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Compass Minerals International Inc (CMP)
NYSE:CMP

Compass Minerals International (CMP) AI Stock Analysis

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Compass Minerals International

(NYSE:CMP)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-3.13%Downside)
Compass Minerals International's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. While technical indicators are positive, financial performance and valuation present significant challenges. Recent corporate events and earnings call developments show potential for recovery, but persistent profitability issues weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Cold Weather Impact
Cold weather positions the company well for better earnings later in F2025 and perhaps in F2026 as inventories are depleted due to higher demand for salt.
Plant Nutrition Performance
Plant Nutrition EBITDA guidance increased, suggesting better performance in that segment.
Stock Target Price
Raising target price back to $20 following stabilization and $15M FY guidance increase.
Negative Factors
Dividend Concerns
Compass cut its dividend significantly and eventually eliminated it entirely, which may concern income-focused investors.
Legal and Financial Concerns
The company was fined by the SEC for misleading investors and was subsequently sued, which may impact its reputation and financial standing.
Operational Challenges
The company's Q1 EBITDA significantly missed consensus expectations, indicating operational challenges.

Compass Minerals International (CMP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Compass Minerals International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCompass Minerals International, Inc. is a leading producer of essential minerals, primarily focused on salt, plant nutrients, and specialty chemicals. The company operates in sectors such as agricultural, food, and water treatment industries. Its core products include deicing salt for highway and consumer use, sulfate of potash for specialty fertilizers, and other mineral-based products.
How the Company Makes MoneyCompass Minerals International generates revenue through the production and sale of three main product lines: salt, plant nutrition, and specialty chemicals. The salt segment, which includes highway deicing and consumer and industrial salt, is a major revenue driver, particularly during winter months when demand for deicing products peaks. The plant nutrition segment focuses on producing sulfate of potash, a premium fertilizer component used in high-value crops. Specialty chemicals include magnesium chloride and other products used in various industrial applications. The company's revenue is also supported by long-term contracts and strategic partnerships with government entities and private sector clients, ensuring consistent demand and stable cash flow.

Compass Minerals International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 41.46%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company on the path to recovery, with significant improvements in inventory management and debt reduction. However, ongoing challenges in pricing and margins continue to impact overall performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Execution of Back-to-Basic Strategy
North American highway de-icing inventory values decreased by 47% year-over-year, while volumes were down 59%. This resulted in a $145 million working capital release and a $170 million reduction in total debt.
Revenue and Volume Growth
Consolidated revenue for the second quarter was $495 million, up 36% year-over-year. Salt business revenue increased to $433 million from $310 million, with volumes up 47% compared to the prior period.
Improved Financial Position
The company reduced total net debt by $171 million sequentially, with liquidity reaching $329 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was increased to a midpoint of $188 million for the year.
Negative Updates
Continued Operating Losses
The company reported an operating loss of $3.1 million for the quarter, although this was an improvement from a $39.3 million loss last year.
Decreased Pricing and Margins in Salt Business
Pricing in the salt business was down 5% year-over-year, and operating earnings per ton decreased 31%, while adjusted EBITDA per ton declined 30%.
Challenges in Plant Nutrition Business
Despite a 16% increase in revenue, pricing in the Plant Nutrition business was down 8%, and distribution costs per ton increased by 13%.
Company Guidance
During the Compass Minerals' Second Fiscal 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. The North American highway de-icing inventory values have decreased by 47% year-over-year, with volumes down by 59%, leading to a $145 million working capital release. This reduction helped decrease total debt by over $170 million within the quarter. The company reported consolidated revenue of $495 million, a 36% increase year-over-year, while the operating loss improved from $39.3 million last year to $3.1 million this quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $84.1 million, with a modified adjusted EBITDA of $76.2 million. Compass Minerals increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the year to $188 million at the midpoint, up from the previous $173 million. Additionally, capital expenditures are expected to remain between $75 million and $85 million, aligning with their Back-to-Basic strategy to optimize production, manage costs, and enhance free cash flow.

