HubSpot (96) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q4 2026, HubSpot is not providing a net adds estimate but expects to be below the 5,000 level achieved in Q3, with low to mid-single-digit ASRPC growth in constant currency; total as reported revenue is expected to be $945 million to $947 million, up 12% year-over-year on an as reported and constant currency basis, non-GAAP operating income is expected to be $216 million to $217 million, representing a 23% margin, and non-GAAP diluted net income per share is expected to be $3.85 to $3.87, representing growth of 25%, based on 48.9 million fully diluted shares outstanding. For full year 2026, net revenue retention is expected to be down about 2 points year-over-year, customer dollar retention is expected to remain strong and stable in the high 80s, net new ARR is expected to decline year-over-year, total as reported revenue is expected to be $3.685 billion to $3.687 billion, up 18% year-over-year on an as-reported basis and 16% in constant currency, non-GAAP operating income is expected to be $772 million to $773 million, representing a 21% margin, and non-GAAP diluted net income per share is expected to be $13.59 to $13.61, representing growth of 40%, based on 50.4 million fully diluted shares outstanding; Q4 GAAP operating income will include an expected $60 million to $70 million charge for severance costs, CapEx as a percentage of revenue is expected to be 5% to 6%, free cash flow is expected to be about $720 million, and HubSpot remains confident in delivering its 2027 non-GAAP operating margin target of 23% to 24%.