Tabcorp Holdings Limited (THL) Q4 2026 Earnings Report

The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: double-digit EBITDA and EBIT growth, strong cash conversion, improved ROIC, reduced leverage, strategic wins (National Tote, Sky rights, BetMakers agreement) and tangible retail momentum (Phase 1 benefits, strong World Cup performance). These positives are balanced against regulatory overhang (AUSTRAC), modest top-line growth, continued decline in pari-mutuel turnover, near-term higher CapEx (EBTs) and integration/approval risk for the BetMakers acquisition. Management expects continued cost discipline and execution on strategic initiatives, but some benefits (National Tote, full terminal returns, BetMakers synergies) will take time to fully realize.

Management guided FY'27 wagering turnover to be similar to FY'26 (noting the FIFA World Cup drove roughly 30–50 basis points of FY'26 turnover with about half the tournament falling in FY'27), flagged a step‑up in capital expenditure to up to $160m in FY'27 (including about $65m on new EBTs as part of a ~$140m terminals program expected to deliver at least a 25% return and ~ $13m of D&A), reiterated OpEx growth of 3.0–3.5% (about half driven by regulatory/risk uplift and loyalty investment) while remaining vigilant on costs, and said they expect to build on Phase 1 retail benefits (A$22m EBITDA realized in FY'26) and Victorian license gains (A$22m variable contribution / A$12m EBITDA); FY'26 anchors include group revenue $2.64bn, EBITDA $432m, ROIC 12% (up 240bps), leverage 1.2x (pro‑forma 1.6x including BetMakers), liquidity ~$1.2bn and underlying cash conversion guidance of 90–100% (98% achieved).