Compass Minerals International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Compass Minerals International is facing significant financial challenges characterized by declining revenue and negative profitability metrics. The high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, and the negative cash flow further underscores the need for strategic improvements.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Compass Minerals International has faced significant challenges in its recent performance with a negative TTM net income and declining revenue. The company's TTM gross profit margin is 17.4%, which reflects a decrease from previous years. The net profit margin has turned negative, indicating issues with profitability. Additionally, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, implying operational difficulties.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage with a ratio of 2.90. This could pose risks if earnings do not improve. The equity ratio is 19.3%, suggesting moderate financial stability. Return on equity is negative due to the net losses, highlighting the need for improved profitability.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The cash flow statement shows negative free cash flow growth, with a decline from the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative net income. The company needs to enhance its cash generation capabilities to improve financial flexibility.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.08B1.12B1.20B1.24B1.49B1.49B
Gross Profit
158.20M195.00M233.90M198.00M336.80M293.90M
EBIT
-62.70M-116.80M79.10M-74.30M163.60M130.30M
EBITDA
46.40M-13.70M90.70M39.40M153.00M277.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-154.40M-206.10M15.50M-36.70M59.50M62.50M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
45.80M20.20M38.70M46.10M34.70M27.00M
Total Assets
1.72B1.64B1.82B1.64B2.44B2.37B
Total Debt
974.40M917.50M805.30M947.60M1.42B1.36B
Net Debt
928.60M897.30M766.60M901.50M1.38B1.34B
Total Liabilities
1.46B1.32B1.30B1.39B1.91B1.83B
Stockholders Equity
263.00M316.60M517.20M257.00M529.60M540.20M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-24.80M-99.80M-48.30M23.80M61.50M93.90M
Operating Cash Flow
80.00M14.40M101.10M120.50M159.60M190.70M
Investing Cash Flow
-89.00M-116.10M-173.00M-80.00M-100.40M-99.60M
Financing Cash Flow
35.30M83.10M64.00M-14.30M-50.50M-85.90M

Compass Minerals International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.13
Price Trends
50DMA
14.30
Positive
100DMA
12.96
Positive
200DMA
12.45
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.48
Positive
RSI
72.66
Negative
STOCH
54.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.10, above the 50-day MA of 14.30, and above the 200-day MA of 12.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 72.66 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMP.

Compass Minerals International Risk Analysis

Compass Minerals International disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Compass Minerals International reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Compass Minerals International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GSGSM
56
Neutral
$684.92M27.86-7.29%1.44%-4.98%-192.96%
55
Neutral
$298.35M-4.38%105.14%84.95%
CMCMP
54
Neutral
$792.45M-46.32%1.61%5.81%-78.45%
51
Neutral
$2.01B-1.11-21.16%3.67%2.69%-30.65%
LZLZM
44
Neutral
$318.06M-814.96%
TMTMC
42
Neutral
$1.56B-667.42%-3.49%
IPIPX
35
Underperform
$712.83M-40.55%-15.85%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CMP
Compass Minerals International
20.13
6.54
48.12%
GSM
Ferroglobe
3.86
-2.01
-34.24%
UAMY
United States Antimony
2.75
2.43
759.38%
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
4.24
2.78
190.41%
LZM
Lifezone Metals
4.08
-4.87
-54.41%
IPX
Iperionx Ltd. ADR
24.42
8.66
54.95%

Compass Minerals International Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Compass Minerals Announces $650 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Compass Minerals announced the pricing of a $650 million offering of senior notes due 2030, with the sale expected to close around June 16, 2025. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, redeem $350 million of senior notes due 2027, and for general corporate purposes. Concurrently, the company plans to amend its senior secured credit agreement to adjust financial covenants and revolving commitments. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and enhance its financial flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMP) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Compass Minerals International stock, see the CMP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.