Central Asia Metals (9C3) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance from the call reiterated that the group is on track to meet full‑year 2026 production and spend targets: Kounrad copper cathode 12,000–13,000 t and Sasa zinc 18,000–20,000 t / lead 26,000–28,000 t, with group sustaining CapEx guidance of $14.5–17.5m (H1 CapEx $9.5m: Sasa $8.0m, Kounrad $1.4m) and Kazakhstan exploration of $3.0–3.5m (H1 exploration $1.6m). Financially the board set an 8p interim dividend (40% of adjusted free cash flow and midpoint of the 30–50% policy) underpinned by H1 adjusted free cash flow of $46.8m (up 189% YoY), revenue $145.5m, EBITDA $75.5m (52% margin) and $97.2m cash on hand; working capital and tax timing (cash tax paid $19.8m including ≈$10m withholding tax) were flagged as drivers of near‑term cash movements. Operational and market headwinds/benefits to monitor include 50% of Sasa zinc hedged at $3,011 (≈$1.4m unrealised hedge loss recorded), treatment charges of $2.7m (down $2.2m YoY), high silver prices (spikes to ~$115/oz), electricity tariff rises at Kounrad (tariff up to ~$0.07/kWh; solar supplied 18% of H1 power) and ongoing inventory reductions (inventory down ~$3m). Management also guided that Chibougamau (Cygnus) completion is targeted for October with a PEA/PEA‑related study expected next year, and that any development CapEx for Chibougamau would be modest in year one, with larger development spend likely to ramp into H2 2027/2028.