Octave Specialty Group (DE:FGPN)
FRANKFURT:FGPN
FGPN Stock Chart & Stats
€3.84
-€0.10(-0.87%)
At close: 4:00 PM EST
€3.84
-€0.10(-0.87%)
Day’s Range― - ―
52-Week Range€3.04 - €8.55
Previous CloseN/A
Volume0.00
Average Volume (3M)93.00
Market Cap
€223.26M
Enterprise Value€277.85M
Total Cash (Recent Filing)€322.92M
Total Debt (Recent Filing)€117.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta0.61
Next Earnings
Aug 10, 2026EPS Estimate
>-0.01Next Dividend Ex-DateN/A
Dividend YieldN/A
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.85
Shares Outstanding45,013,590
10 Day Avg. Volume75
30 Day Avg. Volume93
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio-7.02
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€11.66Price Target Upside203.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)€70.90M
Bulls Say, Bears Say
Bulls Say
Top-line Growth ReboundSustained revenue growth (TTM +16.5%) indicates the business is regaining scale and market traction. Durable top-line expansion supports fixed-cost absorption, funds investment in platform/AI, and provides a runway for margin recovery if underwriting and integration trends continue.
Insurance Distribution Margin ExpansionA large, durable margin improvement in the Insurance Distribution segment (adjusted EBITDA margin ~32%) shows the company can scale profitable distribution economics. Strong organic growth plus acquisition-led scale improves recurring earnings potential and strengthens the platform business model.
De-risked Balance Sheet And Expanded CapacityLow consolidated leverage (D/E ~0.16) and materially increased third-party capacity (> $2B) reduce refinancing and liquidity risk. Greater capital capacity supports underwriting growth, M&A and buy-ins without immediate equity dilution, strengthening strategic optionality over months.
Bears Say
Negative Cash Flow And Sustained LossesNegative operating and free cash flow (~-$49.8M TTM) and deeply negative EBIT/net margins mean the business is not yet self-financing. Persistent cash burns constrain reinvestment, increase reliance on external funding, and raise execution risk until profitable cash generation is sustained.
Everspan Volatility And Litigation ImpactMaterial one-off settlements and legal LAE that inflated reported loss ratios expose underwriting volatility and event risk in key programs. Such spikes complicate trend assessment, can strain reinsurance/partner relationships, and may raise capital and pricing requirements for affected lines.
De Novo MGA Cost Drag And SeasonalityA meaningful portion of the MGA fleet is early-stage and still loss-making, producing recurring de novo drag on consolidated profits. Ongoing start-up costs plus seasonal quarter-to-quarter variability increase forecast uncertainty and delay the realization of platform synergies.
Octave Specialty Group News
FGPN FAQ
What was Octave Specialty Group’s price range in the past 12 months?
Octave Specialty Group lowest stock price was €3.04 and its highest was €8.55 in the past 12 months.
What is Octave Specialty Group’s market cap?
Octave Specialty Group’s market cap is €223.26M.
When is Octave Specialty Group’s upcoming earnings report date?
Octave Specialty Group’s upcoming earnings report date is Aug 10, 2026 which is in 54 days.
How were Octave Specialty Group’s earnings last quarter?
Octave Specialty Group released its earnings results on May 06, 2026. The company reported €0.32 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of €0.029 by €0.29.
Is Octave Specialty Group overvalued?
According to Wall Street analysts Octave Specialty Group’s price is currently Undervalued.
Does Octave Specialty Group pay dividends?
Octave Specialty Group does not currently pay dividends.
What is Octave Specialty Group’s EPS estimate?
Octave Specialty Group’s EPS estimate is >-0.01.
How many shares outstanding does Octave Specialty Group have?
Octave Specialty Group has 45,013,590 shares outstanding.
What happened to Octave Specialty Group’s price movement after its last earnings report?
Octave Specialty Group reported an EPS of €0.32 in its last earnings report, beating expectations of €0.029. Following the earnings report the stock price went up 39.535%.
Which hedge fund is a major shareholder of Octave Specialty Group?
Currently, no hedge funds are holding shares in DE:FGPN
What is the TipRanks Smart Score and how is it calculated?
Smart Score combines eight research factors - such as analyst recommendations, hedge fund trends, and technical indicators - to measure a stock’s outlook. These signals are unified into a single score that reflects bullish or bearish momentum. See detailed methodology
Octave Specialty Group Stock Smart Score
Neutral
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Analyst Consensus
Moderate Buy
Average Price Target:
€11.66 (203.72% Upside)
€11.66 (203.72% Upside)
Blogger Sentiment
Bullish
DE:FGPN Sentiment 100%
Sector Average ―
Sector Average ―
Technicals
SMA
Negative
20 days / 200 days
Momentum
-32.14%
12-Months-Change
Fundamentals
Return on Equity
-25.46%
Trailing 12-Months
Asset Growth
-78.71%
Trailing 12-Months
Company Description
Octave Specialty Group
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. functions as a financial services holding company, organizing its operations into two distinct divisions. Its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment delivers specialized program insurance, primarily focusing on coverage for commercial and personal liability exposures. The second division, Insurance Distribution, offers a broad spectrum of services for distributing specialty property and casualty insurance, which includes roles such as managing general agents, underwriters, and insurance brokers, alongside other related distribution and underwriting ventures. Established in 1971, the company, with its corporate headquarters located in New York, New York, rebranded from its former name, Ambac Financial Group, Inc., to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025.
FGPN Company Deck
FGPN Earnings Call
Q1 2026
0:00 / 0:00
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial improvement story: very large revenue and adjusted-EBITDA gains in the Insurance Distribution segment, narrower GAAP losses, premium growth and loss-ratio improvement at Everspan on a pro forma basis, cost reductions, expanded capacity, and continued strategic progress on platform and AI initiatives. The quarter did include notable one-off headwinds — primarily a litigation settlement and related legal costs that materially inflated reported loss ratios, early-stage losses from newly launched MGAs, and ongoing non-recurring charges — but management quantified these items and highlighted pro forma metrics showing more normalized performance. On balance, the positive operational momentum and material improvements in non‑GAAP profitability and margins significantly outweigh the quarter’s lowlights.View all DE:FGPN earnings summariesFGPN Stock 12 Month Forecast
Average Price Target
€11.66
▲(203.72% Upside)
Technical Analysis
Options Prices
Currently, No data available
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