GDS Holdings (G40) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

The company raised full‑year sales guidance to 1.0 GW after Q2 bookings of 260 MW and a record H1 total of 470 MW, and reported at-midyear binding commitments of over 2.0 GW plus 600 MW of reservations (customers have historically exercised reservations at ~100%), with developable uncommitted capacity of ~3.0 GW; backlog grew from 450 MW at the start of the year to 757 MW at midyear, and the backlog implies ~RMB 2.2 million of adjusted EBITDA per MW (booked‑but‑not‑billed adjusted EBITDA ~RMB 1.6 billion). Net move‑ins were 145 MW in H1 with a forecasted additional 90 MW in H2 (235 MW for 2026) and move‑ins expected to more than double in 2027, weighted to 2H27; unit CapEx for new builds is ~RMB 20 million/MW and CapEx paid guidance was raised from RMB 9 billion to RMB 10 billion (mostly in 2H), financed roughly 60% debt / 40% equity at project level. Management expects stabilized cash yields of 10–11% (implying ~5.5–6.0x project leverage), completed RMB 4.9 billion of onshore debt in 2Q, holds nearly RMB 20 billion cash, has net debt / LQA adjusted EBITDA of 4.7x, and noted H1 pro forma adjusted EBITDA grew 12.7% (implied full‑year pro forma growth at the midpoint ~6.5%); guidance excludes any further asset‑monetization proceeds currently under regulatory review.