EFG International (EFGXY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reiterated confident guidance for the 2026–28 cycle, pointing to record scale (AUM now >CHF 200bn after the Quilvest close) and strong organic momentum — net new assets CHF 5.7bn (6.2% annualized, above the 4–6% target and the 15th consecutive semester of positive NNA) — and to translating that into profitability: H1 IFRS net profit CHF 185m, operating income >CHF 850m (+7% y/y), return on tangible equity 22.4% (ahead of the 20% 2028 target) and a target of ~15% p.a. bottom‑line growth/15% CAGR in IFRS profit to 2028. They expect a medium‑term revenue margin around 90–91bps (91bps reported H1; ~90bps excl. life insurance), with commission margin improving to 46bps and mandate penetration at 67% (net commission income +20% y/y) while the interest‑related component sits near 28bps and other income ~16bps. On costs, headline expenses were +8% y/y (driven by acquisitions) but excluding acquisitions costs were flat; cost‑to‑income improved to 71.5% (‑1.6pp vs H2 2025) and is expected to reach 68% by 2028 with annual reductions of ~1.5–2pp, supported by Simplicity 2.0 (CHF 70–80m run‑rate savings by 2028, ~CHF 15–20m expected in 2026, about half identified to date) and a full tech migration in H1 2027 to crystallize synergies. Capital and hiring guidance: organic capital generation ~230bps in H1, CET1 >15% (15% at 30 June), total capital 18.3%, LCR 267%, 2m shares bought for employee plans, and active CRO hiring (39 onboarded, 33 offers pending, ~72 total signings/offers and AuM per CRO at CHF 360m) to fuel further growth.