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Traeger (COOK)
NYSE:COOK
US Market

Traeger (COOK) AI Stock Analysis

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Traeger

(NYSE:COOK)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲( 2.74% Upside)
Traeger's overall stock score is weighed down by significant financial challenges, such as declining revenue and high leverage, resulting in a low financial performance score. Technical analysis signals are mixed, showing potential downward pressure. Valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. The earnings call provides some optimism with growth in the grills segment and strategic cost management, but is offset by uncertainty and the withdrawal of guidance. Overall, the stock faces considerable risks, necessitating cautious consideration by investors.
Positive Factors
Strategic Initiative
Traeger's comprehensive enterprise initiative aims to streamline the company's organizational structure and rebalance its cost base to improve profitability and cash flow generation.
Strong Brand
Traeger has a strong, differentiated brand that is well positioned to gain market share under a more normalized industry demand environment.
Tariff Mitigation
The company is able to offset nearly 80% of the combined 45% Chinese tariff through vendor negotiations, increased prices, and supply chain efficiencies.
Negative Factors
Consumer Spending
The biggest risk could be potential retail destocking at the end of the season if underlying demand significantly weakens on a broader pullback in consumer discretionary spend.
Guidance Withdrawal
Traeger withdrew FY2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving trade policy, and consumer sentiment.
Tariff Impact
Traeger's grills produced in China were subject to a 45% tariff, impacting cost structure.

Traeger (COOK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Traeger Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTraeger Inc., operating under the ticker symbol COOK, is a leading manufacturer and marketer of wood pellet grills, known for revolutionizing outdoor cooking. The company specializes in high-quality grills that offer a unique blend of traditional and modern cooking techniques through its innovative wood pellet technology. Traeger's product line includes a variety of grills, grilling accessories, wood pellets, and other related cooking products, catering to both amateur and professional outdoor cooking enthusiasts.
How the Company Makes MoneyTraeger makes money primarily through the sale of its wood pellet grills, which are its flagship products. These grills are sold directly to consumers via the company's website, as well as through a network of third-party retailers. In addition to grill sales, Traeger generates revenue from the sale of wood pellets, which are used as fuel for the grills, and a range of accessories and consumables such as rubs, sauces, and other grilling tools. Traeger also benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations that enhance its brand visibility and market reach. The combination of direct sales, retail partnerships, and a robust product offering contributes to Traeger's overall revenue generation.

Traeger Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Traeger's financial health displays significant challenges with declining revenues and profitability, high leverage, and liquidity concerns. While there are some improvements in operating cash flow efficiency, overall financial stability and profitability remain weak. Continued strategic adjustments are needed to enhance financial performance and mitigate risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a declining trend in revenue with a significant drop in net income, indicating financial struggles. Gross profit margin is moderately strong at 40.43% TTM, but the net profit margin is negative at -5.00% TTM, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved slightly in the TTM period but remain low, indicating operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.62, indicating significant leverage which could pose risks. The return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's struggle to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio at 33.85% TTM shows moderate financial stability, but the high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a positive turn with operating cash flow exceeding net income, suggesting improved cash generation efficiency. Free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, but free cash flow growth is negative compared to previous periods, pointing to potential liquidity issues.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
602.44M604.07M605.88M655.90M785.54M545.77M
Gross Profit
243.55M255.47M223.56M228.77M303.71M235.36M
EBIT
541.00K-2.94M-50.52M-104.29M-54.40M58.90M
EBITDA
28.23M53.86M6.64M-296.52M-16.13M99.31M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-30.10M-34.01M-84.40M-382.14M-88.82M31.05M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.03M14.98M29.92M39.05M16.74M11.56M
Total Assets
825.60M830.68M860.76M946.72M1.18B989.58M
Total Debt
453.51M434.13M458.70M494.25M421.63M437.84M
Net Debt
441.48M419.15M428.78M455.20M404.89M426.29M
Total Liabilities
546.05M554.25M569.41M611.85M571.50M514.54M
Stockholders Equity
279.55M276.43M291.35M334.87M609.52M475.04M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
7.53M11.89M43.64M-13.81M-51.47M31.96M
Operating Cash Flow
15.65M23.89M64.04M5.09M-27.19M46.60M
Investing Cash Flow
-8.48M-12.33M-17.38M-18.90M-81.13M-27.34M
Financing Cash Flow
-18.75M-26.50M-68.30M48.63M113.51M-14.78M

Traeger Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.46
Price Trends
50DMA
1.55
Negative
100DMA
1.96
Negative
200DMA
2.58
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Negative
RSI
41.96
Neutral
STOCH
32.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COOK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.46, below the 50-day MA of 1.55, and below the 200-day MA of 2.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COOK.

