Shell (UK) (R6C0) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q4, 2021
Risk Change Over Time
- Regulation - Risk 1Violations of trade compliance laws and regulations, including sanctions, carry fines and expose us and our employees to criminal proceedings and civil suits.
We use “trade compliance” as an umbrella term for various national and international laws designed to regulate the movement of items across national boundaries and restrict or prohibit trade and other dealings with certain parties. For example, the EU and the USA continue to impose comprehensive sanctions on countries and territories such as Syria, North Korea and Crimea, and continue to adopt targeted restrictions and prohibitions on certain transactions in countries such as Venezuela and Russia. The USA continues to have comprehensive sanctions against Iran and Cuba. The EU and some nations continue to maintain targeted sanctions against Iran. The EU and the USA introduced sectoral sanctions against Venezuela in 2017, which the USA expanded in 2018 and 2019. The US sanctions primarily target the government of Venezuela and the oil industry. In 2014, the EU and the USA imposed additional restrictions and controls directed at defined oil and gas activities in Russia. These remain in force. The USA introduced further restrictions regarding Russia in 2017, expanding them in 2018. In February 2022, countries around the world began imposing additional sanctions and export controls against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine including, regional trade bans, designations of entities (including Russian banks and state-owned entities) and individuals as Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Parties (SDNs), and restrictions on access by Russia to financial systems. Export controls have also been introduced targeting Russian defence, aerospace, and maritime sectors. More sanctions and export controls are expected. A number of countries have also implemented new sanctions against Belarus for its role in the Russian invasion. Many other nations are also adopting trade compliance programmes similar to those administered by the EU and the USA. Since January 2021, the UK has maintained a legal framework for trade compliance that is separate and distinct from those of the EU and USA. Abiding by all the laws and regulations on trade compliance and sanctions can sometimes be complex and challenging because of factors such as: the expansion of sanctions; the frequent addition of prohibited parties; the number of markets in which we operate; the risk of differences in how jurisdictions apply sanctions; and the large number of transactions we process. Shell has voluntarily self-disclosed potential violations of sanctions in the past. The COVID-19 pandemic has increased trade compliance risks, because of factors such as growing state involvement in business dealings, the need to maintain and develop business opportunities and cross-border movement of goods and technologies, and the increasing likelihood that counterparties will change ownership as the economic crisis continues. Any violation of sanctions could lead to loss of import or export privileges and significant penalties on or prosecution of Shell or its employees. This could harm our reputation and have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
- Regulation - Risk 2Violations of anti-bribery, tax-evasion and anti-money laundering laws carry fines and expose us and/or our employees to criminal sanctions and civil suits.
Anti-bribery, tax-evasion and anti-money laundering laws apply to Shell, its joint arrangements and associates in all countries where we do business. Shell and its joint arrangements and associates have in the past settled with the US Securities and Exchange Commission regarding violations of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Any violation of anti-bribery, tax-evasion or anti-money laundering laws, including potential violations associated with Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited's investment in Nigerian oil block OPL 245 and the 2011 settlement of litigation pertaining to that block, could harm our reputation or have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition. Violations of such laws also could expose us and/or our employees to criminal sanctions, civil suits and other consequences, such as debarment and the revocation of licences.
- Environmental / Social - Risk 3Rising concerns about climate change and effects of the energy transition could continue to lead to a fall in demand and potentially lower prices for fossil fuels. Climate change could also have a physical impact on our assets and supply chains. This risk may also lead to additional legal and/or regulatory measures, resulting in project delays or cancellations, potential additional litigation, operational restrictions and additional compliance obligations.
