Expedia (E3X1) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q4, Expedia Group expects gross bookings of $27.9 billion to $28.4 billion, representing growth of approximately 3.3% to 5.2% year-over-year, with FX a headwind of approximately 0.5 a point; revenue is expected to be $3.69 billion to $3.75 billion, representing growth of approximately 4% to 5.7% year-over-year with minimal FX impact at current rates; and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $830 million to $880 million, implying a margin of 22.5% to 23.5%. Underlying the bookings outlook, elevated ATPs in Air are expected to persist and be relatively steady from Q3 to Q4, ADR growth is expected to continue its moderation from 3% on an FX neutral basis in Q3, and room-night growth is expected to be positive in Q4 but more modest, with the decel roughly in line with bookings on an FX neutral basis. For the full year, the company now expects gross bookings of $131.4 billion to $131.9 billion, representing growth of approximately 10%, revenue of $16.37 billion to $16.43 billion, representing growth of approximately 11% to 12%, foreign exchange tailwinds of 1 point for gross bookings and 2 points for revenue, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 180 basis points to 200 basis points versus last year; it expects to exceed the top end of the full year guidance ranges provided at the beginning of the year for each of bookings, revenue, and EBITDA margin expansion.