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Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q3, 2023
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Sep 30, 2023, filed Nov 07, 2023
Risk Change Over Time
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1If securities analysts publish negative evaluations of our stock, or if they do not publish research or reports about our business or if they publish negative evaluations of our stock, business, the price of our stock and trading volume could decline.
The trading market for our common stock relies in part on the research and reports that industry or financial analysts publish about us or our business. If one or more of the analysts covering our business downgrade their evaluations of our stock, or if we fail to meet the expectations of analysts, the price of our stock could decline. If one or more of these analysts cease to cover our stock, we could lose visibility in the market for our stock, which in turn could cause our stock price or trading volume to decline.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2We have not paid and do not expect to pay any dividends for the foreseeable future. Any return on investment may be limited to the value of our common stock. Investors may never obtain a return on their investment.
We have never paid cash dividends on our common stock and do not anticipate that we will pay any dividends in the foreseeable future. We currently intend to retain our future earnings, if any, to maintain and expand our existing operations. If we do not pay dividends, our common stock may be less valuable because a return on your investment will only occur if our stock price appreciates, which may never occur.
Risk Highlights Q3, 2023
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 75
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 1Due to the significant resources required for the development of our programs, and depending on our ability to access capital, we must prioritize development of certain product candidates. Moreover, we may expend our limited resources on programs that do not yield a successful product candidate and fail to capitalize on product candidates or indications that may be more profitable or for which there is a greater likelihood of success.
We have a diversified portfolio with numerous programs at various stages of research, discovery, preclinical and clinical development. These programs require significant capital investment. We seek to maintain a process of prioritization and resource allocation to maintain an optimal balance between aggressively advancing lead programs and replenishing our portfolio. We regularly review the programs in our portfolio, and terminate those programs which do not meet our development criteria, which we have done a number of times in the past. Due to the significant resources required for the development of our programs, we must focus our programs on specific diseases and disease pathways and decide which product candidates to pursue and advance and the amount of resources to allocate to each. Our decisions concerning the allocation of research, development, collaboration, management and financial resources toward particular product candidates or therapeutic areas may not lead to the development of any viable commercial product and may divert resources away from better opportunities. Similarly, our potential decisions to delay, terminate or collaborate with third parties in respect of certain programs may subsequently also prove to be suboptimal and could cause us to miss valuable opportunities. If we make incorrect determinations regarding the viability or market potential of any of our programs or product candidates or misread trends in the biopharmaceutical industry, in particular for neurodegenerative diseases, our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects could be materially adversely affected. As a result, we may fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities, be required to forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates or other diseases and disease pathways that may later prove to have greater commercial potential than those we choose to pursue, or relinquish valuable rights to such product candidates through collaboration, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been advantageous for us to invest additional resources to retain sole development and commercialization rights.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 2Drug development is a highly uncertain undertaking and involves a substantial degree of risk. We have never generated any revenue from product sales, and we may never generate product revenue or be profitable.