Societal demand for urgent action has increased, especially since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report of 2018 on 1.5°C effectively made the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the rise in global average temperature this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius the default target. This increasing focus on climate change and drive for an energy transition have created a risk environment that is changing rapidly, resulting in a wide range of stakeholder actions at global, local and business levels. The potential impact and likelihood of the associated exposure for Shell could vary across different time horizons, depending on the specific components of the risk. We expect that a growing share of our GHG emissions will be subject to regulation, resulting in increased compliance costs and operational restrictions. Regulators may seek to limit certain oil and gas projects or make it more difficult to obtain required permits. Additionally, climate activists are challenging the grant of new and existing regulatory permits. We expect that these challenges are likely to continue and could delay or prohibit operations in certain cases. Achieving our target of becoming net zero on all emissions from our operations could result in additional costs. We also expect that actions by customers to reduce their emissions will continue to lower demand and potentially affect prices for fossil fuels, as will GHG emissions regulation through taxes, fees and/or other incentives. This could be a factor contributing to additional provisions for our assets and result in lower earnings, cancelled projects and potential impairment of certain assets. The physical effects of climate change such as, but not limited to, increases in temperature and sea levels and fluctuations in water levels could also adversely affect our operations and supply chains. Certain investors have decided to divest their investments in fossil fuel companies. If this were to continue, it could have a material adverse effect on the price of our securities and our ability to access capital markets. Stakeholder groups are also putting pressure on commercial and investment banks to stop financing fossil fuel companies. According to press reports, some financial institutions have started to limit their exposure to fossil fuel projects. Accordingly, our ability to use financing for these types of future projects may be adversely affected. This could also adversely affect our potential partners’ ability to finance their portion of costs, either through equity or debt. In some countries, governments, regulators, organisations and individuals have filed lawsuits seeking to hold fossil fuel companies liable for costs associated with climate change. While we believe these lawsuits to be without merit, losing could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition. For example, in May 2021, the District Court in The Hague, Netherlands, ruled that, by 2030, Shell must reduce, from its consolidated subsidiaries, its Scope 1 net emissions by 45% from its 2019 levels and use its best efforts to reduce its Scope 2 and Scope 3 net emissions by 45% from its 2019 levels. In 2019, our Scope 1 emissions from our consolidated subsidiaries were 86 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), rounded. We expect to see additional regulatory requirements to provide disclosures related to climate risks and their impact on business performance. In summary, rising climate change concerns and effects of the energy transition have led and could lead to a decrease in demand and potentially affect prices for fossil fuels. If we are unable to find economically viable, publicly acceptable solutions that reduce our GHG emissions and/or GHG intensity for new and existing projects and for the products we sell, we could experience financial penalties or extra costs, delayed or cancelled projects, potential impairments of our assets, additional provisions and/or reduced production and product sales. This could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
- Environmental / Social - Risk 4If we fail to stay in step with the pace and extent of society’s changing demands for energy as it transitions to a low-carbon future, we could fail in sustaining and developing our business.
The pace and extent of the energy transition could pose a risk to Shell if our own actions to decarbonise our operations and the energy we sell move at a different speed relative to society. If we are slower than society, customers may prefer a different supplier, which would reduce demand for our products and adversely affect our reputation besides materially affecting our earnings and financial results. If we move much faster than society, we risk investing in technologies, markets or low-carbon products that are unsuccessful because there is limited demand for them. This could also have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
Risk Highlights Q4, 2021
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 27
- Economy & Political Environment - Risk 1We are exposed to treasury and trading risks, including liquidity risk, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk and credit risk. We are affected by the global macroeconomic environment and the conditions of financial and commodity markets.
Our subsidiaries, joint arrangements and associates are subject to differing economic and financial market conditions around the world. Political or economic instability affects such markets. We use debt instruments, such as bonds and commercial paper, to raise significant amounts of capital. Should our access to debt markets become more difficult, the potential impact on our liquidity could have a material adverse effect on our operations. Our financing costs could also be affected by interest rate fluctuations or any credit rating deterioration. We are exposed to changes in currency values and to exchange controls as a result of our substantial international operations. Our reporting currency is the US dollar, although, to a material extent, we also hold assets and are exposed to liabilities in other currencies. While we undertake some foreign exchange hedging, we do not do so for all our activities. Even where hedging is in place, it may not function as expected. Commodity trading is an important component of our Upstream, Integrated Gas, Oil Products and Chemicals businesses. Processing, managing and monitoring many trading transactions across the world, some of them complex, exposes us to operational and market risks, including commodity price risks. We use derivative instruments such as futures and contracts for difference to hedge market risks. We do not hedge all our activities and even where hedging is in place, it may not function as expected. We are exposed to credit risk; our counterparties could fail or be unable to meet their payment and/or performance obligations under contractual arrangements. Although we do not have significant direct exposure to sovereign debt, it is possible that our partners and customers may have exposure which could impair their ability to meet their obligations. Our pension plans invest in government bonds, so they could be affected by a sovereign debt downgrade or other default. If any of the above risks materialise, they could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
- Economy & Political Environment - Risk 2Our business exposes us to risks of social instability, criminality, civil unrest, terrorism, piracy, cyber disruption and acts of war that could have a material adverse effect on our operations.
