UCB SA (UNC0) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

UCB upgraded full-year guidance, now expecting revenue growth in the low‑teens to mid‑teens at constant exchange rates and adjusted EBITDA growth in the mid‑teens to low‑20s at CER, with a core tax rate around 15% and a target R&D spend of about 25% of sales for the year (noting some H2 phasing and the impact of the Neurona/Candid acquisitions). This follows a strong H1: total revenue EUR 4.3bn (+22% reported, +27% CER), net sales EUR 4.1bn (+23%), adjusted gross profit EUR 3.5bn (+27%, gross margin 82%), adjusted EBITDA EUR 1.7bn (+68%, 79% CER) and an H1 EBITDA margin of 40.7%; group profit was EUR 1.1bn and core EPS EUR 6.84, with net financial debt of EUR 2.8bn. Management flagged H2 headwinds/phasing including BRIVIACT loss of exclusivity (expected ~80% U.S. decline over 12 months and ~50% decline in Europe from August), the absence in H2 of ~EUR 100m prior‑year gross‑to‑net benefit that helped H1, and anticipated net‑price pressure from a large June access contract (with volume benefits expected later); EVENITY contributed EUR 379m to other operating income and is expected to grow faster than the top line, while BIMZELX peak sales are reiterated at at least EUR 7bn.