Ampol Limited (CTXAF) Q2 2026 Earnings Report

The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for H1 2026 driven by exceptional market conditions and the demonstrated strength of Ampol's integrated supply, trading and retail platform. Key highlights include record RCOP earnings (EBITDA +152%, EBIT +245%), robust cash generation, a sizeable interim dividend, Lytton refinery margin outperformance, retail momentum (including rapid U-GO growth), and strategic progress on the EG acquisition and EV charging. Lowlights included higher personal injury metrics, a weaker New Zealand performance, a near-term loss in Energy Solutions, temporary refinery output reduction during turnaround, increased debt from the EG acquisition and a deferred tax cash outflow (~$0.5bn), plus inventory and divestment execution risks. Overall, the positives — large earnings beat, strong cash flow, strategic M&A and clear growth initiatives — materially outweigh the challenges and cyclical risks discussed.

The call’s guidance framed a view that, while H1 FY26 was exceptional (RCOP EBITDA ~A$1.6bn, RCOP EBIT ~A$1.39bn, RCOP NPAT ~A$857–860m and statutory NPAT ~A$1.36–1.4bn on total sales of 12.3bn litres, +1.5%), management expects markets to normalize over time but sees persistent tailwinds and multiple near‑term catalysts: Lytton refiner margin averaged US$28.26/bl (July realized US$27.11/bl with production 524m L), FCCU turnaround will run the refinery at ~70% capacity with the low‑sulfur fuels project due to start up toward year‑end, and the FSSP cap/collar has been lifted from $0.046–$0.064/L to $0.082–$0.10/L (marker ~A$15.90/bl) improving refining stability. Balance‑sheet and capital guidance included net borrowings ~A$3.52bn (net debt/EBITDA ~1.8x), all‑cash EG consideration ~A$1.165bn (cash acquired ~A$29m, A$315m scrip cashed out, ~A$1.1bn added to net debt), an interim dividend A$1.85/share (A$441m), tax cash payment ~A$0.5bn due mid‑2027, A$148m of EFA‑held inventory (no price risk), a return to mid‑cycle leverage of 2–2.5x, and CapEx stepping back toward ~A$450m p.a.; modelling sensitivities noted every US$1/bl of refining margin equates to ~A$60m p.a. of EBITDA. Operational and growth targets reiterated included 12.3bn L group volumes, Convenience Retail volumes +2.4% (shop gross margin 40.1%, avg basket +2.6%), U‑GO at 47 sites (vol growth 64%) targeting ~185 conversions in ~2 years with EG synergies of A$65–80m p.a. within two years, productivity savings A$50m across 2026–27, EV rollout of 79 public bays (up from 49) with breakeven on energy sold targeted by end‑2028 and Energy Solutions at ~A$(15)m EBIT loss in the half.