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Cherry Hill Mortgage
(NYSE:CHMI)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(32.74% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is primarily held back by uneven financial durability (volatile history, contracting TTM revenue, and mixed leverage signals) and a cautious earnings-call backdrop (recent book value decline and elevated volatility risk). Offsetting these are constructive technical momentum (price above major moving averages), attractive headline valuation via a very high dividend yield with a moderate P/E, and a positive merger catalyst that could improve scale and efficiency if completed.
Positive Factors
Large MSR portfolio
A sizable MSR book (UPB $15.6B; market value ≈$213M; ~41% of equity) provides persistent servicing fee cash flows and diversification versus pure RMBS mark-to-market returns. This structural income source supports recurring revenue and can cushion interest‑rate driven RMBS volatility over months.
Negative Factors
Earnings mark‑to‑market volatility
Material mark-to-market swings produced GAAP and comprehensive losses and a 6.1% quarterly book value decline. Because derivatives are not hedge-accounted for GAAP, fair-value volatility flows through earnings, creating persistent income unpredictability and complicating dividend and capital planning.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large MSR portfolio
A sizable MSR book (UPB $15.6B; market value ≈$213M; ~41% of equity) provides persistent servicing fee cash flows and diversification versus pure RMBS mark-to-market returns. This structural income source supports recurring revenue and can cushion interest‑rate driven RMBS volatility over months.
Read all positive factors
Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$107.52M
Dividend Yield13.7%
Average Volume (3M)188.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-13.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees14
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding36,947,395
10 Day Avg. Volume148,663
30 Day Avg. Volume188,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.39
Price to Sales (P/S)0.88
P/FCF Ratio-19.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.10Price Target Upside37.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.80M
Cherry Hill Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI) is a financial entity specializing in residential real estate, dedicated to the acquisition, investment, and oversight of home loan-backed assets across the United States. The company structures i...
How the Company Makes Money
CHMI makes money primarily by earning net interest income and investment-related gains from a levered portfolio of residential mortgage assets. Key revenue/earnings drivers typically include: (1) Net interest income from mortgage assets: CHMI purc...
Cherry Hill Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced tone: management highlighted prudent risk management (hedges, stable leverage, $47M cash), resilience in MSR valuation, improved RMBS net interest spreads and near-term recovery in book value, but results were materially impacted by geopolitical-driven market volatility leading to a 6.1% q/q book value decline, GAAP and comprehensive losses, and elevated uncertainty about future spread movements. Positives such as liquidity, hedging, portfolio composition, and post-quarter book-value recovery offset but did not fully outweigh the quarter's mark-to-market losses and macro-driven risks.Positive Updates
Risk Management and Hedging Maintained
Management acted quickly to manage interest rate exposure in March, holding combined interest-rate derivative notional of approximately $396 million (swaps, TBAs, treasury futures, swap futures). Financial leverage remained prudent and stable at 5.5x and the hedge strategy was described as intact, helping mitigate book value impact through the quarter.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Book Value and NAV Declines
Book value per common share declined to $3.23 from $3.44 as of Dec 31, a decrease of 6.1% for the quarter. NAV (including preferred stock) declined $7.9 million or 3.3% relative to December 31.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Risk Management and Hedging Maintained
