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BioVie (BIVI) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q1, 2025
Source: the company's latest filing for the period ended Mar 31, 2025, filed May 12, 2025
Risk Change Over Time
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1You may experience future dilution as a result of future equity offerings or if we issue shares subject to options, warrants, stock awards or other arrangements.
As of March 31, 2025, our Articles of Incorporation, as amended, authorize the issuance of 800,000,000 shares of Common Stock, and we had 18,545,735 shares of Common Stock issued and 18,517,376 issued and outstanding. Accordingly, we may issue up to an additional 781,454,265 shares of Common Stock. The future issuance of Common Stock may result in substantial dilution in the percentage of our Common Stock held by our then existing stockholders. We may value any Common Stock in the future on an arbitrary basis. The issuance of Common Stock for future services or acquisitions or other corporate actions may have the effect of diluting the value of the shares held by our investors, might have an adverse effect on any trading market for our Common Stock and could impair our ability to raise capital in the future through the sale of equity securities. In order to raise additional capital, we may in the future offer additional shares of our Common Stock or other securities convertible into or exchangeable for our Common Stock. We may sell shares or other securities in offerings at a price per share that is less than the current market price of our securities, and investors purchasing shares or other securities in the future could have rights superior to existing stockholders. The sale of additional shares of our Common Stock or other securities convertible into or exchangeable for our Common Stock would dilute all of our stockholders, and if such sales of convertible securities into or exchangeable into our Common Stock occur at a deemed issuance price that is lower than the current exercise price of our outstanding warrants sold to Acuitas Group Holdings, LLC ("Acuitas") in August 2022, the exercise price for those warrants would adjust downward to the deemed issuance price pursuant to price adjustment protection contained within those warrants. As of March 31, 2025, there were warrants outstanding to purchase an aggregate of 9,600,564 shares of our Common Stock at exercise prices ranging from $1.37 to $125.00 per share and 887,129 shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding options at exercise prices ranging from $1.90 to $420.90 per share and restricted stock units totaling 109,039. We may also grant additional options, warrants or equity awards. To the extent such shares are issued, the interest of holders of our Common Stock will be diluted. Moreover, we are obligated to issue shares of our Common Stock upon achievement of certain clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones with respect to certain of our drug candidates (i.e., bezisterim (NE3107), NE3291, NE3413, and NE3789) pursuant to the asset purchase agreement, dated April 27, 2021, by and among the Company, NeurMedix and Acuitas, as amended on May 9, 2021. The achievement of these milestones could result in the issuance of up to 1.8 million shares of our Common Stock, further diluting the interest of holders of our Common Stock.
Risk Highlights Q1, 2025
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 49
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 1Successful development of biopharmaceuticals is highly uncertain and is dependent on numerous factors, many of which are beyond our control.
Product candidates that appear promising in the early phases of development may fail to reach the market for several reasons. Pre-clinical study results may show the product candidate to be less effective than desired (e.g., the study failed to meet its primary endpoints) or to have harmful or problematic side effects. Product candidates may fail to receive the necessary regulatory approvals or may be delayed in receiving such approvals. Among other things, such delays may be caused by slow enrollment in clinical studies; length of time to achieve study endpoints; additional time requirements for data analysis; IND and later new drug application preparation; discussions with the FDA; an FDA request for additional pre-clinical or clinical data; unexpected safety or manufacturing issues; manufacturing costs; pricing or reimbursement issues; clinical sites deviating from the trial protocol, committing scientific misconduct, or other violations of regulatory requirements - which can render data from those sites unusable in support of regulatory approval; or other factors that make the product not economical. Proprietary rights of others and their competing products and technologies may also prevent the product from being commercialized. Success in pre-clinical and early clinical studies does not ensure that large-scale clinical studies will be successful. Clinical results are frequently susceptible to varying interpretations that may delay, limit or prevent regulatory approvals. The length of time necessary to complete clinical studies and to submit an application for marketing approval for a final decision by a regulatory authority varies significantly from one product to the next, and may be difficult to predict. There can be no assurance that any of our products will develop successfully, and the failure to develop our products will have a materially adverse effect on our business and will cause you to lose all of your investment.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 2We have limited experience in drug development and may not be able to successfully develop any drugs, which would cause us to cease operations.
We have never successfully developed a new drug and brought it to market. Our management and clinical teams have experience in drug development but they may not be able to successfully develop any drugs. Our ability to achieve revenues and profitability in our business will depend on, among other things, our ability to develop products internally or to obtain rights to them from others on favorable terms; complete laboratory testing and human studies; obtain and maintain necessary intellectual property rights to our products; successfully complete regulatory review to obtain requisite governmental agency approvals; enter into arrangements with third parties to manufacture our products on our behalf; and enter into arrangements with third parties to provide sales and marketing functions. If we are unable to achieve these objectives we will be forced to cease operations and you will lose all of your investment.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 3Development of pharmaceutical products is a time-consuming process, subject to a number of risks, many of which are outside of our control. Consequently, we can provide no assurance that our product candidates will obtain regulatory approval, and if we are unsuccessful or fail to timely develop new drugs, we could be forced to discontinue our operations.