We have no products approved for commercial sale and have not generated any revenue from product sales. To obtain revenue from the sales of our product candidates that are significant or large enough to achieve profitability, we must succeed, either alone or with third parties, in developing, obtaining regulatory approval for, manufacturing and marketing therapies with significant commercial success. Our ability to generate revenue and achieve profitability depends significantly on many factors, including: - successfully completing research and preclinical and clinical development of our product candidates;- obtaining regulatory approvals and marketing authorizations for product candidates for which we successfully complete clinical development and clinical trials;- developing a sustainable and scalable manufacturing process for our product candidates, including those that utilize our TV platform, as well as establishing and maintaining commercially viable supply relationships with third parties that can provide adequate products and services to support clinical activities and commercial demand of our product candidates;- identifying, assessing, acquiring and/or developing new product candidates;- negotiating favorable terms in any collaboration, licensing or other arrangements into which we may enter;- launching and successfully commercializing product candidates for which we obtain regulatory and marketing approval, either by collaborating with a partner or, if launched independently, by establishing a sales, marketing and distribution infrastructure;- obtaining and maintaining an adequate price for our product candidates, both in the United States and in foreign countries where our products are commercialized;- obtaining adequate reimbursement for our product candidates from payors;- obtaining market acceptance of our product candidates as viable treatment options;- addressing any competing technological and market developments;- receiving milestone and other payments under our current and any future collaboration arrangements;- maintaining, protecting, expanding and enforcing our portfolio of intellectual property rights;- attracting, hiring and retaining qualified personnel;- general economic conditions, including conditions resulting from rising inflation and interest rates, recent bank failures and instability in the financial services sector, geopolitical uncertainty and instability or war; and - addressing any delays in our clinical trials or other impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the numerous risks and uncertainties associated with drug development, we are unable to predict the timing or amount of our expenses, or when we will be able to generate any meaningful revenue or achieve or maintain profitability, if ever. In addition, our expenses could increase beyond our current expectations if we are required by the FDA, or foreign regulatory agencies, to perform studies in addition to those that we currently anticipate, or if there are any delays in any of our current or our future collaborators' clinical trials or the development of any of our product candidates. Even if one or more of our product candidates is approved for commercial sale, we anticipate incurring significant costs associated with commercializing any approved product candidate and ongoing compliance efforts. Even if we are able to generate revenue from the sale of any approved products, we may not become profitable and may need to obtain additional funding to continue operations. Revenue from the sale of any product candidate for which regulatory approval is obtained will be dependent, in part, upon the size of the markets in the territories for which we gain regulatory approval, the accepted price for the product, the ability to get reimbursement at any price and whether we own the commercial rights for that territory. If the number of addressable patients is not as significant as we anticipate, the indication approved by regulatory authorities is narrower than we expect, or the reasonably accepted population for treatment is narrowed by competition, physician choice or treatment guidelines, we may not generate significant revenue from sales of such products, even if approved. Even if we do achieve profitability, we may not be able to sustain or increase profitability on a quarterly or annual basis. Our failure to become and remain profitable would decrease the value of our company and could impair our ability to raise capital, expand our business, maintain our research and development efforts, diversify our pipeline of product candidates or continue our operations and cause a decline in the value of our common stock, all or any of which may adversely affect our viability.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 3Research and development of biopharmaceutical products is inherently risky. We are heavily dependent on the successful development of our BBB platform technology and the programs currently in our pipeline, which are in preclinical and clinical development stages. We cannot give any assurance that any of our product candidates will receive regulatory, including marketing approval, which is necessary before they can be commercialized.
We are at an early stage of development of many of the product candidates currently in our programs and are further developing our BBB platform technology. To date, we have invested substantially all of our efforts and financial resources to identify, acquire intellectual property for, and develop our BBB platform technology and our programs, including conducting preclinical studies and clinical trials, and providing general and administrative support for these operations. Our future success is dependent on our ability to successfully develop, obtain regulatory approval for, and then successfully commercialize our product candidates, and we may fail to do so for many reasons, including the following: - our product candidates may not successfully complete preclinical studies or clinical trials;- our drug delivery platform technology may not be clinically viable;- a product candidate may on further study be shown to have harmful side effects or other characteristics that indicate it is unlikely to be effective or otherwise does not meet applicable regulatory criteria;- our competitors may develop therapeutics that render our product candidates obsolete or less attractive;- our competitors may develop platform technologies to deliver large molecule therapeutics across the BBB that render our platform technology obsolete or less attractive;- the product candidates and BBB platform technology that we develop may not be sufficiently covered by intellectual property for which