Cf Industries Holdings (C4F) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
DE:C4F Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- EUR 2.63
- Consensus EPS
- EUR 2.67
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -EUR 0.04
- One Year Ago EPS
- EUR 2.02
DE:C4F Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- EUR 1.65B
- Expected Revenue
- EUR 1.57B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 83.38M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +12.12%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 11/04/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Cf Industries Holdings's next earnings date is estimated for February 17, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. CF Industries reported approximately $3 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months, 97% ammonia capacity utilization, record safety performance, strong demand and order books, substantial shareholder returns, and progress on projects expected to increase mid-cycle EBITDA to $3.3 billion and nitrogen per share by 15% by 2030. The principal challenges were geopolitical supply disruptions, European production curtailments, higher logistics and rebuild-related costs, Brazilian credit constraints, and crop-price and weather uncertainty, but management consistently described the resulting global nitrogen supply-demand environment as constructive.
Management expects fall ammonia volumes to be amongst our highest in the last 10 years, India imports to exceed 10 million metric tons this year, and the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive into 2027, with a structurally tighter global nitrogen environment through the end of the decade. Current growth projects are expected to add $400 million to the mid-cycle EBITDA estimate by 2030, bringing it to $3.3 billion; 2026 consolidated capital expenditure remains approximately $1.3 billion, with CF Industries' share at approximately $950 million, while Blue Point One’s projected total cost remains $3.7 billion, ammonia production is expected to commence in 2029, and Blue Point common facilities remain at $550 million. Fall ammonia demand could support 95 million-96 million acres of corn planting in 2027, with acreage potentially elevated; nitrogen pricing is expected to be on a positive trajectory in at least the first half of 2027; Yazoo is expected to begin ramping in the first half of 2027, with AN production in the second half of the year; Middle Eastern urea exports could take four to six months to return to a “normal volume”; India imports are expected in the range of six million-nine million tons into 2027; and ammonia demand from phosphate producers is expected to increase in 2027, probably more positive going into 2028.
- Strong Nine-Month EarningsCF Industries generated approximately $3 billion of adjusted EBITDA during the first nine months of 2026. Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $1.8 billion, or $11.60 per diluted share.
- Solid Third-Quarter ResultsThird-quarter net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $436 million, or $2.87 per diluted share. EBITDA was $822 million and adjusted EBITDA was $833 million.
- Excellent Safety PerformanceThe trailing 12-month incident rate was 0.1 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, described as well below industry averages and the lowest recordable incident rate the company has achieved.
- High Ammonia Capacity UtilizationCF Industries operated its available ammonia capacity at 97% utilization since the beginning of the year, supporting reliable production and high asset utilization.
- Strong Free Cash Flow ConversionTrailing-12-month net cash from operations was approximately $3.1 billion and free cash flow was approximately $2 billion. EBITDA-to-free-cash-flow conversion has averaged approximately 60% over the last five years, which management described as the highest rate in the materials sector and well above other fertilizer companies.
- Mid-Cycle EBITDA ExpansionCF Industries' low-cost North American asset base supports a current $2.9 billion mid-cycle EBITDA estimate. Blue Point One and the CCS projects are expected to add $400 million to that estimate by 2030, bringing mid-cycle EBITDA to $3.3 billion.
- Progress on Growth and Carbon ProjectsBlue Point One began site construction in August, Donaldsonville CCS is operating well, and the Yazoo City CCS project is progressing toward startup in 2028. The company has also begun a FEED study for the Courtright diesel exhaust fluid project.
- Blue Point One Remains on PlanConstruction of Blue Point One is moving forward in line with expectations. The projected total cost remains $3.7 billion, ammonia production is expected to commence in 2029, and the cost of Blue Point common facilities remains at the initial estimate of $550 million.
- Blue Point Construction MilestonesThe company has received required permits, begun significant civil work, ordered long-lead items, and expects to begin module work early next year. Management said some critical equipment was ordered approximately two years ahead of the start of construction.
- Substantial Capital ReturnsCF Industries returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over the last 12 months through share repurchases and dividends. It repurchased approximately 6% of outstanding shares over that period and 22% over the last three years. During the third quarter, it repurchased three million shares for approximately $367 million.
- Expected Nitrogen Per-Share GrowthCurrent growth projects, together with the existing share repurchase authorization, are expected to increase nitrogen per share by 15% by 2030.
