Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (GBKB) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management kept its 2026 guidance broadly intact: baseline macro assumes full‑year GDP ~3% and year‑end CPI ~30% (they used 27% in H1 linker valuations and said 30% would have increased H1 net income by ~TRY2bn, NII by ~TRY3bn and NIM by ~20bps), funding costs are expected to converge toward policy rates by September with limited easing possible in Q4, and loan growth guidance for both TL and FX books is maintained. They expect consolidated cost‑of‑risk to finish within the guided 2.0–2.5% range but toward the upper end, and still forecast margin expansion this year albeit more modest than initially expected (75bps NIM improvement remains achievable but with downside risk; Q3 NIM likely flat vs Q2 with improvement in Q4; Q2 NII fell ~5% QoQ). Key figures supporting the guidance: H1 net income TRY64bn (+20% YoY) and ROE 28%, core banking revenues +43% YoY, total assets TRY5.2tn (loans 55% of assets), customer deposits TRY3.5tn (66% of assets), external debt $9.8bn ($4.5bn short‑term) with $6.1bn FX liquidity buffer, CET1 ≈12% and TRY149bn excess capital, fees +39% YoY (12% QoQ), OpEx +45% (lowest cost/income among peers), and a planned Romania disposal (expected mid‑Q4) that could add >€100m net income, ~80bps to capital and ~1.3–1.5pp to ROE and is factored into their planning.