Sonic Healthcare (SAB0) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance for FY2027 is for constant‑currency EBITDA of AUD 1.95–2.03 billion (note this excludes ~AUD 30 million of back‑office IT transformation costs), with depreciation forecast at AUD 810–825 million, amortisation AUD 90–95 million, interest expense expected to rise ~6% versus FY2026 and an effective tax rate of ~27%; the guidance assumes only completed acquisitions, no future regulatory changes (PAMA fee cuts excluded), current interest rates and excludes any property sale gains. Management expects the U.S. operating review to contribute c. AUD 25–30 million to FY2027 earnings, while a Swiss regulatory fee change is estimated to reduce FY2027 revenue by CHF 20 million (≈3% of Swiss revenue); foreign‑exchange movements at current spot rates could imply a c. AUD 40–50 million headwind to group EBITDA. Capital discipline remains a priority: maintenance CapEx is around 3% of revenue (FY2026 maintenance CapEx ~AUD 351 million), property‑related CapEx is expected to fall from FY2028 levels, the medium‑term dividend payout target is 70–80% of net profit (FY2026 full‑year dividend AUD 1.08, final AUD 0.63, 60% franked), and balance‑sheet metrics include a FY2026 net debt cover ratio of 2.2 and available headroom of ~AUD 1.6 billion pre‑dividend.