Flywire (9E2) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For full year 2026, Flywire expects FX-neutral revenue growth in the range of 25% to 27%, midpoint of 26% FX neutral, adjusted gross profit growth to be in the low 20s at the spot rate, adjusted EBITDA margin to expand 300 to 360 basis points year-over-year to 23.3% at the midpoint of our guide, and 70% to 75% free cash flow conversion, with stock-based compensation as a percent of revenue continuing its downward trajectory towards 10% and net dilution remaining tightly controlled under 2%; for Q4 2026, FX-neutral revenue growth is expected in the range of 14% to 20%, adjusted EBITDA margin year-over-year expansion is expected to be in the 330 to 530 basis points range, low teens gross profit growth is implied, payment processing ramp contribution is declining from 3 points in Q3 to just 1 point in Q4, and quarterly revenue growth could be impacted by approximately 1 point by payment deadlines moving between Q4 and Q1; looking toward 2027, Flywire is on track to achieve 25% adjusted EBITDA margin, expects a 100 to 200 bps gross margin decline, OpEx growth in the low single-digit to mid-single-digit growth next year, and mid-teens revenue growth into next year adjusted for payment ramp and lapping effects, with visas being down again next year across the Big 4, while remaining on a multiyear path to $1 billion in annual organic revenue and 30% adjusted EBITDA margins.