- Constructive Global Nitrogen MarketManagement said the global nitrogen market remained constructive in the third quarter, with demand strengthening as the quarter progressed while supply remained constrained. The company expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive into 2027 and structurally tighter through the end of the decade.
- Strong North American DemandParticipation in the fall ammonia program has been very strong, and management expects fall ammonia volumes to be among the highest in the last 10 years, weather permitting. The UAN fill program helped the company ship nearly two million tons in the third quarter, its largest quarterly UAN volume this decade.
- Robust Deferred and Global DemandBuying activity accelerated in North America, South America, and Europe as deferred demand returned to the market. India maintained a steady pace of urea tenders, with imports expected to exceed 10 million metric tons this year, while improved crop values supported Brazilian farmer economics and demand.
- Low Global Nitrogen InventoriesManagement reported low nitrogen inventories across North America, South America, Europe, and Southeast Asia and said substantial purchasing remains ahead.
- Positive Nitrogen Pricing OutlookNitrogen prices were approximately 10% higher than the prior year, with Q4 NOLA pricing cited at $430 per short ton versus the high $380s and approximately $360-$380 range last year. Management expects a positive trajectory for nitrogen pricing at least through the first half of 2027.
- Strong UAN Order Book and Spring OutlookThe company took more than two million tons of summer-fill orders, shipped against those orders, and has continued building its book into Q1. Management said the company is seeing very positive spring demand and has retained more UAN for North American farmers.
- Potentially Supportive 2027 Corn AcreageManagement expects 2027 corn acreage to be approximately 95 million-96 million acres, with the possibility of higher acreage depending on pricing. The fall ammonia program was described as having positive implications for 2027 corn planting.
- Yazoo City Rebuild ProgressThe company expects to begin restarting components of the Yazoo City complex toward the end of the first half of 2027, potentially starting with the ammonia plant. It expects to move into AN production in the second half of 2027 and is also adding logistics and distribution flexibility, including potential DEF and ammonia load-out capabilities.
- Low-Carbon Product MomentumCF Industries is building a low-carbon product book, with significant ammonia volumes moving at an average price of a little over $20 per ton. The company is working through certifications for UAN, including benefits from CO2 sequestration and nitric acid abatement projects, and expects the book to expand with CBAM and certification details developing next year.
- Distribution Network AdvantageThe company ships ammonia through a cost-optimized network using pipeline, barge, truck, and rail, while maintaining high production utilization. Management said its distribution system allows production to remain running at high utilization and helps move product to farmers when needed.
- Supportive Long-Term Supply FundamentalsManagement said nitrogen capacity under construction is insufficient to meet global demand growth and expected permanent shutdowns through 2030. It also said future capacity is taking longer and requiring more capital to bring online, supporting a structurally tighter market.
- Limited Impact from Small U.S. ProjectsManagement characterized newly announced small U.S. ammonia projects as generally sized at approximately 50,000-150,000 tons, compared with Blue Point One's minimum 1.5 million tons, and said these projects do not materially change the broader global supply-demand outlook.
- Expected Recovery in Phosphate-Related Ammonia DemandManagement expects ammonia demand from phosphate producers to increase in 2027, driven by an expected improvement in sulfur availability and overall phosphate demand, with a more positive outlook going into 2028.
- India Import Demand Remains MaterialIndia is approaching 40 million tons of total urea consumption, with production of around 30 million tons and imports of around 10 million tons. Management expects the 2027 import range to be approximately six million-nine million tons, with imports toward the high side if gas prices remain expensive.
DE:C4F Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 3.17- | 2.42 | ― | ― |
| Nov 04, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 2.672.63 | 2.02 | 29.82% (+0.60) | |
| Aug 05, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 5.004.22 | 2.1 | 100.89% (+2.12) | |
| May 06, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 2.343.64 | 1.75 | 107.55% (+1.89) | |
| Feb 18, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 2.152.42 | 1.68 | 43.72% (+0.74) | |
| Nov 05, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 1.922.02 | 1.18 | 70.95% (+0.84) | |
| Aug 06, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 2.222.10 | 2.04 | 2.78% (+0.06) | |
| May 07, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 1.311.75 | 0.92 | 91.65% (+0.84) | |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 1.371.68 | 1.33 | 26.57% (+0.35) | |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 1.031.18 | 1.01 | 16.84% (+0.17) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
