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TUI AG
(XETRA:TUI1)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
€7.50
▲(8.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and recently weaker free-cash-flow conversion, despite a clear recovery to profitability. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E), while technicals are mixed with the stock below key moving averages. The earnings call adds moderate support via reconfirmed EBIT guidance and improving bookings, but near-term disruptions, one-offs, and expected higher net debt temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Profitability recovery
The return to meaningful profitability improves internal funding capacity and demonstrates that TUI's integrated travel model can generate earnings after earlier loss years, supporting resilience across the leisure cycle.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
A debt-heavy capital structure leaves TUI more exposed to downturns in travel demand, interest costs, and operating volatility. It can also restrict investment flexibility and amplify earnings pressure when utilization weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability recovery
The return to meaningful profitability improves internal funding capacity and demonstrates that TUI's integrated travel model can generate earnings after earlier loss years, supporting resilience across the leisure cycle.
Read all positive factors
TUI AG (TUI1) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)
Market Cap
€3.59B
Dividend Yield1.38%
Average Volume (3M)2.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.2
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth-1.72%
EPS Growth-9.29%
CountryDE
Employees65,322
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding507,431,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,217,561
30 Day Avg. Volume2,371,859
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.16
P/FCF Ratio3.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€9.35Price Target Upside35.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)€23.56B
TUI AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TUI AG, through its various global subsidiaries, provides an extensive array of tourism services. The company's lodging portfolio features hotels and resorts operating under well-known brands such as Robinson, Riu, TUI Blue, Blue Diamond, TUI Sune...
How the Company Makes Money
TUI primarily makes money by packaging and selling leisure travel products and by operating travel assets that generate revenue from customers and other distribution partners. A major revenue stream is tour operating/package holidays: TUI sources ...
TUI AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but constructive picture: the company delivered a resilient and profitable quarter (Q3 EBIT EUR 86m, positive EPS), reconfirmed guidance, showed strong cruise performance and recent booking momentum (+7% booked revenue in last 4 weeks), and accelerated cost and digital transformation initiatives. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near-term headwinds — Q3 revenue down >5%, Markets & Airlines loss of ~EUR 65m, one-off charges (~EUR 81m) and expected net debt increase — driven by geopolitical disruptions, higher fuel costs and a temporary shift toward lower-margin dynamic bookings. Overall the narrative is cautiously optimistic: management believes the business is normalizing and the transformation will improve resilience, but material uncertainty remains into year end.Positive Updates
Q3 Profitability and Positive EPS
Q3 EBIT of EUR 86 million (positive) and a positive Q3 EPS, marking profitability in the quarter versus recent years and reflecting improved operational resilience.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline in Q3
Q3 revenues of roughly EUR 6.0 billion were more than 5% below prior year, reflecting significant short-term market disruption.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q3 Profitability and Positive EPS
Q3 EBIT of EUR 86 million (positive) and a positive Q3 EPS, marking profitability in the quarter versus recent years and reflecting improved operational resilience.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TUI reconfirmed full‑year EBIT guidance of €1.1–1.4bn; Q3 revenues were ~€6bn (>5% below prior year) with positive Q3 EBIT of €86m, and 9‑month results are €40m down (revenues -1.5%) once direct one‑offs are included. Management flagged €60m of Iran/ship repatriation costs plus €21m for Jamaica (≈€81m total), a €65m YTD hit in Markets & Airlines, airline occupancy at 91%, cruise capacity +12% with occupancy above last year (Mein Schiff NPS 95% and >100% occupancy including extra beds), hotels ~3% behind last year, and booked revenue up 7% in the last four weeks. They lowered 2026 net investments to €810–830m (from €860–900m), expect interest at the lower end, anticipate net debt to be higher versus last year due to Boeing deliveries/asset financing, and said late‑season momentum and working‑capital seasonality underpin the guidance.TUI AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 23.79B | 24.18B | 23.17B | 20.67B | 16.54B | 4.73B |
| Gross Profit | 1.95B | 2.22B | 1.95B | 1.61B | 931.60M | -1.22B |
| EBITDA | 1.87B | 1.84B | 2.22B | 1.44B | 1.08B | -1.27B |
| Net Income | 601.30M | 635.90M | 507.10M | 305.80M | -212.60M | -2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.52B | 18.48B | 17.42B | 16.15B | 15.26B | 14.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.23B | 3.13B | 2.21B | 2.11B | 1.82B | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 4.58B | 4.44B | 4.54B | 4.22B | 5.20B | 6.48B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.67B | 15.79B | 15.64B | 14.21B | 14.61B | 14.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.76B | 956.40M | 1.12B | -141.60M | -1.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 409.50M | 989.60M | 1.20B | 971.10M | 1.56B | -451.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.73B | 1.91B | 1.64B | 2.08B | -151.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -855.40M | -771.70M | -604.30M | -492.20M | -308.20M | 704.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -832.40M | -656.90M | -531.40M | -834.60M | -1.63B | -233.50M |
TUI AG Technical Analysis
Negative
6.92
Price Trends
7.23
Negative
7.00
Positive
7.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
44.88
Neutral
26.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DE:TUI1, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.33, below the 50-day MA of 7.23, and below the 200-day MA of 7.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DE:TUI1.
TUI AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
DE:TUI1
TUI AG
7.27
-1.61
-18.14%
DE:HOC
HolidayCheck
4.30
0.23
5.60%
DE:EAD
Erlebnis Akademie AG
3.80
-0.54
-12.44%
DE:KVO
Oberstdorfer Bergbahn AG
234.00
54.00
30.00%
DE:CDZ0
MHP Hotel AG
1.32
-0.15
-10.20%
DE:MTP
Munchener Tierpark Hellabrunn AG
252.00
-22.00
-8.03%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.