Equinor ASA (DNQA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was predominantly positive, supported by nearly doubled adjusted operating income, strong cash flow, production growth, increased production guidance, a higher cash flow outlook, a record Mongstad result, improved balance sheet metrics and continued project and exploration progress. The main challenges were increased safety incidents, cost reductions running behind plan, impairments, tax payment timing, shipping derivative impacts, an Empire Wind schedule delay, expected higher Johan Sverdrup decline in 2027 and vulnerability in the European gas market. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

For 2026, Equinor increased its production guiding from 3% to around 4% growth, expects cash flow from operations of around $29 billion based on current forward prices, and continues to expect organic CapEx of around $13 billion; it expects fourth-quarter tax payments totaling $9.3 billion, tax payments in the first half of 2027 to be higher than the second half of 2026, and a year-end net debt ratio around zero at current forward prices, or somewhat above 10% when adjusted for the 6 month tax lag in Norway. Going forward, it expects to increase the quarterly cash dividend by more than 5% on an annual basis and has introduced a share-buyback framework of $2 billion to $4 billion per year when oil prices are between $60 and $80 and European gas prices are between $7 and $11 per MBTU, with each of 4 tranches from 500 million to $1 billion; above those ranges, it has the opportunity to do more, but you should not expect a linear relationship. Bay Du Nord remains on track for a final investment decision early next year, Empire Wind is expected to have first power during the first half of 2027 with $2 billion in investment tax credits in 2027 and the remaining in 2028, and Rosebank is on schedule to start production next year, first half of next year.