we hold exclusive rights;- the product candidates and BBB platform technology that we develop may be covered by third parties' patents or other intellectual property or exclusive rights;- the market for a product candidate may change so that the continued development of that product candidate is no longer reasonable or commercially attractive;- a product candidate may not be capable of being produced in commercial quantities at an acceptable cost, or at all;- if a product candidate obtains regulatory approval, we may be unable to establish sales and marketing capabilities, or successfully market such approved product candidate; and - a product candidate may not be accepted as safe and effective by patients, the medical community or third-party payors, if applicable. If any of these events occur, we may be forced to abandon our development efforts for a program or programs, which would have a material adverse effect on our business. We may not be successful in our efforts to further develop our BBB platform technology and current product candidates. We are not permitted to market or promote any of our product candidates before we receive regulatory approval from the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities, and we may never receive such regulatory approval for any of our product candidates. Our product candidates are in the early stages of development and will require significant additional clinical development, management of preclinical, clinical, and manufacturing activities, regulatory approval, adequate manufacturing supply, a commercial organization, and significant marketing efforts before we generate any revenue from product sales, if at all. We have never completed a clinical development program. We have previously discontinued the development of certain molecules prior to completion of preclinical development because we did not believe they met our criteria for potential clinical success. Further, we cannot be certain that any of our product candidates will be successful in clinical trials. For instance, in August 2023, together with our collaboration partner Takeda, we discontinued development of TAK-920/DNL919 (ATV:TREM2) in Alzheimer's disease based on data from the Phase 1 study and the rapidly evolving treatment landscape and shifted our efforts to exploring back-up molecules. We may in the future advance product candidates into clinical trials and terminate such trials prior to their completion. If any of our product candidates successfully complete clinical trials, we generally plan to seek regulatory approval to market our product candidates in the United States, the European Union ("EU"), and in additional foreign countries where we believe there is a viable commercial opportunity. We have never commenced, compiled or submitted an application seeking regulatory approval to market any product candidate, and may never receive such regulatory approval even if a product candidate successfully completes clinical trials, which would adversely affect our viability. To obtain regulatory approval in countries outside the United States, we must comply with numerous and varying regulatory requirements of such other countries regarding safety, efficacy or potency, purity, chemistry, manufacturing and controls, clinical trials, commercial sales, pricing, and distribution of our product candidates. We may also rely on our collaborators or partners to conduct the required activities to support an application for regulatory approval, and to seek approval, for one or more of our product candidates. We cannot be sure that our collaborators or partners will conduct these activities or do so within the time frame we desire. Even if we (or our collaborators or partners) are successful in obtaining approval in one jurisdiction, we cannot ensure that we will obtain approval in any other jurisdictions. If we are unable to obtain approval for our product candidates in multiple jurisdictions, our revenue, business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects could be negatively affected. Even if we receive regulatory approval to market any of our product candidates, whether for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases or other diseases, we cannot assure you that any such product candidate will be successfully commercialized, widely accepted in the marketplace or more effective than other commercially available alternatives. Investment in biopharmaceutical product development involves significant risk that any product candidate will fail to demonstrate adequate efficacy or potency, or an acceptable safety profile, gain regulatory approval, and become commercially viable. We cannot provide any assurance that we will be able to successfully advance any of our product candidates through the development process or, if approved, successfully commercialize any of our product candidates.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 4We may not be successful in our efforts to continue to create a pipeline of product candidates or to develop commercially successful products. If we fail to successfully identify and develop additional product candidates, our commercial opportunity may be limited.
One of our strategies is to identify and pursue clinical development of additional product candidates. We currently have several programs in the research, discovery and preclinical stages of development. Identifying, developing, obtaining regulatory approval and commercializing additional product candidates for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases will require substantial additional funding and is prone to the risks of failure inherent in drug development. We cannot provide you any assurance that we will be able to successfully identify or acquire additional product candidates, advance any of these additional product candidates through the development process, successfully commercialize any such additional product candidates, if approved, or assemble sufficient resources to identify, acquire, develop or, if approved, commercialize additional product candidates. If we are unable to successfully identify, acquire, develop and commercialize additional product candidates, our commercial opportunity may be limited.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 5We have concentrated a substantial portion of our research and development efforts on the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, a field that has seen limited success in drug development. Further, our product candidates are based on new approaches and novel technology, which makes it difficult to predict the time and cost of product candidate development and subsequently obtaining regulatory approval.
