Zillow Group Class C (0ZG2) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q4 2026, Zillow expects total revenue of $635 million to $665 million, roughly flat year-over-year; mortgage industry purchase origination volumes to decline 10% to 15%; For Sale and Residential revenue to decline roughly 9% to 15% year-over-year; 400 to 500 basis points of headwind to For Sale revenue growth and 900 to 1,000 basis points of headwind to Residential revenue growth; For Sale outperformance similar to the 600 basis points relative underlying outperformance trend; mortgages revenue to decline low-single-digits year-over-year at the mid-point, with origination volume up high-single-digits, Preferred program origination volume up mid-20% year-over-year and Finance First volume declining; Rentals revenue growth similar to the 26% year-over-year growth in Q3; EBITDA expenses of $530 million to $535 million, EBITDA of $100 million to $135 million, implying 18% margins at the mid-point, and EBITDA expenses implying 5% growth year-over-year. Zillow expects to end the year with more than 75% of connections going to Preferred partners and reach 100% in the first half of 2027; for full-year 2026, it expects approximately 10% to 11% revenue growth, including approximately 30% growth in rentals revenue, flat EBITDA margins, EBITDA of $655 million to $690 million, share-based compensation expense down more than 20% year-over-year, a housing market that is flat, and the purchase mortgage industry down mid-single-digits; Zillow Home Loans purchase mortgage originations are expected to grow more than 50% again in 2026.