Ramaco Resources (5R02) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Ramaco increased cash cost guidance from $96 to $99 per ton to $101 to $103 per ton, lowered production guidance by 200,000 tons at the midpoint and sales guidance by 100,000 tons at the midpoint, and increased full year capital expenditure guidance by roughly $5 million at the midpoint; the revised CapEx midpoint reflects roughly $20 million in Q4 versus an average of $27 million in the first 3 quarters. For 2027, low-vol production is anticipated to be up by almost 1 million tons on an annualized basis, Brook Mine CapEx is expected to be no more than $25 million, excess inventory of roughly 600,000 tons could provide a roughly $75 million working capital tailwind, and inventory should be normalized before mid-year 2027. The company has secured 1.7 million tons of North American business at an average price of approximately $139 per ton, representing more than $65 million of adjusted EBITDA, plus 1.1 million tons of carryover export commitments; domestic volume could reach just short of 2 million tons, somewhere in that range. New production is expected to add about 600,000 tons of annualized low-vol, while Berwind is expected to produce almost 1.5 million tons annually and Maben roughly 1.7 million tons annually; the medium-term portfolio could be almost 6 million tons of total production, with optionality to add 1.5 million tons of high-vol A and ultimately reach roughly 8 million tons of production capacity. The critical mineral building structure is expected to be completed in early '27, the prefeasibility study is expected to begin in the first quarter of '27 and be completed later next year, and pilot plant completion is anticipated in the second half of 2027.