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Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q1, 2026
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Mar 31, 2026, filed May 05, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
Risk Highlights Q1, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 78
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 1We may face risks associated with our use and development of AI models.
We use and develop AI Technologies in our business, and are making significant investments in this area. For example, we use AI Technologies to power the aprevo Technology Platform and drive continuous improvements in the production and performance of the platform. New products that we develop, including expansion into new indications, are also likely to incorporate AI Technologies. We expect that increased investment will be required in the future to continuously improve our use and development of AI Technologies. As with many technological innovations, there are significant risks involved in developing, maintaining, and deploying these technologies, and there can be no assurance that the usage of or our investments in such technologies will always enhance our products or be beneficial to our business, including our efficiency or results of operations. In particular, if the models underlying our AI Technologies are: incorrectly designed or implemented; trained or reliant on incomplete, inadequate, inaccurate, biased, or otherwise poor quality data, or on data to which we do not have sufficient rights or in relation to which we and/or the providers of such data have not implemented sufficient legal compliance measures; used without sufficient oversight and governance to ensure their responsible use; misused or used outside of scope of applicable regulatory authorizations; and/or adversely impacted by unforeseen defects, technical challenges, cybersecurity threats, or material performance issues, the performance of our products and business, as well as our reputation and the reputations of our customers, could suffer or we could incur liability resulting from the violation of laws or contracts to which we are a party, regulatory enforcement actions, or civil claims. With respect to our products or services that incorporate AI Technologies, the market for such products and services is rapidly evolving, and important assumptions about the characteristics of targeted markets, pricing, sales cycles, cost, performance, and perceived value associated with our services or products may be inaccurate. We cannot be sure that the market will continue to grow or that it will grow in ways that we anticipate. In addition, market acceptance and consumer perceptions of products and services that incorporate AI Technologies are uncertain. Our failure to successfully develop and commercialize our products or services involving AI Technologies could depress the market price of our stock and impair our ability to: raise capital; expand our business; provide, improve, and diversify our product offerings; continue our operations and efficiently manage our operating expenses; and respond effectively to competitive developments. For the aprevo Technology Platform, as well as for any potential future AI Technology-driven products, performance of the algorithms is generally assessed by comparing the output of the algorithms against a clinically derived reference standard ("ground truth") for a specified dataset. This applies to internal evaluation of an algorithm's performance, supporting external presentations and publications, and testing to support regulatory submissions. The aprevo Technology Platform output will not always agree with the opinion of a surgeon or healthcare professional, and in some cases, multiple surgeons will not agree with each other. However, while the AI Technologies we work with are novel and complex, and while we constantly work to improve our products and algorithms, we cannot assure you that our AI Technologies will be able to perform as intended under all circumstances. If we are deemed to not have sufficient rights to the data we use to train our generative AI Technologies, we may be subject to litigation by the owners of the content or other materials that comprise such data, similar to the litigation that is currently pending in various U.S. courts against other developers of generative AI Technologies, and in which the outcome of such litigation is uncertain. If we are unable to obtain sufficient rights to use such data under applicable regulatory frameworks or our agreements with our customers, or our customers were to withdraw or withhold their data from us, our ability to continue to develop our products and services to our customers, and our revenue prospects, could be materially adversely impacted. We are in varying stages of development in relation to our products and platforms involving AI Technologies. The continuous development, maintenance, and operation of our AI Technologies is expensive and complex, and may involve unforeseen difficulties including material performance problems, undetected defects, or errors. For instance, the models underlying AI Technologies can experience decay (also known as "model drift") in which its performance and accuracy decreases over time without further human intervention to correct such decay. We may not be successful in our ongoing development and maintenance of these technologies in the face of novel and evolving technical, reputational, and market factors. Our efforts to develop proprietary AI models could increase our operating costs. Our ability to develop proprietary AI models may be limited by our access to processing infrastructure or training data, and we may be dependent on third-party providers for such resources. A number of aspects of intellectual property protection in the field of AI and machine learning are currently under development, and there is uncertainty and ongoing litigation in different jurisdictions as to the degree and extent of protection warranted for AI and machine learning systems and relevant system input and outputs. The law is also uncertain across jurisdictions regarding the copyright ownership of content that is produced in whole or in part by generative AI tools. If we fail to obtain protection for the intellectual property rights concerning our AI Technologies, or later have our intellectual property rights invalidated or otherwise diminished, our competitors may be able to take advantage of our research and development efforts to develop competing products that could adversely affect our business, reputation, and financial condition. Given the long history of development of AI Technologies, other parties may have (or in the future may obtain) patents or other proprietary rights that would prevent, limit, or interfere with our ability