Bicycle Therapeutics (50BA) Risk Analysis

Undesirable or clinically unmanageable side effects could occur and cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive label or the delay or denial of marketing approval by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. Results of our trials could reveal a high and unacceptable severity and prevalence of side effects or unexpected characteristics. If unacceptable side effect profiles arise, or side effects beyond those identified to date develop or worsen, as we continue development of our current or future product candidates, we, the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities, the Institutional Review Boards, or IRBs, or independent ethics committees at the institutions in which our studies are conducted, or Safety Review Committees could suspend or terminate our clinical trials or the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities could order us to cease clinical trials or deny approval of our product candidates for any or all targeted indications. Treatment-related side effects could also affect patient recruitment or the ability of enrolled subjects to complete the trial, cause delays in ongoing clinical trials, or result in potential product liability claims. In addition, these side effects may not be appropriately recognized or managed by the treating medical staff. We may be required to train medical personnel using our product candidates to understand the side effect profiles for our clinical trials and upon any commercialization of any of our product candidates. Inadequate training in recognizing or managing the potential side effects of our product candidates could result in patient injury or death. Any of these occurrences may prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of the affected product candidate and may harm our business, financial condition and prospects significantly. Three of our product candidates are currently undergoing safety testing in the form of Phase I/II or Phase II clinical trials. None of our products have completed this testing to date. While our current and future product candidates will undergo safety testing to the extent possible and, where applicable, under such conditions discussed with regulatory authorities, not all adverse effects of drugs can be predicted or anticipated. Unforeseen side effects could arise either during clinical development or, if such side effects are rarer, after our products have been approved by regulatory authorities and the approved product has been marketed, resulting in the exposure of additional patients. So far, we have not demonstrated, and we cannot predict if ongoing or future clinical trials will demonstrate, that nuzefatide pevedotin, zelenectide pevedotin, or any other of our product candidates are safe in humans. Moreover, clinical trials of our product candidates are conducted in carefully defined sets of patients who have agreed to enter into clinical trials. Consequently, it is possible that our clinical trials may indicate an apparent positive effect of a product candidate that is greater than the actual positive effect, if any, or alternatively fail to identify undesirable side effects. If, following approval of a product candidate, we, or others, discover that the product is less effective than previously believed or causes undesirable side effects that were not previously identified, any of the following consequences could occur: - regulatory authorities may withdraw their approval of the product or seize the product;- we, or any collaborators, may need to recall the product, or be required to change the way the product is administered or conduct additional clinical trials;- additional restrictions may be imposed on the marketing of, or the manufacturing processes for, the particular product;- we may be subject to fines, injunctions or the imposition of civil or criminal penalties;- regulatory authorities may require the addition of labeling statements, such as a boxed warning or a contraindication;- we, or any collaborators, may be required to create a medication guide outlining the risks of the previously unidentified side effects for distribution to patients;- we, or any collaborators, could be sued and held liable for harm caused to patients;- the product may become less competitive; and - our reputation may suffer. If any of our current or future product candidates fail to demonstrate safety and efficacy in clinical trials or do not gain marketing approval, we will not be able to generate revenue and our business will be harmed. Any of these events could harm our business and operations, and could negatively impact the price of our ADSs.

If the FDA determines that a product candidate offers a treatment for a serious condition and, if approved, the product would provide a significant improvement in safety or effectiveness, the FDA may designate the product candidate for priority review. A priority review designation means that the goal for the FDA to review an application is six months, rather than the standard review period of ten months. We may request priority review for our product candidates. The FDA has broad discretion with respect to whether or not to grant priority review status to a product candidate, so even if we believe a particular product candidate is eligible for such designation or status, in particular if such product candidate has received a Breakthrough Therapy Designation, the FDA may decide not to grant it. Moreover, a priority review designation does not result in expedited development and does not necessarily result in expedited regulatory review or approval process or necessarily confer any advantage with respect to approval compared to conventional FDA procedures. Receiving priority review from the FDA does not guarantee approval within the six-month review cycle or at all.

