Ampol Limited (CLZ) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

The call’s guidance framed a view that, while H1 FY26 was exceptional (RCOP EBITDA ~A$1.6bn, RCOP EBIT ~A$1.39bn, RCOP NPAT ~A$857–860m and statutory NPAT ~A$1.36–1.4bn on total sales of 12.3bn litres, +1.5%), management expects markets to normalize over time but sees persistent tailwinds and multiple near‑term catalysts: Lytton refiner margin averaged US$28.26/bl (July realized US$27.11/bl with production 524m L), FCCU turnaround will run the refinery at ~70% capacity with the low‑sulfur fuels project due to start up toward year‑end, and the FSSP cap/collar has been lifted from $0.046–$0.064/L to $0.082–$0.10/L (marker ~A$15.90/bl) improving refining stability. Balance‑sheet and capital guidance included net borrowings ~A$3.52bn (net debt/EBITDA ~1.8x), all‑cash EG consideration ~A$1.165bn (cash acquired ~A$29m, A$315m scrip cashed out, ~A$1.1bn added to net debt), an interim dividend A$1.85/share (A$441m), tax cash payment ~A$0.5bn due mid‑2027, A$148m of EFA‑held inventory (no price risk), a return to mid‑cycle leverage of 2–2.5x, and CapEx stepping back toward ~A$450m p.a.; modelling sensitivities noted every US$1/bl of refining margin equates to ~A$60m p.a. of EBITDA. Operational and growth targets reiterated included 12.3bn L group volumes, Convenience Retail volumes +2.4% (shop gross margin 40.1%, avg basket +2.6%), U‑GO at 47 sites (vol growth 64%) targeting ~185 conversions in ~2 years with EG synergies of A$65–80m p.a. within two years, productivity savings A$50m across 2026–27, EV rollout of 79 public bays (up from 49) with breakeven on energy sold targeted by end‑2028 and Energy Solutions at ~A$(15)m EBIT loss in the half.