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Conocophillips (COP) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

8,083 Followers

COP Q3 2026 EPS Results

Actual EPS
$3.27
Consensus EPS
$3.05
Beat/Miss
Beat by +$0.22
One Year Ago EPS
$1.61

COP Q3 2026 Revenue Results

Actual Revenue
$19.52B
Expected Revenue
$18.59B
Beat/Miss
Beat by +$927.07M
YoY Revenue Growth
+30.40%

Earnings Announcement Details

Quarter
Q3 2026
Date
11/05/2026
Time
Before Open
Conference Call
Thursday, November 5, 2026
COP Upcoming Earnings

Conocophillips's next earnings date is estimated for February 11, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio

COP Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00

Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck

Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary

Q3 2026
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026|% Change Since:0.67%|
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive

The call was strongly positive, with management reporting better-than-expected earnings and cash flow, $3.4 billion of shareholder distributions, an 11% dividend increase, strong liquidity, operational progress across the Lower 48, Willow, Canada, and LNG, and expectations for lower capital spending, lower unit costs, production growth, and continued cash flow growth. The company acknowledged regional uncertainty in Qatar, inflation and oilfield-service tightness, early-stage development risks, and unresolved Venezuela and Norway matters, but these issues were presented alongside stated mitigations or disciplined portfolio criteria.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, production is expected to average between 2 million 3 hundred 20 and 2 million 3 hundred 60 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, putting full year production right around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day; capital is expected to reflect modestly higher sequential investment, and the company remains on track to return 45% of CFO to shareholders, with buybacks expected to trend higher in the fourth quarter. For 2027, the high level framework anticipates capital spending to be modestly lower year on year, another year of low-single-digit underlying production growth driven by the Lower 48, per unit operating costs trending lower again, and an objective to return 45% of CFO to shareholders; additional applications of surfactant treatments are expected across the portfolio in 2027 at a very measured pace, NFE is expected to come online in the first half of 27, and Willow remains on track for an early 29 start-up and early part of 29 first production.