We have focused our research and development efforts on addressing neurodegenerative diseases. Collectively, efforts by biopharmaceutical companies in the field of neurodegenerative diseases have seen limited success in drug development. There are few effective therapeutic options available for patients with Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, ALS and other neurodegenerative diseases. Our future success is highly dependent on the successful development of our BBB platform technology and our product candidates for treating neurodegenerative diseases. Developing and, if approved, commercializing our product candidates for treatment of neurodegenerative diseases subjects us to a number of challenges, including engineering product candidates to cross the BBB to enable optimal concentration of the therapeutic in the brain and obtaining regulatory approval from the FDA and other regulatory authorities who have only a limited set of precedents to rely on. Our approach to the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases aims to identify and select targets with a genetic link to neurodegenerative diseases, identify and develop molecules that engage the intended target, identify and develop biomarkers, which are biological molecules found in blood, other bodily fluids or tissues that are signs of a normal or abnormal process or of a condition or disease, to select the right patient population and demonstrate target engagement, pathway engagement and impact on disease progression of our molecules, and engineer our molecules to cross the BBB and act directly in the brain. This strategy may not prove to be successful. We may not be able to discover, develop and utilize biomarkers to demonstrate target engagement, pathway engagement and the impact on disease progression of our molecules. We cannot be sure that our approach will yield satisfactory therapeutic products that are safe and effective, scalable, or profitable. Moreover, public perception of drug safety issues, including adoption of new therapeutics or novel approaches to treatment, may adversely influence the willingness of subjects to participate in clinical trials, or if approved, of physicians to subscribe to novel treatments.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 6We may encounter substantial delays in our clinical trials, or may not be able to conduct or complete our clinical trials on the timelines we expect, if at all.
Clinical testing is expensive, time consuming, and subject to uncertainty. We cannot guarantee that any clinical trials will be conducted as planned or completed on schedule, if at all. We cannot be sure that submission of an investigational new drug application ("IND"), or a clinical trial application ("CTA"), will result in the FDA or EMA, as applicable, allowing clinical trials to begin in a timely manner, if at all. Moreover, even if these trials begin, issues may arise that could suspend or terminate such clinical trials. A failure of one or more clinical trials can occur at any stage of testing, and our future clinical trials may not be successful. Events that may prevent successful or timely initiation or completion of clinical trials include: - inability to generate sufficient preclinical, toxicology, or other in vivo or in vitro data to support the initiation or continuation of clinical trials;- delays in confirming target engagement, patient selection or other relevant biomarkers to be utilized in preclinical and clinical product candidate development;- delays in reaching a consensus with regulatory agencies on trial design;- delays in reaching agreement on acceptable terms with prospective CROs and clinical trial sites, the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and clinical trial sites;- delays in identifying, recruiting and training suitable clinical investigators;- delays in obtaining required Institutional Review Board ("IRB") approval at each clinical trial site;- imposition of a temporary or permanent clinical hold by regulatory agencies for a number of reasons, including after review of an IND or amendment, CTA or amendment, or equivalent application or amendment; as a result of a new safety finding that presents unreasonable risk to clinical trial participants; a negative finding from an inspection of our clinical trial operations or trial sites; developments on trials conducted by competitors for related technology that raises FDA or EMA concerns about risk to patients of the technology broadly; or if the FDA or EMA finds that the investigational protocol or plan is clearly deficient to meet its stated objectives;- delays in identifying, recruiting and enrolling suitable patients to participate in our clinical trials, and delays caused by patients withdrawing from clinical trials or failing to return for post-treatment follow-up;- difficulty collaborating with patient groups and investigators;- failure by our CROs, other third parties, or us to adhere to clinical trial requirements;- failure to perform in accordance with the FDA's or any other regulatory authority's current good clinical practices ("cGCPs") requirements, or other regulatory guidelines in other countries;- occurrence of adverse events associated with the product candidate that are viewed to outweigh its potential benefits;- changes in regulatory requirements and guidance that require amending or submitting new clinical protocols;- changes in the approval policies or regulations of the FDA or other regulatory authorities;- changes in the standard of care on which a clinical development plan was based, which may require new or additional trials;- the cost of clinical trials of our product candidates being greater than we anticipate;- clinical trials of our product candidates producing negative or inconclusive results, which may result in our deciding, or regulators requiring us, to conduct additional clinical trials or abandon product development programs;- transfer of manufacturing processes from our academic collaborators to larger-scale facilities operated by a CDMO or by us, and delays or failure by our CDMOs or us to make any necessary changes to such manufacturing process;- delays in manufacturing, testing, releasing, validating, or importing/exporting sufficient stable quantities of our product candidates for use in clinical trials or the inability to do any of the foregoing; and - delays associated