Upstart Holdings (855) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
DE:855 Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- EUR 0.29
- Consensus EPS
- EUR 0.18
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 0.11
- One Year Ago EPS
- EUR 0.46
DE:855 Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- EUR 329.22M
- Expected Revenue
- EUR 322.25M
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 6.97M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +33.71%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 11/03/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Upstart Holdings's next earnings date is estimated for February 16, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly optimistic about Upstart's execution, technology-driven growth, secured-product profitability, customer expansion, and capital efficiency. Q3 delivered record contribution profit, strong originations and fee revenue growth, positive secured margins ahead of schedule, and improved expense and equity efficiency. However, worsening consumer credit conditions, higher interest rates, lower balance-sheet income, and reduced total revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance were significant negatives. The highlights materially outweighed the lowlights, with management maintaining a positive long-term outlook despite near-term macro pressure.
For the full year, the original guidance was total revenue of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, assuming UMI went no higher than 1.5 and interest rates were flat or down; updated guidance is approximately revenue from fees of $1.32 billion, total revenue of $1.35 billion, contribution profit of $750 million, up roughly 41% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $260 million, representing a 19% margin, assuming UMI remains at or below 1.55 through year-end and no material change in 2-year Treasury yields from current levels. Secured contribution margin is expected to remain consistently positive between breakeven and 25% quarter-to-quarter, fixed expenses are expected to be about flat from Q3 to Q4, operating leverage is expected to improve in 2027 and 2028, and the 2028 guide includes a 25% margin target; Upstart Bank is on track to open in early 2027, subject to the remaining regulatory approvals.
- Record Contribution Profit and Strong Q3 ExecutionQ3 contribution profit reached a record $218 million, up 48% year-over-year and surpassing the record set in the prior quarter. Management described the results as strong by nearly any measure and exceptional given the macroeconomic backdrop.
- Originations Grew Across Unsecured and Secured ProductsTotal originations were $4.1 billion, up 44% year-over-year. Unsecured originations were $3.5 billion, up 33%, including approximately $2.45 billion from Core. Secured originations were $587 million, up 194%, with auto volume roughly tripling and Home volume roughly doubling versus Q3 2025.
- Record Fee Revenue and Higher Take RateTotal revenue was approximately $371 million, up 34% year-over-year, while revenue from fees reached a record $364 million, up 41%. The take rate increased to 8.8% from 8.2% in Q2, an improvement of about 60 basis points, with both unsecured and secured products contributing.
- Secured Products Reached Positive Contribution Margin Ahead of ScheduleSecured contribution margin was positive 17%, compared with negative 35% in Q2 and roughly 200 percentage points better than Q3 2025. The sequential improvement was more than 50 percentage points, allowing the company to reach contribution-margin positivity one quarter ahead of its year-end target. Improvements included better third-party loan-sale terms, increased automation, monetization initiatives, and a 31% increase in Auto Retail end-to-end conversion.
- Core Underwriting Model Continued to ImproveUpstart added more than 140 features to its core underwriting model in Q3, including proprietary signals related to consumer engagement. The company said its model is now 2.77 times as accurate as a traditional credit-scoring benchmark, with 87.27% of the inaccuracy gap still ahead of it according to management's stated measure.
- Expanded Customer Reach and Repeat BorrowingMore than 1 million people applied for an Upstart loan for the first time in Q3, bringing the cumulative number of unique Americans who have applied for an Upstart loan to more than 25 million. More than 555,000 unique Americans took out loans during the quarter, a new record, including more than 250,000 returning customers. Management also said customer acquisition costs declined.
- Improved Profitability and Expense DisciplineGAAP net income was approximately $37 million, up 15% year-over-year, with a 10% margin. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $89 million, up 26%, with a 24% margin. GAAP operating expenses declined 4% sequentially to approximately $335 million; variable expenses declined 6%, borrower acquisition costs declined 11% to $91 million, and fixed expenses declined 3% sequentially to approximately $188 million.
- Improved Capital EfficiencyLoans held directly on Upstart's balance sheet declined to 4.8% of total loans outstanding, while more than 95% of Upstart-powered loans outstanding were third-party funded. Over the past year, platform loans outstanding grew 38% while equity used increased only 7%. Total equity capital used represented 9% of the platform loan balance in Q3, down from 11.6% a year earlier.
- Strong Capital-Partner Returns and Funding BaseThe average return of the last 12 quarterly loan vintages exceeded U.S. Treasuries by approximately 660 basis points. Committed capital partnerships funded about 68% of the platform in Q3, a level management characterized as appropriate for supporting funding resilience through market cycles.
- Upstart Bank Launch Preparation ProgressedUpstart remains on track to open Upstart Bank in early 2027, subject to remaining regulatory approvals. The bank is expected to be capitalized with approximately $404.1 million in cash and servicing assets, supported by deposit agreements with two major partners. Using the actual Q3 balance sheet illustratively, the transactions would result in pro forma consolidated unrestricted cash of over $1 billion, with the bank's Tier 1 leverage and total risk-based capital ratios well above required minimums.
- Expected Benefits From Upstart BankManagement expects the bank to expand the company's total addressable market, retain economics currently paid to originating bank partners, modestly improve take rates and net interest income, lower the cost of capital through deposit funding, and reduce operational complexity. The bank is expected to begin originating substantially all platform loan volume shortly after launch, while the strategy of selling the vast majority of loans to third-party capital is expected to remain unchanged.
- Full-Year Fee Revenue and Contribution Profit Outlook IncreasedDespite the macroeconomic headwinds, management expects full-year fee revenue and contribution profit to modestly exceed the original outlook. The updated outlook calls for approximately $1.32 billion of fee revenue and $750 million of contribution profit, with contribution profit up roughly 41% year-over-year.
- Progress on AI Compute Efficiency and Future Operating LeverageManagement said inference and training costs are meaningful for its AI models and had appeared in the 2026 financials, but the company made substantial progress optimizing both during the year. These improvements were cited as one contributor to expected better operating leverage in 2027 and 2028. Management continues to invest in secured products, AI technology, marketing, and the bank.
- Long-Term Growth Strategy Does Not Depend on a Macro TailwindManagement said its multiyear forecasts do not depend on interest rates or the Upstart Macro Index declining. The company expects technology and marketing advances to continue generating alpha even if macro conditions remain flat at elevated levels, and it expects secured products to return their focus to growth in 2027 while maintaining contribution margins between breakeven and 25% quarter-to-quarter.
DE:855 Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 0.00- | 0.41 | ― | ― |
| Nov 03, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 0.180.29 | 0.46 | -36.54% (-0.17) | |
| Aug 04, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 0.160.14 | 0.32 | -55.56% (-0.18) | |
| May 05, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 0.37-0.06 | 0.29 | -121.21% (-0.36) | |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.410.41 | 0.23 | 75.38% (+0.17) | |
| Nov 04, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 0.380.46 | -0.05 | 966.67% (+0.52) | |
| Aug 05, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 0.230.32 | -0.15 | 311.76% (+0.47) | |
| May 06, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 0.150.29 | -0.28 | 206.45% (+0.57) | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | -0.040.23 | -0.1 | 336.36% (+0.33) | |
| Nov 07, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | -0.13-0.05 | -0.04 | -20.00% (-0.01) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
