Crombie Real Estate ate (CROMF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Crombie guided that it expects continued steady cash‑flow and NOI growth, highlighting Q2 commercial same‑asset property cash NOI of 3.2% and reiterating its long‑term same‑property target of 2–3% (expecting to reach or exceed it in 2026); leasing was strong with 121,000 sq ft of renewals (1st‑year +11.3% vs expiring; +12.7% vs weighted average over the renewal term), 33,000 sq ft of new commercial leases, 160,000 sq ft committed at $28.45/sf (63,000 sq ft of new leases averaged $26.26/sf), committed occupancy ~97.5% and economic occupancy 96.6%; portfolio metrics include annual minimum rent compounding ~4% over three years, weighted average anchor lease term ~10 years, nearly 90% of non‑grocery units ≤15,000 sq ft, and target yield‑on‑costs of 6–8% for non‑major projects; Marlstone remains on track to stabilize in H2 2027 with Crombie’s share of cost ~$72M and expected yield on cost 4.5–5.5% (≈25–30% leased end‑June, >30% end‑July); Q2 financials: property revenue $126.2M (+1.9%), net property income $81.8M (+0.6%), FFO $62.4M ($0.33/unit) and AFFO $55.4M ($0.30/unit) (adjusted FFO/AFFO per unit +3.1%/+3.6% ex lease termination income); balance sheet/liquidity: available liquidity ~$478.7M, unencumbered asset pool ~$4.2B, debt/gross fair value 42.6%, debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA 8.01x, interest coverage 3.4x, ~90% fixed‑rate debt, weighted avg term on unsecured notes 3.3 years, Morningstar DBRS BBB ratings; payout ratios this quarter were 68.2% of FFO and 76.9% of AFFO, DRIP contributes ~$40M/year, and subsequent financing included $300M Series N at 4.518% (spread 124 bps) with $200M Series F redeemed.