GFL Environmental (36E) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
DE:36E Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- EUR 0.17
- Consensus EPS
- EUR 0.17
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -EUR 0.00
- One Year Ago EPS
- EUR 0.15
DE:36E Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- EUR 1.38B
- Expected Revenue
- EUR 1.35B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 22.45M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +27.22%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/28/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026
GFL Environmental's next earnings date is estimated for February 23, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
No slide deck is available for this earnings event.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported record or near-record margins, substantial revenue and free cash flow growth, a third increase to full-year guidance, successful SECURE integration progress, and significant 2027 growth visibility. These strengths outweighed challenges from elevated diesel and landfill costs, cautious near-term volumes, lower free cash flow conversion than the long-term target, and uncertainty related to the strategic review.
For full year 2026, assuming current FX, commodity, and diesel prices, GFL expects revenue of $8.055 billion-$8.075 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.49 billion-$2.495 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $1.02 billion, cash interest of $455 million, and net CapEx of $910 million; adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be 30.9%, with annual growth of over 20% in revenue, 25% in EBITDA, and 35% in adjusted free cash flow, excluding any further M&A in the year. For 2027, management outlined revenue of CAD 9.7 billion to CAD 9.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 32%, adjusted EBITDA of CAD 3.12 billion, adjusted free cash flow conversion of 41% to 42.5%, and adjusted free cash flow of CAD 1.3 billion plus, with top-line organic growth of mid-single digits and a number greater than 5%, 15% of revenue growth from M&A rollover, 50 to 60 basis points of organic EBITDA margin expansion, and 30 to 40 basis points from the rollover of SECURE. SECURE is expected to deliver CAD 550 million of EBITDA and CAD 1.5 billion of revenue for the year, with CAD 25 million of underwritten cost synergies and an incremental CAD 25 million to CAD 50 million of previously referenced synergies; Investor Day targets remain low to mid 30% adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow conversion in the mid 40% range.
- Third-Quarter Revenue Growth Exceeded ExpectationsQ3 revenue grew 27% year over year, driven by 5.7% pricing, a 50 basis point sequential improvement in volume, incremental surcharges and commodity prices, and nearly 19% contribution from M&A, mainly Frontier and SECURE.
- Organic Revenue Growth AcceleratedOrganic revenue growth accelerated 100 basis points over the second quarter, driven by core pricing ahead of expectations and 50 basis point improvements in both volume and commodity prices.
- Landfill Volumes Returned to Positive GrowthLandfill volumes turned positive, including C&D and special waste. C&D landfill tons increased 4.5%, marking the first quarter of positive volume since early 2025; excluding the benefit of a one-time closed-transfer-station cleanup, C&D volume was still modestly positive.
- Industry-Leading Margin ExpansionUnderlying adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 125 basis points year over year. Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin was 31.5%, 30 basis points above expectations and nearly flat with the prior year, representing the highest margin in the company's history despite fuel-cost and M&A headwinds.
- Improved Cost Intensity and Operating EfficiencyNon-fuel cost of sales and SG&A cost intensity improved year over year for the seventh consecutive quarter. Q3 cost of sales as a percentage of revenue improved 70 basis points excluding direct fuel costs and more than 100 basis points including indirect fuel costs, while SG&A cost intensity improved 70 basis points excluding D&A and transaction costs.
- SECURE Acquisition Closed and Added Material ContributionThe SECURE acquisition closed during the quarter and contributed approximately CAD 150 million of revenue, just over CAD 50 million of EBITDA, and CAD 25 million to CAD 30 million of adjusted free cash flow from one month of ownership. SECURE is expected to deliver CAD 550 million of EBITDA and CAD 1.5 billion of revenue for the year.
- SECURE Synergy and Western Canada UpsideIntegration of SECURE is underway, with management confident in achieving CAD 25 million of underwritten cost synergies in the near term and identifying an additional CAD 25 million to CAD 50 million of potential disposal and cross-selling synergies. Management also stated that the opportunity for SECURE is greater than the original underwriting case, although it has not quantified the upside.