to make, use, or sell our own AI Technologies. The regulatory framework for AI Technologies is rapidly evolving as many federal, state, and foreign government bodies and agencies have introduced or are currently considering additional laws and regulations. The FDA has issued guidance documents relating to the incorporation of AI Technologies into medical devices. In addition, existing laws and regulations may be interpreted in ways that would affect the operation of our AI Technologies, or could be rescinded or amended as new administrations take differing approaches to evolving AI Technologies. As a result, implementation standards and enforcement practices are likely to remain uncertain for the foreseeable future, and we cannot yet completely determine the impact that future laws, regulations, standards, or market perception of their requirements may have on our business and may not always be able to anticipate how to respond to these laws or regulations. Certain existing legal regimes (e.g., relating to FDA submissions or data privacy) regulate certain aspects of AI Technologies, and new laws regulating AI Technologies either entered into force around the globe or are expected to enter into force in the coming years. In the United States, the current Presidential administration rescinded an executive order relating to AI Technologies that was previously implemented by the former Presidential administration. Further, legislation and regulations related to AI Technologies have been contemplated at the federal level and are advancing at the state level. For example, the California Privacy Protection Agency has finalized regulations under the CCPA regarding the use of automated decision-making. The state of California also enacted numerous laws that further regulate use of AI Technologies and provide consumers with additional protections around companies' use of AI Technologies, such as requiring companies to disclose certain uses of generative AI. Other states have also passed AI-focused legislation, such as Colorado's Artificial Intelligence Act, which requires developers and deployers of "high-risk" AI systems to implement certain safeguards against algorithmic discrimination, and Utah's Artificial Intelligence Policy Act, which establishes disclosure requirements and accountability measures for the use of generative AI in certain consumer interactions. Such additional laws may impact our ability to develop, use, and commercialize AI Technologies in the future. It is possible that further new laws, regulations, and executive orders will be adopted in the United States and in other non-U.S. jurisdictions in which we may in the future do business, or that existing laws and regulations, including competition and antitrust laws, may be interpreted in ways that would limit our ability to use AI Technologies for our business, or require us to change the way we use AI Technologies in a manner that negatively affects the performance of our system and business and the way in which we use AI Technologies. We may need to expend resources to adjust our system in certain jurisdictions if the laws, regulations, or decisions are not consistent across jurisdictions. Further, the cost to comply with such laws, regulations, or decisions, and/or guidance interpreting existing laws, could be significant and would increase our operating expenses (such as by imposing additional reporting obligations regarding our use of AI Technologies). Such an increase in operating expenses, as well as any actual or perceived failure to comply with such laws and regulations, could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 2Discovery of alternative technologies or other personalized spinal implant technologies could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
If medical research were to lead to the discovery of alternative technologies or devices that address the same indications as the aprevo Technology Platform in a way that is or is perceived to be more accurate, reliable, cost-effective, or otherwise improved relative to the aprevo Technology Platform, for example, through alternative analysis and surgical planning software or other personalized implant technologies or devices, the demand for our products could decrease significantly, leading to a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 3Interim, "top-line," or preliminary data from clinical studies or trials that we announce or publish from time to time may change as more patient data become available and are subject to audit and verification procedures that could result in material changes in the final data.
From time to time, we may publicly disclose interim, top-line, or preliminary data from clinical studies or trials concerning or involving our products, which is based on a preliminary analysis of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular study or trial or additional data collected at a later time. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations, and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to evaluate all data fully and carefully. As a result, the interim, top-line, or preliminary results that we report may differ from future results of the same study or trial, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Interim, top-line, or preliminary data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the interim, top-line, or preliminary data that we previously announced. As a result, interim, and top-line, preliminary data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. Adverse differences between interim data and final data could significantly harm our business prospects. Further, disclosure of interim data by us or by our competitors could result in volatility in our share price. Further, others, including regulatory agencies or other bodies, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions, or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular study, or the approvability or potential for commercialization of the particular medical device. In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is based on what is typically extensive information, and others may not agree with what we determine is material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure. The interim, top-line, or preliminary data that we report may differ from final results, and regulatory authorities and other bodies may disagree with the conclusions reached, which may harm our ability to obtain marketing authorization for, and commercialize, our future products, which could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 4Our business and growth strategy depend in part on our ability to broadly commercialize the aprevo Technology Platform for cervical spine fusion surgeries. If we are unable to do so, our future growth could be limited and our business could be harmed.
