Mosaic Co (02M) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call had a cautiously positive overall tone. Management emphasized a difficult phosphate environment, sulfur-driven curtailments, reduced phosphate application, and a fourth-quarter EBITDA trough, but highlighted positive free cash flow expectations, balance-sheet flexibility, cost reductions, improving phosphate demand, strong potash fundamentals, operational improvements, and strong Biosciences growth.

Mosaic expects positive free cash flow in the second half of this year, fourth-quarter sulfur costs of $800 to $850 per ton, ammonia costs of $590 to $610 per ton, and realized stripping margins in the mid-$300s per ton; its fourth quarter contract sulfur price is $615 per ton. It expects 2026 SG&A to be $510 million to $530 million and 2027 SG&A to be below $500 million, while targeting 2027 capital expenditures of below $1 billion, roughly $200 million below where we expect to finish 2026. Mosaic continues to target annual potash production of more than 9 million tons over the longer term, with Esterhazy on pace for over 5 million tons of production in 2027, and expects Mosaic Biosciences to generate nearly $135 million in 2026, launch 8 to 10 new products this year, deliver positive EBITDA, and pursue its goal of generating $200 million of EBITDA from the business by 2030. It has sulfur going into 2027 to meet about 65-66% of its production needs, expects global phosphate shipments to be down approximately 20 million tons from last year with this trend carrying over into 2027, and said Q4 is gonna be a trough in terms of EBITDA especially in the phosphate segment.