Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (FLI) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management will give formal FY27 guidance at the AGM in November, but in the interim they flagged building Leisure momentum (record July TTV surpassing the 2019 peak and the best July profit since 2015), FY26 Leisure TTV of $12.6bn (up 7.4%) with underlying PBT of $139m yet Q4 profit fell from a normal ~$45m to ~$2m after ~ $250m of refunds and an estimated ~$60m FY26 Leisure profit hit from the Middle East war; group underlying EBITDA was up 4% YoY but underlying PBT was weighed by a $16m increase in net interest, HQ cost margin hit a record low 9.5%, the company repurchased ~$200m (~7% of shares) and announced a new up-to-$200m buyback, and expected effective tax is ~29–30%; Corporate delivered underlying PBT +28% to $240m with TTV +5% in constant currency (U.S. corporate TTV >US$2bn, +10% local), Corporate Traveller reached A$5bn TTV and CT grew 8% AUD (13% cc), TTV per travel consultant is up 34% since 2023 and CT TTV is 50% above pre‑COVID with 35% fewer consultants, while ~A$12m of productive‑ops costs have moved above the line and prior $34m loyalty investment may see up to half (~$17m) flow into FY27 results.