Traeger Risk Analysis

Traeger disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Traeger reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Traeger Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$171.96M12.839.48%2.02%7.24%-9.51%
HBHBB
72
Outperform
$249.64M7.4521.86%2.52%5.46%18.70%
62
Neutral
$6.97B11.362.77%3.91%2.66%-22.00%
57
Neutral
$72.40M-5.83%5.26%-0.39%-122.38%
52
Neutral
$102.21M-5.89%9.63%-8.26%-233.72%
48
Neutral
$194.04M-10.49%0.80%62.80%
45
Neutral
$205.98M9.10%-12.36%37.69%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
COOK
Traeger
1.38
-0.80
-36.70%
FLXS
Flexsteel
30.62
-5.01
-14.06%
HOFT
Hooker Furniture
9.18
-7.36
-44.50%
LCUT
Lifetime Brands
3.16
-7.58
-70.58%
SNBR
Sleep Number
9.50
-4.16
-30.45%
HBB
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company
17.73
-0.82
-4.42%

Traeger Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.35%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Traeger's earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While the company showcased growth in its grills business and successful product launches, it faces significant challenges due to tariff impacts, declines in the accessories segment, and economic uncertainty leading to the withdrawal of financial guidance.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Grills Business Growth
Grills sales increased by 13% compared to the prior year, supported by positive consumer demand and successful product launches like the Woodridge series.
Woodridge Series Success
The Woodridge series, a new wood pellet grill introduced in January, received strong consumer reception with demand outperforming expectations and achieving high product reviews.
Cost Management and Mitigation Strategies
Traeger has implemented significant tariff mitigation strategies including sourcing diversification, cost reductions, and strategic pricing increases to offset tariff impacts.
Adjusted Net Income Improvement
Adjusted net income for the quarter was $7 million compared to $5 million in the same period of 2024, indicating improved profitability.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Overall revenues declined by 1% compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to declines in the accessories and consumables segments.
MEATER Segment Struggles
Accessories revenue decreased by 27%, largely driven by a decline in MEATER sales, attributed to increased competition and a slowing market for smart thermometers.
Tariff Uncertainty and Impact
The company faces significant tariff exposure with grills produced in China subject to a 45% tariff, leading to challenges in managing costs and necessitating strategic price increases.
Withdrawal of Financial Guidance
Due to economic uncertainty and tariff impacts, Traeger has withdrawn its financial guidance for fiscal year 2025, indicating challenges in forecasting future performance.
Company Guidance
During Traeger's First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and insights into their financial performance and strategic priorities. Traeger reported a 1% decline in revenues compared to the first quarter of 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $23 million, slightly down from $24 million the previous year. The Grills business experienced a 13% increase in sales, while the Accessories business saw a 27% decline, primarily due to softness in MEATER sales. The company faces significant challenges from tariffs, with grills produced in China subject to a 45% tariff and those from Vietnam at 25%. Traeger is implementing mitigation strategies, including supply chain cost reductions, sourcing diversification, and strategic pricing increases, to offset these tariff impacts. The company has withdrawn its prior financial guidance for fiscal 2025 due to uncertainty in consumer demand and the evolving trade policy landscape. Despite these challenges, Traeger continues to focus on long-term growth strategies, including product innovation and brand awareness efforts.

Traeger Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Traeger Announces Strategic Initiative for Cost Optimization
Neutral
May 19, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Traeger, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a strategic initiative aimed at streamlining the company’s organizational structure and rebalancing its cost base to enhance profitability and cash flow. This initiative involves a multi-step optimization plan, including workforce reductions and centralization efforts, expected to be largely completed by the end of fiscal year 2025. While the company has not yet determined the specific cost implications, further details will be announced as the plan progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (COOK) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Traeger stock, see the COOK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Traeger Amends CEO Compensation Agreement in April 2025
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

On April 10, 2025, Traeger, Inc. announced an amendment to the letter agreement with CEO Jeremy Andrus, originally dated August 2, 2021. The amended agreement, effective January 1, 2025, includes a new annual base salary of $750,000 for Mr. Andrus, eligibility for a target annual bonus of 150% of his base salary, and participation in the Executive Change in Control Severance Plan. The amendment also outlines severance benefits, including cash severance and COBRA payments, in the event of Mr. Andrus’ termination under specified conditions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.