with a pandemic or other public health emergency. Any inability to successfully initiate or complete clinical trials could result in additional costs to us or impair our ability to generate revenue. In addition, if we make manufacturing or formulation changes to our product candidates, we may be required to or we may elect to conduct additional studies to bridge our modified product candidates to earlier versions. Clinical trial delays could also shorten any periods during which our products have patent protection and may allow our competitors to bring products to market before we do, which could impair our ability to successfully commercialize our product candidates and may harm our business and results of operations. We could also encounter delays if a clinical trial is suspended or terminated by us, by the data safety monitoring board for such trial or by any regulatory authority, or if the IRBs of the institutions in which such trials are being conducted suspend or terminate the participation of their clinical investigators and sites subject to their review. Such authorities may suspend or terminate a clinical trial due to a number of factors, including failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements or our clinical protocols, inspection of the clinical trial operations or trial site by the FDA, EMA or other regulatory authorities resulting in the imposition of a clinical hold, unforeseen safety issues or adverse side effects, failure to demonstrate a benefit from using a product candidate, changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions or lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial. For example, in January 2022, we announced that the TAK-920/DNL919 (ATV:TREM2) IND application had been placed on clinical hold by the FDA. In August 2023 we announced that, in agreement with Takeda, we would discontinue clinical development of TAK-920/DNL919 in Alzheimer's disease. We cannot assure you that we will ever resume the clinical program for TAK-920/DNL919, nor can we assure you that our other product candidates will not be subject to new, partial or full clinical holds in the future, which may impact development plans. Refer to "Item 1. Business-Our Programs" of Form 10-K for a more detailed discussion of adverse effects ("AEs") and significant adverse effects ("SAEs") observed in our reported clinical trials for BIIB122/DNL151 and DNL310. We may in the future advance product candidates into clinical trials and terminate such trials prior to their completion, which could adversely affect our business. Further, after the commencement of clinical trials, we may discontinue advancement of lead molecules, such as the TAK-920/DNL919 program, or pause the advancement of lead molecules in favor of a backup molecule with a superior safety or efficacy profile, such as we did in our RIPK1 program, switching our focus from DNL747 to SAR443820/DNL788. Delays in the completion of any clinical trial of our product candidates will increase our costs, slow down our product candidate development and approval process and delay or potentially jeopardize our ability to commence product sales and generate revenue. In addition, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of our product candidates.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 7We may encounter difficulties enrolling and/or retaining patients in our clinical trials, and our clinical development activities could thereby be delayed or otherwise adversely affected.
The timely completion of clinical trials in accordance with their protocols depends, among other things, on our ability to enroll a sufficient number of patients who remain in the trial until its conclusion. We may experience difficulties in patient enrollment and retention in our clinical trials for a variety of reasons, including: - public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic;- the size and nature of the patient population;- the patient eligibility criteria defined in the protocol, including biomarker-driven identification and/or certain highly-specific criteria related to stage of disease progression, which may limit the patient populations eligible for our clinical trials to a greater extent than competing clinical trials for the same indication that do not have biomarker-driven patient eligibility criteria;- the size of the study population required for analysis of the trial's primary endpoints;- the proximity of patients to a trial site;- the design of the trial;- our ability to recruit clinical trial investigators with the appropriate competencies and experience;- competing clinical trials for similar therapies or targeting patient populations meeting our patient eligibility criteria;- clinicians' and patients' perceptions as to the potential advantages and side effects of the product candidate being studied in relation to other available therapies and product candidates;- our ability to obtain and maintain patient consents; and - the risk that patients enrolled in clinical trials will not complete such trials, for any reason, including the risk of higher drop-out rates if participants become infected with the COVID-19 virus or other infectious diseases that impact their participation in our trials. Our inability to enroll and retain a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials would result in significant delays or may require us to abandon one or more clinical trials altogether. Enrollment delays in our clinical trials may result in increased development costs for our product candidates and jeopardize our ability to obtain marketing approval for the sale of our product candidates. Furthermore, even if we are able to enroll a sufficient number of patients for our clinical trials, we may have difficulty maintaining participation in our clinical trials through the treatment and any follow-up periods, which could delay or negatively impact the anticipated readouts from our clinical trials, delay our regulatory submissions, and increase the costs of the clinical trials.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 8Our clinical trials may reveal significant adverse events, toxicities, or other side effects and may fail to demonstrate substantial evidence of the safety and efficacy or potency of our product candidates, which would prevent, delay or limit the scope of regulatory approval and commercialization.