As seen in recent years, these risks can manifest themselves in the countries where we operate and elsewhere. These risks affect people and assets. Potential risks include: acts of terrorism; acts of criminality including maritime piracy; cyber espionage or disruptive cyber attacks; conflicts including war - such as Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine - malicious acts carried out by individuals within Shell, civil unrest and environmental and climate activism (including disruptions by non-governmental and political organisations). The above risks can threaten the safe operation of our facilities and the transport of our products. They can harm the well-being of our people, inflict loss of life and injuries, damage the environment and disrupt our operational activities. These risks could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
- Economy & Political Environment - Risk 3We are exposed to macroeconomic risks including fluctuating prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals.
The prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals are affected by supply and demand, both globally and regionally. Macroeconomic, geopolitical and technological uncertainties can also affect production costs and demand for our products. Government actions may also affect the prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals. This could happen, for example, if governments promote the sale of lower-carbon electric vehicles or even prohibit future sales of new diesel or gasoline vehicles, such as the phasing out in the UK that will come into force in 2030. Oil and gas prices can also move independently of each other. Factors that influence supply and demand include operational issues, natural disasters, weather, pandemics such as COVID-19, political instability, conflicts, such as the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, economic conditions, including inflation, and actions by major oil- and gas-producing countries. In a low oil and gas price environment, we would generate less revenue from our Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses, and parts of those businesses could become less profitable or incur losses. Low oil and gas prices have also resulted and could continue to result in the debooking of proved oil or gas reserves, if they become uneconomic in this type of price environment. Prolonged periods of low oil and gas prices, or rising costs, have resulted and could continue to result in projects being delayed or cancelled. Assets have been impaired in the past, and there could be impairments in the future. Low oil and gas prices have affected and could continue to affect our ability to maintain our long-term capital investment and shareholder distribution programmes. Prolonged periods of low oil and gas prices could adversely affect the financial, fiscal, legal, political and social stability of countries that rely significantly on oil and gas revenue. In a high oil and gas price environment, we could experience sharp increases in costs, and under some production-sharing contracts, our entitlement to proved reserves would be reduced. Higher prices could also reduce demand for our products, which could result in lower profitability, particularly in our Oil Products and Chemicals business. Higher prices can also lead to more capacity being built, potentially resulting in an oversupplied market which would negatively affect our Upstream, Integrated Gas, Oil Products and Chemicals businesses. Accordingly, price fluctuations could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
- Economy & Political Environment - Risk 4AddedRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected the safety and security of our people and operations in these and neighbouring countries. The sanctions and export controls and the evolving geopolitical situation have caused wide-ranging challenges to our operations which could continue in the medium to longer-term.
Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine poses wide-ranging challenges to our operations. The immediate impacts include the safety and security of our people and operations in these and neighbouring countries. The subsequent sanctions and export controls imposed by countries around the world could have a material impact on a number of our activities, including supply, trading and treasury activities. More sanctions and export controls are expected. Given the evolving situation, there are many other unknown factors and events that could materially impact our operations, which may be temporary or more permanent in nature. These risks and future events could impact our supply chain, commodity prices, credit, commodity trading, treasury and legal risks. The tensions also create heightened cyber-security threats to our information technology infrastructure. The geopolitical situation may influence our future investment and financial decisions. Any of these factors, individually or in aggregate, could have a material adverse effect on our earnings, cash flows and financial condition.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.