Skydance Corporation (63G) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management reiterated its medium-term outlook of mid-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-20% range and at least $10 billion of free cash flow in 2030, with net leverage below 3x by the end of 2029. It expects at least $6 billion of run rate synergy savings within 3 years, including 30% by the end of 2027 and 70% by the end of '28; cash cost to achieve is $4 billion, with 60% to 70% incurred between 2027 and 2028 and $1.5 billion to $2 billion hitting in 2027. Paramount on a stand-alone basis remains on track for 2026 guidance, including the high end of the profitability range at $3.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA. D2C revenue grew 15% in Q3 on a pro forma basis, Q4 is expected to include a $200 million headwind to adjusted EBITDA, and 2027 is expected to bring continued strong growth in D2C revenue, growth in Studios revenue, increased total company adjusted EBITDA year-on-year and cash flow breakeven or better, including cost to achieve synergies. The company plans a Paramount+ and HBO Max bundle in early 2027 and an ambitious target to converge them in roughly a year.