Before obtaining regulatory approvals for the commercial sale of any of our product candidates, we must demonstrate through lengthy, complex and expensive preclinical studies and clinical trials that our product candidates are both safe and effective for use in each target indication. For those product candidates that are subject to regulation as biological drug products, we will need to demonstrate that they are safe, pure, and potent for use in their target indications. Each product candidate must demonstrate an adequate risk versus benefit profile in its intended patient population and for its intended use. Clinical testing is expensive and can take many years to complete, and its outcome is inherently uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the clinical trial process. The results of preclinical studies of our product candidates may not be predictive of the results of early-stage or later-stage clinical trials, and results of early clinical trials of our product candidates may not be predictive of the results of later-stage clinical trials. The results of clinical trials in one set of patients or disease indications may not be predictive of those obtained in another. In some instances, there can be significant variability in safety or efficacy or potency results between different clinical trials of the same product candidate due to numerous factors, including changes in trial procedures set forth in protocols, differences in the size and type of the patient populations, changes in and adherence to the dosing regimen and other clinical trial protocols and the rate of dropout among clinical trial participants. Open-label extension studies may also extend the timing and increase the cost of clinical development substantially. Product candidates in later stages of clinical trials may fail to show the desired safety and efficacy or potency profile despite having progressed through preclinical studies and initial clinical trials. A number of companies in the biopharmaceutical industry have suffered significant setbacks in advanced clinical trials due to lack of efficacy or potency or unacceptable safety issues, notwithstanding promising results in earlier trials. This is particularly true in neurodegenerative diseases, where failure rates historically have been higher than in many other disease areas. Most product candidates that begin clinical trials are never approved by regulatory authorities for commercialization. We cannot be certain that our current clinical trials or any other future clinical trials will be successful. Additionally, any safety concerns observed in any one of our clinical trials in our targeted indications could limit the prospects for regulatory approval of our product candidates in those and other indications, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects. Even if such clinical trials are successfully completed, we cannot guarantee that the FDA will approve the product candidates for the proposed indications, and more trials could be required before we submit our product candidates for approval. To the extent that the results of the trials are not satisfactory to the FDA or foreign regulatory authorities for support of a marketing application, we may be required to expend significant resources, which may not be available to us, or to conduct additional trials in support of potential approval of our product candidates. Even if regulatory approval is secured for any of our product candidates, the terms of such approval, such as requiring us to narrow our indications to a smaller subset, may also limit its commercial potential.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 9Interim, topline and preliminary data from our clinical trials that we announce or publish from time to time may change as more patient data become available, and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data.
From time to time, we may publicly disclose preliminary, interim or topline data from our nonclinical studies and clinical trials, which are based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular study or trial. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the topline results that we report may differ from future results of the same studies, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Topline data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the preliminary data we previously published. As a result, preliminary, interim, or topline data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. In addition, we may report interim analyses of only certain endpoints rather than all endpoints. Adverse changes between interim data and final data could significantly harm our business and prospects. Further, additional disclosure of interim data by us or by our competitors in the future could result in volatility in the price of our common stock. Further, others, including regulatory agencies, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular program, the approval or commercialization of the particular product candidate and our company in general. In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is typically selected from a more extensive amount of available information. You or others may not agree with what we determine is the material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure, and any information we determine not to disclose may ultimately be deemed significant with respect to future decisions, conclusions, views, activities or otherwise regarding a particular product candidate or our business. If the preliminary or topline data that we report differ from late, final or actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize our product candidates may be harmed.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 10We are in the clinical stages of drug development and have a limited operating history and no products approved for commercial sale, which may make it difficult to evaluate our business and predict our future success and viability.
