Banque Cantonale Vaudoise (BCVN) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance from the call was cautious-optimistic: the bank does not expect a recession and sees Swiss GDP growth around 1% this year and slightly higher next year, while mortgage growth is targeted at roughly 4% p.a. (about 2% year‑to‑date/on track) driven by 1–1.5% population growth and a vacancy rate of 0.87% expected to persist for 2–3 years; trade finance is not expected to expand over the next 2–3 years given geopolitical risks, credit losses remain limited (COVID bridge loans ~93% repaid — ~83% by customers, ~8% by guarantor — with only a small portion likely to be lost), and new provisions are minimal. Financial metrics highlighted include H1 net profit CHF 225m (up ~5% YoY), total income +CHF14m, economic net interest income CHF315m (+CHF2m), customer deposits +CHF1.1bn (sight + other deposits +3%), financing up ~CHF700m, assets under management CHF142bn (two‑thirds of recent AUM growth from market performance), risk‑weighted assets ~+5% YoY with a slight CET1 impact (c.0.2p.p.), operating costs essentially flat (+~1% including personnel/opex/amortization), comfortable LCR/NSFR and leverage ratios, and IT insourcing substantially complete so no further material run‑rate cost increases are expected.