Cheesecake Factory (CF2) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive overall. Record revenue, 15.2% comparable sales growth, 9.5% traffic growth, substantial EBITDA growth, margin expansion, strong Flower Child performance, successful development activity and increased rewards engagement significantly outweighed the North Italia sales and margin challenges, higher costs, measured fiscal 2027 assumptions and expected dilution.

For Q4 2026, the company anticipates total revenues between $1.04 billion and $1.05 billion, effective commodity inflation of low single digits, net total labor inflation of low to mid-single digits, G&A of approximately $68 million, depreciation of $30 million, preopening expenses of $13 million to support 13 openings, adjusted net income margin of about 5.8% at the midpoint of the sales range provided, a tax rate of approximately 14% to 15%, and diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52.5 million; it remains on track to open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026 and anticipates approximately $210 million in cash CapEx. For fiscal 2027, it expects to open as many as 27 new restaurants, with roughly 3/4 of those openings planned for the second half of the year, generate total revenue of approximately $4.425 billion, incur total inflation across its commodity basket, labor and other operating expenses in the low- to mid-single-digit range, achieve modest leverage from G&A, depreciation and pre-opening expenses of approximately 10 to 20 basis points, and deliver full year net income margin of 6.0% to 6.1%, assuming a tax rate of approximately 12%, diluted weighted average shares outstanding of approximately 52 million, and approximately $220 million in cash CapEx, including roughly as many as 5 Cheesecake Factories, 4 to 5 North Italias, 11 to 13 Flower Childs and 6 to 7 FRC restaurants; 3% as sort of a run rate is good to use for next year, and on a normalized trajectory, the company would be talking about a 3% or plus comp.