Vaalco Energy (VAW) AI Stock Analysis

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Vaalco Energy

(Frankfurt:VAW)

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Positive Factors

Multi-asset production growthProduction growth across Gabon, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire demonstrates improving operating performance and a diversified asset base. Higher volumes can expand revenue and operating cash generation, while the ongoing drilling portfolio provides several avenues for production to remain higher over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Severe profitability deteriorationThe sharp move from prior profitability to a substantial TTM loss weakens internal funding capacity and makes earnings less dependable. Continued pressure below gross profit could constrain investment flexibility and reduce the company’s ability to absorb operating or commodity-related volatility.

Vaalco Energy (VAW) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 571.19M
Dividend Yield: 4.48%
Average Volume (3M): 1,365
Price to Earnings (P/E): -3.7
Beta (1Y): -0.32
Revenue Growth: 5.35%
EPS Growth: -593.07%
Country: Germany
Employees: 281
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

VAALCO Energy, an independent oil and gas enterprise, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas resources. Its primary asset is the Etame production sharing contract, covering the offshore Etame...

Vaalco Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.21%|Next Earnings Date:May 10, 2023

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call had a strongly positive tone. Management reported more than 20% quarter-over-quarter production growth, a 30% increase in adjusted EBITDAX, successful drilling execution in Gabon and Egypt, the restart and expansion of Baobab in Cote d'Ivoire, and a substantial organic growth pipeline. The main challenges were hedging losses, negative 2026 free cash flow from development investment and FPSO refurbishment, freight volatility, potential near-term inflationary pressure, temporary Cote d'Ivoire shut-ins and approval and execution dependencies for Venus and CI-705. Highlights significantly outweighed lowlights.

Positive Updates

Production Increased More Than 20% Quarter Over Quarter

Q3 NRI production increased by over 20% quarter over quarter to just over 20.1 thousand barrels of oil per day, or 25.3 thousand working interest barrels of oil per day.

Negative Updates

Hedging Losses Reduced Q3 Results

The company recorded approximately $22 million of realized hedging losses in Q3 and an additional $35 million of unrealized derivative losses from marking positions to market. Approximately 33% of guided Q3 working interest barrels were hedged with costless collars.

Company Guidance

For Q4 2026, VAALCO expects NRI sales volumes to range between 21 thousand and 22.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, with the midpoint of guidance about 18% higher than Q3 actuals, and total production to be between 24.1 thousand and 26.3 thousand working interest BOE per day and between 18.8 thousand and 20.9 thousand NRI BOE per day, in line with Q3; absolute production cost is expected to be in the range of $25.50 to $28 per NRI barrel of oil equivalent, exploration expense between $3 million and $4 million, cash G&A between $7.5 million and $9.5 million, and capital spend between $55 million and $75 million, while offshore workover guidance is nil for the full year, Egypt’s continuous drilling program is expected to continue into the beginning of 27, and 2027 is expected to have a reduced capital spending profile, positive free cash flow generation later in the year, continued growth in the first half of 27, and minimal impact, in fact, probably no impact in 2027 from Venus development.

Vaalco Energy Risk Analysis

Vaalco Energy disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vaalco Energy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate20
Tech & Innovation1
Legal & Regulatory5
Production8
Ability to Sell1
Macro & Political9

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

DE:VAW against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SD	81Outperform	$466.81M	4.90	18.17%	5.39%	30.83%	47.54%
WTI	69Neutral	$447.65M	-9.29	25.13%	1.27%	20.26%	65.62%
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GPRK	53Neutral	$602.24M	7.28	23.64%	1.14%	-5.28%	106.07%
REI	51Neutral	$294.41M	-1.29	-25.11%	―	7.37%	-1098.94%
GTE	47Neutral	$334.71M	-1.25	-198.45%	―	2.69%	-289.33%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:VAW and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:VAW	Vaalco Energy	4.73	1.63	52.68%
GTE	Gran Tierra Energy Inc	9.79	5.42	124.03%
SD	Sandridge Energy	12.99	-0.91	-6.56%
WTI	W&t Offshore	3.16	1.27	66.84%
REI	Ring Energy Inc	1.18	0.19	19.80%
GPRK	GeoPark	9.32	1.52	19.43%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Vaalco Energy AI Stock Analysis