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Ontrak (HY11) AI Stock Analysis

DE:HY11

Ontrak

(Munich:HY11)

Rating:―N/A
Action:N/A
Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors
Strategic PartnershipsStrategic partnerships with health insurers expand Ontrak's market reach and service offerings, potentially driving long-term revenue growth and enhancing competitive positioning in the healthcare technology sector.
Negative Factors
Declining RevenueDeclining revenue indicates potential market challenges and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder growth and profitability if not addressed through strategic adjustments.

Ontrak (HY11) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%DE:HY110.00%EWG+4.43%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
EUR 708
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
―
Price to Earnings (P/E)
0.0
Beta (1Y)
―
Revenue Growth
―
EPS Growth
―
Country
Germany
Employees
104
Sector
Healthcare
Sector Strength
51
Industry
Medical - Healthcare Information Services

Ontrak Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ontrak, Inc. is a virtualized healthcare company that leverages artificial intelligence and telehealth to deliver services, including in-person components, to health plans and other third-party payors across the United States. Its sophisticated, tech...

Ontrak Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025(Q1-2025)|% Change Since:0.00%|Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2024
Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with significant operational improvements and growth in membership contrasted by a notable decline in revenue and gross margin due to customer loss. While there are promising new business opportunities, the financial challenges remain a concern.

Positive Updates

Expansion of Outreach Pool
Ontrak's outreach pool has expanded significantly over the past year with new customer implementations, including Intermountain Health and a Northeast regional plan.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline
Q1 2025 revenue was $2 million, reflecting a 25% decrease compared to the same period last year due to the loss of a major customer.

Company Guidance

During the Ontrak Health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided optimistic guidance regarding its future prospects. Ontrak anticipates doubling its run rate revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by successful conversions of new customer opportunities, notably with a large Midwestern Medicaid plan. The company reported a significant increase in enrolled members, reaching 3,165 by the end of Q1, which nearly doubled year-over-year. The quarter's revenue was $2 million, reflecting a 25% decrease from the previous year, attributed to the loss of a customer at the end of 2024. However, the company expects Q2 2025 revenues to range from $2.2 million to $2.6 million, representing an 8% to 22% sequential increase. Ontrak's strategic investments in AI-driven technology and expanded solution offerings, including the Engage program, have significantly improved productivity and market reach, with the potential to address critical gaps in the behavioral health care landscape. The company also highlighted its strong pipeline of prospective contracts that could bring an additional $15 million in revenue, potentially doubling its current customer-based revenue.

Ontrak Risk Analysis

Ontrak disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ontrak reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.In evaluating us and our securities, we urge you to carefully consider the risks, uncertainties and other information in this report, as well as the risk factors disclosed in Item 1A to Part I of the 202Q3, 2024

Ontrak Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

DE:HY11 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
BTSGBTSG72Outperform$13.24B40.7916.75%―22.86%157.24%
HNGEHNGE69Neutral$9.22B84.8930.25%―49.76%―
OMDAOMDA67Neutral$1.15B275.851.84%―47.63%―
EVHEVH59Neutral$486.16M-0.96-99.16%―-4.50%-184.71%
TDOCTDOC52Neutral$1.55B-9.89-11.63%―-2.38%32.73%
Sector *51Neutral$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%DE:HY11EVHTDOCBTSGHNGEOMDADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
DE:HY11 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
DE:HY11Ontrak, Inc.1.880.000.00%
EVHEvolent Health Inc.4.30-2.42-36.01%
TDOCTeladoc Inc.8.510.374.55%
BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.66.8933.4099.73%
HNGEHinge Health, Inc. Class A114.3263.98127.10%
OMDAOmada Health, Inc.18.73-6.94-27.04%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.