- Full-Year 2026 Guidance Raised AgainAssuming current FX, commodity and diesel prices, 2026 guidance was raised to revenue of $8.055 billion-$8.075 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.49 billion-$2.495 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.02 billion, inclusive of cash interest of $455 million and net CapEx of $910 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased 40 basis points from the previous guide to 30.9%.
- Industry-Leading Full-Year Growth OutlookThe updated guidance represents annual growth of over 20% in revenue, 25% in EBITDA, and 35% in adjusted free cash flow. Management said the setup exiting 2026 provides a high degree of visibility to produce similar levels of industry-leading growth again in 2027.
- Strong Adjusted Free Cash Flow PerformanceQ3 adjusted free cash flow was $272.5 million, more than 50% higher than the prior year and 15% better than guidance, partially due to the one-month contribution from SECURE.
- 2027 Framework Indicates Further GrowthManagement described a 2027 framework of approximately CAD 9.7 billion to CAD 9.8 billion of revenue, roughly 32% adjusted EBITDA margin, approximately CAD 3.12 billion of EBITDA, and CAD 1.3 billion or more of free cash flow, with free cash flow conversion expected at approximately 41% to 42%.
- Expanded Pricing and Contract-Management OpportunitiesManagement identified significant additional pricing opportunity within the base business beyond the CAD 40 million-CAD 80 million of incremental pricing opportunity previously outlined for the next three or four years. The company is also evaluating tools such as Harvey and other AI applications to improve contract management, customer accountability and pricing execution.
- Balance Sheet and Capital Deployment Flexibility ImprovedManagement stated that the SECURE transaction enhanced the balance sheet and free cash flow profile. If 2026 ends at mid-threes leverage, leverage would decline by approximately 30-40 basis points in the following year, while a CAD 1 billion acquisition at eight times EBITDA would increase leverage by approximately 15-18 basis points.
- Growth Opportunities in SECURE and Western CanadaSECURE's assets can handle additional volume, and management cited potential activity from East-West and North-South pipelines, LNG projects and terminals. SECURE also has opportunities to deploy capital at high returns as its customer base expands.
- Environmental Services and Infrastructure Businesses Continued to GrowThe ES business increased from approximately CAD 475 million-CAD 500 million of EBITDA inside the public company to approximately CAD 675 million, with a plan to reach roughly CAD 1 billion over five years. GIP increased from just over CAD 200 million of EBITDA to approximately CAD 350 million and has a plan to reach approximately CAD 500 million-CAD 550 million.
- RNG EBITDA Pipeline Remains IntactRNG is expected to contribute approximately $50 million of EBITDA in the current year. The next four projects are expected to add another $40 million-$50 million of EBITDA in 2028, followed by $15 million-$25 million from four smaller projects, also into 2028.
- Strategic Review Attracted Strong InterestThe strategic review attracted strong interest from globally recognized institutions. Bidders were given a final deadline of November 9, and the special committee and its financial advisors were continuing to evaluate the best path forward.
DE:36E Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 0.15- | 0.23 | ― | ― |
| Oct 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 0.170.17 | 0.15 | 13.04% (+0.02) | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 0.150.12 | 0.17 | -26.92% (-0.04) | |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 0.040.05 | -0.06 | 188.89% (+0.11) | |
| Nov 07, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 0.160.15 | 0.21 | -30.30% (-0.06) | |
| Aug 01, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 0.130.17 | 0.19 | -10.34% (-0.02) | |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.130.23 | 0.14 | 63.64% (+0.09) | |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 0.07-0.06 | 0 | ― | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 0.140.14 | 0.03 | 340.00% (+0.11) | |
| Nov 06, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 0.230.21 | 0.2 | 3.13% (+0.01) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.