The outcome of preclinical studies and early clinical trials may not be predictive of the success of later clinical trials, and preliminary or interim results of clinical trials do not necessarily predict success in the results of completed clinical trials. Many companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries have suffered significant setbacks in late-stage clinical trials after achieving positive results in earlier development, and we could face similar setbacks. For example, the interim results of our company-sponsored Phase I/II clinical trials of nuzefatide pevedotin and zelenectide pevedotin, including specific patient responses we have observed and disclosed, may not be replicated in the completed data sets or in future trials at global clinical trial sites in a later stage clinical trial conducted by us or our collaborators. The design of a clinical trial can determine whether its results will support approval of a product and flaws in the design of a clinical trial may not become apparent until the clinical trial is well advanced. We have limited experience in designing late-stage clinical trials and may be unable to design and execute a clinical trial to support marketing approval. Preclinical and clinical data are often susceptible to varying interpretations and analyses. Many companies that believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in preclinical studies and clinical trials have nonetheless failed to obtain marketing approval for the product candidates. Even if we, or any collaborators, believe that the results of clinical trials for our product candidates warrant marketing approval, the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may disagree and may not grant marketing approval of our product candidates. In some instances, there can be significant variability in safety or efficacy results between different clinical trials of the same product candidate due to numerous factors, including changes in trial procedures set forth in protocols, differences in the size and type of the patient populations, our ability to enroll trial participants, changes in and adherence to the dosing regimen and other clinical trial protocols and the rate of dropout among clinical trial participants. If we fail to receive positive results in clinical trials of our product candidates, the development timeline and regulatory approval and commercialization prospects for our most advanced product candidates, and, correspondingly, our business and financial prospects would be negatively impacted.

Identifying and qualifying patients to participate in clinical trials of our product candidates is critical to our success. The timing of our clinical trials depends on our ability to recruit patients to participate as well as the completion of required follow-up periods. Patients may be unwilling to participate in our clinical trials because of negative publicity from adverse events related to novel therapeutic approaches, competitive clinical trials for similar patient populations, the existence of current treatments or for other reasons. Enrollment risks are heightened with respect to certain indications that we may target for one or more of our product candidates that may be rare diseases, which may limit the pool of patients that may be enrolled in our planned clinical trials. The timeline for recruiting patients, conducting trials and obtaining regulatory approval of our product candidates may be delayed, which could result in increased costs, delays in advancing our product candidates, delays in testing the effectiveness of our product candidates or termination of the clinical trials altogether. We may not be able to identify, recruit and enroll a sufficient number of patients, or those with the required or desired characteristics, to complete our clinical trials in a timely manner. For example, due to the nature of the indications that we are initially targeting, patients with advanced disease progression may not be suitable candidates for treatment with our product candidates and may be ineligible for enrollment in our clinical trials. Therefore, early diagnosis in patients with our target diseases is critical to our success. Patient enrollment and trial completion is affected by factors including the: - size of the patient population and process for identifying subjects;- design of the trial protocol;- eligibility and exclusion criteria;- safety profile, to date, of the product candidate under study;- perceived risks and benefits of the product candidate under study;- perceived risks and benefits of our approach to treatment of diseases;- availability of competing therapies and clinical trials;- severity of the disease under investigation;- degree of progression of the subject's disease at the time of enrollment;- proximity and availability of clinical trial sites for prospective subjects;- ability to obtain and maintain subject consent;- risk that enrolled subjects will drop out before completion of the trial;- patient referral practices of physicians; and - ability to monitor subjects adequately during and after treatment. In addition, clinical testing of our product candidates generally is performed in multiple jurisdictions, including countries outside of the United States. Our ability to successfully initiate, enroll and complete a clinical trial in any foreign country is subject to numerous risks unique to conducting business in foreign countries, including: - difficulty in establishing or managing relationships with academic partners or CROs and physicians;- different standards for the conduct of clinical trials;- the absence in some countries of established groups with sufficient regulatory expertise for review of protocols related to our novel approach;- our inability to locate qualified local consultants, physicians and partners; and - the potential burden of complying with a variety of foreign laws, medical standards and regulatory requirements, including the regulation of pharmaceutical and biotechnology products and treatment. If we have difficulty enrolling a sufficient number of patients to conduct our clinical trials as planned, we may need to delay, limit or terminate ongoing or planned clinical trials, any of which would have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.