Management acted quickly to manage interest rate exposure in March, holding combined interest-rate derivative notional of approximately $396 million (swaps, TBAs, treasury futures, swap futures). Financial leverage remained prudent and stable at 5.5x and the hedge strategy was described as intact, helping mitigate book value impact through the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized elevated near‑term volatility until Middle East stability, while expecting a low MSR recapture rate and relatively low net CPR (MSR net CPR ~4.5% in Q1), RMBS prepayments ~8% CPR (down from 8.5% prior quarter), mortgage rates averaging 6.1% for the quarter and settling near 6.4% (refinanceable universe ~14% today vs ~30% at a 5.5% rate), and attractive levered return potential (RMBS mid‑teens to high‑teens, MSR ~10–12%); portfolio metrics at quarter end included MSR UPB $15.6B with market value ≈$213M (MSR ≈41% of equity capital, ≈21% of investable assets excl. cash), RMBS (incl. TBAs) ≈$807M (≈42% of equity capital, ≈79% of investable assets excl. cash), RMBS net interest spread 2.9% with financing rate 3.78% (from 3.99%) and derivatives notional ≈$396M used for hedging; financials/guidance points included GAAP net loss $2M ($0.05/diluted share), comprehensive loss $4.4M ($0.12/share), EAD $5.3M ($0.14/share), book value $3.23 (down 6.1% q/q from $3.44), NAV down $7.9M (3.3%), economic return -3.2%, leverage 5.5x, unrestricted cash $47M, operating expenses $3.3M, declared common dividend $0.10 and preferred dividends $0.5125 (Series A) and $0.5978 (Series B), with April 30 book value up nearly 2% vs March 31 (excluding any Q2 dividend accrual) and a cited mortgage spread trading range roughly 130–180 (ended Q1 ~165 vs 7‑year swaps, recently ~150).Cherry Hill Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
51
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 106.97M | 105.39M | 34.58M | -21.20M | 40.19M | 28.14M |
| Gross Profit | 87.53M | 96.11M | 34.58M | -21.20M | 40.19M | 28.14M |
| EBITDA | 64.87M | 59.23M | 72.08M | 16.71M | 44.82M | 35.32M |
| Net Income | 16.32M | 6.83M | 11.97M | -34.79M | 21.74M | 12.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.40B | 1.54B | 1.49B | 1.39B | 1.41B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.06M | 54.95M | 46.31M | 52.89M | 173.58M | 124.52M |
| Total Debt | 140.65M | 1.28B | 151.23M | 169.31M | 183.89M | 145.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.17B | 1.30B | 1.26B | 1.13B | 1.14B | 1.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 226.44M | 236.04M | 230.34M | 255.48M | 262.04M | 275.87M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 23.22M | -4.69M | -4.69M | 40.66M | 21.88M | -7.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 23.22M | -4.69M | -4.69M | 40.66M | 59.91M | 48.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 75.86M | -141.33M | -141.33M | -104.05M | -128.20M | 166.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -89.58M | 147.46M | 147.46M | 67.17M | 57.07M | -267.97M |
Cherry Hill Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
2.26
Price Trends
2.36
Positive
2.40
Positive
2.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
80.99
Negative
93.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CHMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.45, below the 50-day MA of 2.36, and below the 200-day MA of 2.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CHMI.
Cherry Hill Mortgage Risk Analysis
Cherry Hill Mortgage disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cherry Hill Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Cherry Hill Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $47.19M | 9.85 | 11.02% | 11.34% | -12.38% | -13.43% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
57 Neutral | $107.52M | 16.20 | 7.07% | 17.70% | -13.80% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $36.45M | -1.85 | -0.90% | 20.03% | -22.88% | -293.94% | |
46 Neutral | $37.64M | -3.01 | -4.70% | 20.00% | 69.76% | 71.12% | |
45 Neutral | $58.80M | -0.59 | -15.12% | 15.04% | -25.30% | 5.00% | |
44 Neutral | $100.69M | -13.19 | 6.11% | ― | -2.62% | -7470.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CHMI
Cherry Hill Mortgage
2.92
0.48
19.48%
LOAN
Manhattan Bridge Capital
4.12
-0.77
-15.69%
ACR
ACRES Commercial Realty
14.25
-5.90
-29.28%
LFT
Lument Finance Trust
0.66
-1.20
-64.59%
SACH
Sachem Capital
0.79
-0.21
-20.92%
GPMT
Granite Point Mortgage
1.19
-1.32
-52.53%
Cherry Hill Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Cherry Hill Mortgage to Merge with TPG Mortgage Trust
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 9, 2026, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation agreed to merge with TPG Mortgage Investment Trust in a stock-and-cash transaction that values Cherry Hill at about $117.5 million and implies $3.10 per share for its investors. The de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.