As part of our overall growth strategy, we are developing the aprevo Technology Platform for use in cervical spine fusion surgeries. In November 2024, we received FDA 510(k) clearance for our aprevo Technology Platform for cervical spine fusion surgery and on July 14, 2025, the first in-human personalized cervical procedure using our aprevo Technology Platform was completed. In December 2025, we received FDA 510(k) clearance for our cervical plating system. We have generated limited early sales of aprevo interbody implants for use in cervical spine surgery following a commercial launch in December 2025 and expect to more broadly commercialize our cervical platform, including with the anticipated commercial launch of our corra cervical plating system, in 2026. The successful commercialization of the aprevo Technology Platform for cervical spine fusion surgeries will depend on a number of circumstances, and is subject to the risks and uncertainties identified in these "Risk Factors." One or more of these factors, many of which are beyond our control, could impair the successful commercialization of the aprevo Technology Platform for use in cervical spine fusion surgeries. Failure to successfully commercialize our cervical platform could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects and could significantly impact our growth and growth strategy.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 5If we are unable to successfully develop new products and effectively manage their introduction or improve our existing products, our business may be adversely affected.
We must successfully manage introductions of new or enhanced medical devices or new or enhanced features of the aprevo Technology Platform, including those related to any future indications. Introductions of new medical devices or features of the aprevo Technology Platform could also adversely impact the sales of our existing medical devices. For instance, the introduction or announcement of new aprevo interbody implants or an advanced aprevo Technology Platform could cause sales channel conflicts to arise or shorten the life cycle of our existing aprevo interbody implants or reduce demand for them, potentially reducing any benefits of successful new product or enhancement introductions and leading to challenges in managing the portfolio of existing aprevo Technology Platform products. In addition, new or enhanced medical devices may have higher manufacturing, marketing, information technology, or other costs than our existing medical devices, or lower pricing, market acceptance or adoption, which could negatively impact our gross margins and operating results. As the technological complexity of the aprevo Technology Platform products increases, the infrastructure to support them, such as our design and manufacturing processes and technical support for our products, may also become more complex. Accordingly, if we fail to effectively manage introductions of new or advanced medical devices, our business may be adversely affected.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 6Our business and growth strategy depend on our ability to maintain and expand our aprevo Personalized Spine Provider program. If we are unable to do so, our future growth would be limited, and our business would be harmed.
Our achievement of rapid organic adoption of the aprevo Technology Platform among hospitals, ambulatory surgical centers and surgeons is dependent upon our continued ability to maintain and grow our network of established surgeons. If we are unable to maintain and grow our network of surgeons who have interest in the aprevo Technology Platform, it would harm our business and ability to grow and would adversely affect our results of operations. Our ability to develop and maintain satisfactory relationships with these providers also may be negatively impacted by other factors not associated with us, such as changes in Medicare and/or Medicaid reimbursement levels and other pressures on surgeons and consolidation activity among hospitals, physician groups, and healthcare providers. The failure to maintain or to secure new surgeons with interest in the aprevo Technology Platform may result in a loss of or inability to grow our customer and surgeon base, higher costs, healthcare provider network disruptions, less-attractive service for our customers, and/or difficulty in meeting regulatory or accreditation requirements, any of which could harm our business.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 7If we are unable to meet customer demands for new technology, or if the technologies we introduce are viewed less favorably than our competitors' products, our results of operations and future prospects may be negatively affected.
For us to remain competitive, it is essential to be at the forefront of new technologies, including in the rapidly evolving area of AI. If we are unable to meet customer demands for new technology, or if the technologies we introduce are viewed less favorably than our competitors' products, our results of operations and future prospects may be negatively affected. To meet our customers' needs in these areas, we must continuously work on our product design, develop our algorithms, and invest in and develop new technologies to improve the aprevo Technology Platform. We will also need to anticipate customer and surgeon demand with respect to these technologies and which technological advances are most desirable in personalized surgery plans and aprevo interbody implants and any future additional products that we may market. This need will result in requiring our employees to continue learning and adapting to new technologies, and us competing for highly skilled talent in a competitive market. Our operating results depend to a significant extent on our ability to anticipate and adapt to technological changes in the spinal surgery and implant market, maintain and protect innovation, maintain a strong product pipeline, and reduce or maintain low costs for producing high-quality surgical plan and spinal implant products. Any inability to do so could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and prospects.
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