any of the foregoing, it could have a materially adverse effect on our business. In January 2022, we announced the completion of our Phase 1 clinical trial of Amilo-5MER. The Phase 1 study was conducted in a single-center, using a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled design. Results demonstrated that all doses of Amilo-5MER were well tolerated with no clinically significant adverse events and none considered related to the investigational product. Due to its early stage of development, Amilo-5MER will require significant additional research, development, manufacturing, preclinical and clinical testing, marketing authorization, and commitment of significant additional resources prior to any commercialization. These activities will require significant cash for which we will need to raise additional capital. In addition, Amilo-5MER is prone to the risks of failure inherent in pharmaceutical product development, including the possibility that Amilo-5MER will not be shown to be sufficiently safe and effective for approval by regulatory authorities.