Churchill Downs (CHR) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management expects to announce executed transactions for 9 regional gaming properties by year-end and expects bank leverage to remain around 3.8x to 3.9x through year-end and decline below 3.0x following completion of the regional gaming asset sales; 2026 maintenance capital is expected to be $90 million to $100 million, 2026 project capital $160 million to $180 million, and 2027 project capital between $200 million and $250 million. Derby 153 ticket sales are up about 25% so far compared to last year, with about 40% of the ticket inventory allocated for sale sold; Victory Run is on schedule and on budget for Derby 2028, with an interim upgraded seating experience for Derby 2027. The Thoroughbred Championship Series begins in 2027 with a 6-race Derby Division and 4-race Oaks Division, an incremental $5 million in prize money, a $1 million prize pool for the Oaks Division and up to an additional $1 million bonus; craps ETGs are planned around the end of the year and blackjack ETGs in 2027. Rockingham Grand Casino is expected to open on time and on budget in mid-2027 with around 800 to 850 HRMs and slots, 32 table games and a large event center; the Collinsville venue is expected to be a 150-unit HRM venue approximately 45 to 60 minutes from Winston-Salem and Greensboro, while 2 referendums could enable 2 facilities, each with 150 machines, representing 415 incremental HRMs against approximately 4,700 currently deployed and a right to deploy 5,000 HRMs across 10 sites. The company repurchased more than $48 million of shares during the third quarter and an additional $76 million from October 1 through October 27, authorized a new $750 million share repurchase program, and approved a 7% dividend increase payable on January 5, 2027.