The FDA in the United States, the European Commission based on a positive opinion from the EMA, or national competent regulatory authorities in the EEA, countries and any other comparable regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions must approve product candidates before they can be marketed, promoted or sold in those territories. We have not previously submitted an NDA to the FDA or similar drug approval filings to comparable foreign regulatory authorities for any of our product candidates. We must provide these regulatory authorities with data from preclinical studies and clinical trials that demonstrate that our product candidates are safe and effective for a specific indication before they can be approved for commercial distribution. We cannot be certain that our clinical trials for our product candidates will be successful or that any of our other product candidates will receive approval from the FDA, the European Commission based on a positive opinion from the EMA or any other comparable regulatory authority. Preclinical studies and clinical trials are long, expensive and unpredictable processes that can be subject to extensive delays. We cannot guarantee that any clinical trials will be conducted as planned or completed on schedule, if at all. It may take several years and require significant expenditures to complete the preclinical studies and clinical trials necessary to commercialize a product candidate, and delays or failure are inherently unpredictable and can occur at any stage. New or ongoing public health crises may also impact our and our collaboration partners' abilities to activate trial sites or enroll patients in clinical trials or to otherwise advance those clinical trials. Interruptions resulting from such crises may reduce our, or our collaboration partners', abilities to administer the investigational product to enrolled patients, present difficulties for enrolled patients to adhere to protocol-mandated visits and laboratory/diagnostic testing, increase the possibility of patient dropouts, or impact our, and our suppliers', abilities to provide investigational product to trial sites, all of which could negatively impact the data we are able to obtain from our clinical trials and complicate regulatory review. We may also be required to conduct additional clinical trials or other testing of our product candidates beyond the trials and testing that we contemplate, which may lead to us incurring additional unplanned costs or result in delays in clinical development. In addition, we may be required to redesign or otherwise modify our plans with respect to an ongoing or planned clinical trial, and changing the design of a clinical trial can be expensive and time consuming. An unfavorable outcome in one or more trials would be a major setback for our product candidates and for us. An unfavorable outcome in one or more trials may require us to delay, reduce the scope of or eliminate one or more product development programs, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations and future growth prospects. Many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of marketing approval for our product candidates. The FDA, EMA or the European Commission or any other comparable regulatory authority may disagree with our clinical trial design and our interpretation of data from clinical trials or may change the requirements for approval even after it has reviewed and commented on the design for our clinical trials. In connection with clinical trials of our product candidates, we face a number of risks, including risks that: - a product candidate is ineffective, inferior or a rigorous comparison cannot be made to existing approved products for the same indications;- a product candidate causes or is associated with unacceptable toxicity or has unacceptable side effects;- patients may die or suffer adverse effects for reasons that may or may not be related to the product candidate being tested;- the results may not confirm the positive results of earlier trials;- the FDA's view around product approval and regulatory pathway may change;- the results may not meet the level of statistical significance required by the FDA, the EMA or the European Commission or other relevant regulatory authorities to establish the safety and efficacy of our product candidates for continued trial or strategy for marketing approval; and - our collaborators may be unable or unwilling to perform under their contracts. Furthermore, we sometimes estimate for planning purposes the timing of the accomplishment of various scientific, clinical, regulatory and other product development objectives. These milestones may include our expectations regarding the commencement or completion of scientific studies, clinical trials, the submission of regulatory filings or commercialization objectives. From time to time, we may publicly announce the expected timing of some of these milestones, such as the completion of an ongoing clinical trial, the initiation of other clinical programs, the receipt of marketing approval or a commercial launch of a product. The achievement of many of these milestones may be outside of our control. All of these milestones are based on a variety of assumptions, which may cause the timing of achievement of the milestones to vary considerably from our estimates. If we fail to achieve milestones in the timeframes we expect, the commercialization of our product candidates may be delayed, we may not be entitled to receive certain contractual payments, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial position, results of operations and future growth prospects.

Bicycle molecules are fully synthetic short peptides constrained to form two loops which stabilize their structural geometry. This constraint facilitates target binding with high affinity and selectivity, making Bicycle molecules attractive candidates for drug development. Bicycle molecules are a unique therapeutic modality combining the pharmacology usually associated with a biologic with the manufacturing and pharmacokinetic, or PK, properties of a small molecule. Our product candidates may not demonstrate in patients any or all of the pharmacological benefits we believe they may possess. We have not yet succeeded and may never succeed in demonstrating efficacy and safety for these or any other product candidates in clinical trials or in obtaining marketing approval thereafter. Regulatory authorities have limited experience with Bicycle molecules and may require evidence of safety and efficacy that goes beyond what we and our collaborators have included in our development plans. In such a case, development of Bicycle product candidates may be more costly or time-consuming than expected, and our candidate products and those of our collaboration partners may not prove to be viable. If we are unsuccessful in our development efforts, we may not be able to advance the development of our product candidates, commercialize products, raise capital, expand our business or continue our operations.