We are a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a limited operating history, focused on developing therapeutics for neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and ALS. We commenced operations in May 2015, have no products approved for commercial sale and have not generated any revenue from product sales. Drug development is a highly uncertain undertaking and involves a substantial degree of risk. Our clinical-stage programs are in various phases ranging from Phase 1 through Phase 3. We have not initiated clinical trials for any of our other current product candidates. To date, we have not completed a pivotal clinical trial, obtained marketing approval for any product candidates, manufactured a commercial scale product or arranged for a third party to do so on our behalf, or conducted sales and marketing activities necessary for successful product commercialization. Our limited operating history makes any assessment of our future success and viability subject to significant uncertainty. We will encounter risks and difficulties frequently experienced by clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies, and we have not yet demonstrated an ability to successfully overcome such risks and difficulties. If we do not address these risks and difficulties successfully, our business will suffer.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 11Our product candidates may cause undesirable side effects or have other properties that could halt their clinical development, prevent their regulatory approval, limit their commercial potential, or result in significant negative consequences.
Adverse events or other undesirable side effects caused by our product candidates could cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay, or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA, EMA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Our most advanced product candidates, BIIB122/DNL151, DNL310, SAR443820/DNL788, and eclitasertib or SAR443122/DNL758, DNL343, and TAK-594/DNL593 are currently our only clinical stage product candidates. Adverse events and other side effects may result from higher dosing, repeated dosing and/or longer-term exposure to our product candidates and could lead to delays and/or termination of the development of these product candidates. On January 13, 2022, we announced that the TAK-290/DNL919 (ATV:TREM2) IND application had been placed on clinical hold by the FDA. In August 2023 we announced that, in agreement with Takeda, we will discontinue clinical development of TAK-920/DNL919 in Alzheimer's disease. This is a strategic decision based on the totality of clinical data emerging from the single ascending dose Phase 1 study of TAK-920/DNL919 in healthy volunteers and in consideration of the rapidly evolving treatment landscape for Alzheimer's disease whereby an understanding of drug combinations with newly approved therapies will be important. In 2020, we paused clinical studies with DNL747 in our RIPK1 program. Chronic toxicity studies with DNL747 in cynomolgus monkeys showed dose- and duration-dependent adverse preclinical findings at exposures higher than those tested in the clinic. These findings, which are considered off-target and molecule-specific, may impact the ability to increase the dose of DNL747 and achieve higher levels of target inhibition without time consuming additional clinical safety studies in patients to evaluate the long-term safety and tolerability. Drug-related side effects could affect patient recruitment, the ability of enrolled patients to complete the trial, and/or result in potential product liability claims. We are required to maintain product liability insurance pursuant to certain of our license agreements. We may not be able to maintain insurance coverage at a reasonable cost or in sufficient amounts to protect us against losses due to liability. A successful product liability claim or series of claims brought against us could cause our stock price to decline and, if judgments exceed our insurance coverage, could adversely affect our results of operations and business. In addition, regardless of merit or eventual outcome, product liability claims may result in impairment of our business reputation, withdrawal of clinical trial participants, costs due to related litigation, distraction of management's attention from our primary business, initiation of investigations by regulators, substantial monetary awards to patients or other claimants, the inability to commercialize our product candidates, and decreased demand for our product candidates, if approved for commercial sale. Additionally, if one or more of our product candidates receives marketing approval, and we or others later identify undesirable side effects or adverse events caused by such products, a number of potentially significant negative consequences could result, including but not limited to: - regulatory authorities may withdraw approvals of such product and cause us to recall our product;- regulatory authorities may require additional warnings on the label;- we may be required to change the way the product is administered or conduct additional clinical trials or post-approval studies;- we may be required to create a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy plan to assure safe use;- we could be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients; and - our reputation may suffer. Any of these events could prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the particular product candidate, if approved, and could significantly harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and growth prospects. We cannot predict whether our product candidates will cause toxicities in humans that would preclude or lead to the revocation of regulatory approval based on nonclinical studies or early-stage clinical trials.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 12We currently and may in the future conduct clinical trials for our product candidates outside the United States, and the FDA, EMA, and applicable foreign regulatory authorities may not accept data from such trials.
