Australia & New Zealand Banking (X5Z) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reiterated Phase‑1 guidance and gave metric‑led detail: H1 cash profit after tax was $3.8bn with return on tangible equity 11.6% (up 161bps) and CET1 12.39% (up 36bps); cost‑to‑income fell to 49.4% (from 54.6%) as productivity savings were upgraded to $875m (versus $800m) driving an expected ~5% FY26 reduction in costs from a $11.85bn FY25 baseline and keeping the ~$1.5bn investment envelope (investment spend ≈80% of expense); the interim dividend was maintained at $0.83/share with franking raised to 75% and the DRP neutralized. Credit and balance‑sheet settings were strengthened with a $126m collective provision charge this half (collective provision balance $4.45bn, coverage 1.22% up 4bps in the half and 9bps since Mar‑25), an individual provision charge of $148m (annualised loss rate 4bps vs long‑run ~11bps), deposits ex‑Markets +$11bn (+$20bn constant currency), save & transact +$16bn CCY, operational deposits +8% CCY (up 28% over 2 years), customer loans +$16bn CCY (Australia home loans +$5bn), markets income $1.1bn (+8%), revenue/RWA 4.88%, group NIM ~1.53% (replicating portfolio expected to add ~7bps over 12–18 months), and program milestones — Suncorp migration 34% complete (target 57% by FY‑end, finish Jun‑27) and single customer front end 13% complete (target 45% by FY‑end, delivery Sep‑27).