Oshkosh (OK3) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q2, 2026
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Jun 30, 2026, filed Jul 28, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
Risk Highlights Q2, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 25
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1We are subject to changes in contract estimates.
We account for substantially all long-term contracts in the Transport segment utilizing the cost-to-cost method of percentage-of-completion accounting. This accounting requires judgment relative to assessing risks, estimating revenues and costs and making assumptions regarding the timing of receipt of delivery orders from our government customers. Due to the size and nature of these contracts, the estimate of costs is complex and subject to many variables. We must make assumptions regarding expected increases in material costs, wages and employee benefits, engineering hours, productivity and availability of labor and allocated fixed costs. Changes to production costs, overhead rates, learning curves and/or supplier performance can also impact these estimates. For example, cumulative catch-up adjustments on contracts in the Transport segment negatively impacted operating income by approximately $35 million in 2025. Furthermore, under the revenue recognition accounting rules, we can only include units in our estimates of overall contract profitability after we have received a firm delivery order for those units. Because new orders have the potential to significantly change the overall profitability of cumulative orders received to date, the period in which we receive those orders will impact the estimated life-to-date contract profitability. Changes in underlying assumptions, circumstances or estimates could have a material adverse effect on our net sales, financial condition and/or profitability.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 2We may experience losses in excess of our recorded reserves for doubtful accounts and guarantees of indebtedness of others.
As of December 31, 2025, we had consolidated gross receivables of $1.5 billion. In addition, we were subject to obligations to guarantee customer indebtedness to third parties of $559 million, under which we estimate our maximum exposure to be $93 million. We evaluate the collectability of receivables and our guarantees of indebtedness of others based on a combination of factors and establish reserves based on our estimates of potential current and future losses. In circumstances where we believe it is probable that a specific customer will have difficulty meeting its financial obligations, a specific reserve is recorded to reduce the net recognized receivable to the amount we expect to collect, and/or we recognize a liability for a guarantee we expect to pay, taking into account any amounts that we would anticipate realizing if we are forced to repossess the equipment that supports the customer's financial obligations to us. We also establish additional reserves based upon our perception of the quality of the current receivables, the current financial position of our customers, past collections experience, and existing and expected future market conditions. Prolonged or more severe economic weakness may result in additional requirements for reserves. During periods of economic weakness, the collateral underlying our guarantees of indebtedness of customers or receivables can decline sharply, thereby increasing our exposure to losses. We also face a concentration of credit risk as the Access segment's ten largest debtors at December 31, 2025 represented approximately 27% of our consolidated gross receivables. Some of these customers are highly leveraged. We may incur losses in excess of our recorded reserves if the financial condition of our customers were to deteriorate or the full amount of any anticipated proceeds from the sale of the collateral supporting our customers' financial obligations is not realized. Our cash flows and overall liquidity may be materially adversely affected if any of the financial institutions that finance our customer receivables become unable or unwilling, due to unfavorable economic conditions, a weakening of our or their financial position or otherwise, to continue providing such credit.
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 3An impairment in the carrying value of goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets could negatively affect our operating results.
We have a substantial amount of goodwill and other indefinite-lived intangible assets on our balance sheet as a result of acquisitions we have completed. At December 31, 2025, approximately 78% of these intangibles were concentrated within JLG. We evaluate goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets for impairment annually, or more frequently if potential interim indicators exist that could result in impairment. Events and conditions that could result in impairment include a prolonged period of global economic weakness, a decline in economic conditions or a slow, weak economic recovery, a sustained decline in the price of our common stock, adverse changes in the regulatory environment, adverse changes in the market share of our products, adverse changes in interest rates, or other factors leading to reductions in the long-term net sales or profitability that we expect. Determination of the fair value of a reporting unit includes developing estimates which are highly subjective and incorporate calculations that are sensitive to minor changes in underlying assumptions. Management's assumptions change as more information becomes available. Changes in these events and conditions or other assumptions could result in an impairment charge in the future, which could have a significant adverse impact on our reported earnings.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.