We currently conduct clinical trials outside the United States, including in Europe, and may continue to do so in the future. The acceptance of data from clinical trials conducted outside the United States or another jurisdiction by the FDA, EMA or applicable foreign regulatory authority may be subject to certain conditions. In cases where data from foreign clinical trials are intended to serve as the basis for marketing approval in the United States, the FDA will generally not approve the application on the basis of foreign data alone unless (i) the data are applicable to the United States population and United States medical practice; and (ii) the trials were performed by clinical investigators of recognized competence and pursuant to cGCP regulations. Additionally, the FDA's clinical trial requirements, including sufficient size of patient populations and statistical powering, must be met. Many foreign regulatory bodies have similar approval requirements. In addition, such foreign trials would be subject to the applicable local laws of the foreign jurisdictions where the trials are conducted. There can be no assurance that the FDA, EMA or any applicable foreign regulatory authority will accept data from trials conducted outside of the United States or the applicable jurisdiction. If the FDA, EMA or any applicable foreign regulatory authority does not accept such data, it would result in the need for additional trials, which would be costly and time-consuming and delay aspects of our business plan, and which may result in our product candidates not receiving approval or clearance for commercialization in the applicable jurisdiction.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 13We have received orphan drug designation from the FDA for DNL310, and plan to seek orphan drug designation for additional product candidates, but we may be unable to obtain such designations or to maintain the benefits associated with orphan drug status, including market exclusivity, which may cause our revenue, if any, to be reduced.
Under the Orphan Drug Act, the FDA may grant orphan designation to a drug or biologic intended to treat a rare disease or condition where there is no reasonable expectation that the cost of developing and making available the drug or biologic in the United States will be recovered from sales in the United States for that drug or biologic. Once granted, orphan drug designation entitles a party to financial incentives and certain exclusivity protections. In February 2019, the FDA granted orphan drug designation for our DNL310 program in Hunter syndrome. However, the FDA can still approve other drugs that have a different active ingredient for use in treating the same indication or disease, and can waive orphan exclusivity if we are unable to manufacture sufficient supply of our product. We plan to seek orphan drug designations for some other product candidates, but we may be unable to obtain such designations. Further, in Catalyst Pharms., Inc. v. Becerra, 14 F.4th 1299 (11th Cir. 2021), the court disagreed with the FDA's longstanding position that the orphan drug exclusivity only applies to the approved use or indication within an eligible disease, and not to all uses or indications within the entire disease or condition. In particular, the circuit court held that the orphan-drug exclusivity for Catalyst's drug blocked FDA's approval of another drug for all uses or indications within the same orphan-designated disease, or Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS), even though Catalyst's drug was approved at that time only for use in the treatment of LEMS in adults. Accordingly, the court ordered the FDA to set aside the approval of a drug indicated for LEMS in children. This decision created uncertainty in the application of the orphan drug exclusivity. On January 24, 2023, the FDA published a notice in the Federal Register to clarify that while the agency complies with the court's order in Catalyst, the FDA intends to continue to apply its longstanding interpretation of the regulations to matters outside of the scope of the Catalyst order – that is, the agency will continue tying the scope of orphan-drug exclusivity to the uses or indications for which a drug is approved, which permits other sponsors to obtain approval of a drug for new uses or indications within the same orphan designated disease or condition that have not yet been approved. It is unclear how future litigation, legislation, agency decisions, and administrative actions will impact the scope of the orphan drug exclusivity.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.