Marriott International (MAQ) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Marriott raised full-year 2026 guidance, now targeting global RevPAR growth of 3%–3.5% (with Q3 RevPAR +3.5%–4%), noting the World Cup added roughly 45 basis points to full-year RevPAR while Middle East disruption now trims about 100 basis points; gross fees are expected to rise ~11% to $6.03–$6.06 billion (Q3 gross fees +10%–11%), IMF +3%–5% for the year (Q3 IMF high single-digits to 10%), global credit card fees to rise in the high‑30% range with ~ $30 million incremental in 2026 from new U.S. deals (and a potential $100M–$125M run rate benefit by 2028 at a 26% royalty), residential branding fees +55%–65%, timeshare fees $110M–$115M, owned/leased & other revenue net $175M–$185M, adjusted EBITDA up 11%–12% to $5.97B–$6.03B (Q3 EBITDA +7%–9%), adjusted diluted EPS growth 16%–18%, adjusted effective tax rate 26%–26.5% (core cash tax in the low‑20% range), 2026 investment spending $1.25B–$1.35B (with contract acquisition ~40%–45% of spend and digital/tech ~25%), expected shareholder returns of over $4.5B, and net rooms growth likely toward the low end of the prior 4.5%–5% range (30‑month CAGR 5.2%).