  • Strong Third-Quarter Financial ResultsThird-quarter production was 2.302 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, adjusted earnings were $3.27 per share, and cash from operations was $7.2 billion. After $3.1 billion of capital expenditures, the company generated approximately $4 billion of free cash flow.
  • Significant Shareholder DistributionsThe company returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in the third quarter, including $2.4 billion of share repurchases and $1 billion of ordinary dividends. It remains on track to return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders this year, with buybacks expected to trend higher in the fourth quarter.
  • 11% Dividend IncreaseConocoPhillips announced an 11% increase in its quarterly dividend and reiterated its commitment to dividend growth at a rate competitive with the top quartile of the S&P 500.
  • Strong Balance Sheet and LiquidityThe company ended the quarter with $10.4 billion of cash, $1.1 billion of liquid long-term investments, and a net debt-to-cash-from-operations ratio of 0.5x, supporting its A-rated balance sheet.
  • Completed $5 Billion Divestment ProgramConocoPhillips completed its $5 billion divestment program, including $1.6 billion of proceeds received during the third quarter.
  • Long-Term Free Cash Flow InflectionManagement reiterated its expectation for a peer-leading free cash flow inflection of $7 billion by 2029, which would approximately double 2025 free cash flow at a $70 per barrel WTI price. Management also expects cash from operations and free cash flow to continue growing beyond 2029 at a structurally lower reinvestment rate.
  • Deep Low-Cost Inventory BaseThe company cited more than 20 years of low-cost-supply Permian inventory, over two decades of high-quality Tier 1 inventory across its Lower 48 portfolio, and core positions across four liquids-rich unconventional basins.
  • Lower 48 Operational ExecutionThe Lower 48 continued to deliver, including record Permian completion efficiency. The company expects another quarter of sequential Lower 48 production growth in the fourth quarter and another year of low-single-digit underlying production growth driven by the Lower 48 in 2027.
  • Record Completion PerformancePump hours were up 15% versus 2025, one crew pumped 23 hours per day in August, and simulated footage per day improved by 20%. The company attributed the performance to completing more wells simultaneously across the Permian using simul-frac, combined with longer laterals.
  • Longer Laterals and Drilling EfficiencyThe company expects a 15% improvement in lateral lengths compared with 2026 and is doubling the number of three-mile-or-greater laterals across the Lower 48. It also expects continued drilling and completion efficiency improvements following the 15% improvement achieved in 2025.
  • Surfactant Technology Showing Productivity UpliftSurfactant-treated wells have shown a 20% uplift in oil productivity. The company has approximately 1.5 years of data from several groups of wells and plans additional, measured applications across the portfolio in 2027 without a large capital increase.
  • Additional Lower 48 Technology ProgressFar-field diverters have greatly mitigated frac hits with child wells in the Eagle Ford, improving capital efficiency. The technology is being scaled across the Eagle Ford program and deployed more broadly in the Bakken, where management reported encouraging results.
  • Willow Project Remains on TrackWillow is past the halfway point of the overall project, remains on track for early 2029 first oil, and has completed the critical infrastructure civil scope on the North Slope. Process module fabrication exceeded 75% completion, with fabrication expected to conclude in the second quarter before sea lift to Alaska.
  • Willow Exploration and Satellite PotentialThe company drilled approximately four exploration wells during the last winter season and plans to drill roughly four more wells and conduct additional seismic work in the next winter season. Management said the effort is intended to mature opportunities for satellite pads tied back to Willow at a low cost of supply.
  • Surmont Pad Ahead of Schedule and Under BudgetThe company brought Surmont pad 104B online ahead of schedule and under budget. Pad 104A has exceeded the company's expectations, and management expects strong production from pad 104B and continued production growth in Canada.
  • Canada Growth and Fiscal OpportunitiesManagement described Surmont as a low-decline, long-life, low-cost-of-supply asset with future growth options and low capital intensity. The company said proposed Canadian incentives could include accelerated depreciation and support for capital and costs, although the trilateral agreement has not yet been formalized.
  • Expected 2027 Capital and Cost ImprovementsPreliminary 2027 guidance calls for capital spending to be modestly lower year over year, another year of low-single-digit underlying production growth, lower per-unit operating costs, and a 45% cash-from-operations return to shareholders.
  • Structural Cost Reductions Offset InflationStructural cost reductions are continuing to improve adjusted operating costs and are fully offsetting the impact of inflation in a higher commodity price environment. Management expects another year of lower unit operating costs in 2027.
  • Lower Long-Term Reinvestment Rate and BreakevenManagement expects the structural reinvestment rate to be well below 50% in the 2030s, compared with roughly 60% over recent years at a $70 price deck. Pre-dividend free cash flow breakeven is currently in the mid-$40s WTI and is expected to improve to the low-$30s as the company approaches 2029 and beyond.
  • LNG Offtake Expanded to 13 MTPAThe commercial LNG portfolio expanded to 13 million tonnes per annum of offtake. Port Arthur Phase 1 volumes and a small amount of ECA-related volume are expected to come online first, and ConocoPhillips will also receive its 30% share of Port Arthur Phase 1 commissioning cargoes.
  • LNG Pricing Above Free Cash Flow AssumptionManagement said TTF was trading near $30 compared with the $10 assumption used for the free cash flow inflection, while Henry Hub was below the $4 assumption. The costs between the relevant LNG pricing points are effectively locked in for the company.
  • Permian Secondary Zones Provide Additional UpsideDelaware Woodford wells brought online this year are performing at or above expectations, with cost of supply described as probably in the low-$30s or $40. Midland Barnett results are still early but encouraging and are in line with core Midland Basin wells.
  • Portfolio Management DisciplineManagement reiterated that the long-term growth outlook is already captured in the existing portfolio and is not reliant on additional acquisitions. New opportunities must offer attractive fiscal terms and competitive risk-adjusted cost of supply while supporting long-term cash flow growth and a lower reinvestment rate.
  • Potential Portfolio Opportunities in the Middle EastManagement said several Middle East governments are actively seeking capable partners and that ConocoPhillips has the technical and operational capabilities to evaluate those opportunities. Any additions would be intended to complement the existing portfolio rather than simply make the company larger.

COP Earnings History

COP earnings history
Report DateFiscal QuarterForecast / EPSLast Year's EPSEPS YoY ChangePress Release
Feb 11, 20272026 (Q4)3.63-1.02――
Nov 05, 20262026 (Q3)3.053.271.61103.11% (+1.66)
Aug 06, 20262026 (Q2)2.903.241.42128.17% (+1.82)
Apr 30, 20262026 (Q1)1.721.892.09-9.57% (-0.20)
Feb 05, 20262025 (Q4)1.071.021.98-48.48% (-0.96)
Nov 06, 20252025 (Q3)1.411.611.78-9.55% (-0.17)
Aug 08, 20252025 (Q2)1.351.421.98-28.28% (-0.56)
May 08, 20252025 (Q1)2.052.092.032.96% (+0.06)
Feb 06, 20252024 (Q4)1.841.982.4-17.50% (-0.42)
Oct 31, 20242024 (Q3)1.671.782.16-17.59% (-0.38)

The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.

Beat Missed