Development and extensive testing will be required to determine the technical feasibility and commercial viability of BIV201 and bezisterim (NE3107). Our success will depend on our ability to achieve scientific and technological advances and to translate such advances into reliable, commercially competitive drugs on a timely basis. Drugs that we may develop are not likely to be commercially available, at a minimum, for several years, if ever. Our drug product candidate, BIV201 (continuous infusion terlipressin), was cleared by the FDA to undergo testing in a mid-stage (Phase 2b) clinical trial for the treatment of refractory ascites due to cirrhosis. On June 24, 2021, we announced that the first patient has been enrolled in this study. In March 2023, the open-label trial was stopped after 15 of the planned 30 patients were enrolled, and an evaluation of those completed patients assessed. Encouraging data from these patients appeared to show that treatment with BIV201 plus SOC resulted in a reduction in ascites fluid accumulation during treatment versus pre-treatment. In June 2023, the Company requested and subsequently received guidance from the FDA regarding the design and endpoints for definitive clinical testing of BIV201 for the treatment of ascites due to chronic liver cirrhosis. Over three years since the initial enrollment of this clinical trial, the Company is continuing to finalize protocol designs for the Phase 3 study of BIV201 for the treatment of ascites due to chronic liver cirrhosis. The proposed development schedules for our product candidates may be affected by a variety of factors, including technological difficulties, proprietary technology of others, and changes in government regulation, many of which will not be within our control. In June 2021, FDA approved the drug aducanumab for treatment of Alzheimer's despite a strong recommendation against approval from an FDA advisory committee. That FDA approval has generated significant medical and political controversy, including a Congressional investigation, announced on June 25, 2021, into the basis for FDA's approval decision. That investigation, other potential investigations, and negative publicity of FDA's approval decision could adversely impact the agency's oversight of our clinical development program, how the agency may view and act upon any NDA we may file for bezisterim (NE3107), and the commercial viability of bezisterim (NE3107) if it were to be approved and marketed. Any delay or further delay in the development, introduction or marketing of our product candidates could result either in such drugs being marketed at a time when their cost and performance characteristics would not be competitive in the marketplace or in the shortening of their commercial lives. In light of the long-term nature of our projects and other risk factors described elsewhere in this document, we may not be able to successfully complete the development or marketing of any drugs, which could cause us to cease operations. From time to time, the FDA may have feedback on our clinical trial designs, including for example certain of our endpoints and outcome measures. As a result, we may consider revisions to our protocols which may delay progress in implementing our trials. We may fail to successfully develop and commercialize our product candidate(s) if it is found to be unsafe or ineffective in clinical trials; does not receive necessary approval from the FDA or foreign regulatory agencies; fails to conform to a changing standard of care for the disease it seeks to treat; or is less effective or more expensive than current or alternative treatment methods. Drug development failure can occur at any stage of clinical trials and as a result of many factors, there can be no assurance that we or our collaborators will reach our anticipated clinical targets. Even if the trials are successfully completed, clinical data are often susceptible to varying interpretations and analyses, and we cannot guarantee that the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities will interpret the results as we do, and more trials could be required before we submit our product candidates for approval. We cannot guarantee that the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities will view our product candidates as having efficacy even if positive results are observed in clinical trials. In some instances, there can be significant variability in safety or efficacy results between different clinical trials of the same product candidate due to numerous factors, including changes in trial procedures set forth in protocols, differences in the size and type of the patient populations, changes in and adherence to the clinical trial protocols, and the rate of dropout among clinical trial participants. If the results of our ongoing or future clinical trials are inconclusive with respect to the efficacy of our product candidates, if we do not meet the clinical endpoints with statistical and clinically meaningful significance, or if there are safety concerns associated with our product candidates, we may be delayed in obtaining marketing approval, if at all. Additionally, any safety concerns observed in any one of our clinical trials in our targeted indications could limit the prospects for regulatory approval of our product candidates in those and other indications. We also do not know what the long-term effects of exposure to our product candidates will be. Furthermore, our product candidates may be used in combination with other treatments and there can be no assurance that such use will not lead to unique or unexpected safety issues. Failure to complete clinical trials or to prove that our product candidates are safe and effective would have a material adverse effect on our ability to generate revenue and could require us to reduce the scope of or discontinue our operations, which could cause you to lose all of your investment.
- Innovation / R&D - Risk 4We may expend our limited resources to pursue a particular drug candidate or indication and fail to capitalize on drug candidates or indications that may be more profitable or for which there is a greater likelihood of success.
Because we have limited human capital and financial resources, we focus on research programs and drug candidates that we identify for specific indications. As a result, we may forego or delay pursuit of opportunities with other drug candidates or for other indications that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial drugs or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future research and development programs and drug candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable drugs. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a particular drug candidate, we may relinquish valuable rights to that drug candidate through collaboration, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights to such drug candidate. At any time and for any reason, we may determine that one or more of our discovery programs or preclinical or clinical drug candidates or programs does not have sufficient potential to warrant the allocation of resources toward such program or drug candidate. Accordingly, we may choose not to develop a potential drug candidate or elect to suspend, deprioritize or terminate one or more of our discovery programs or preclinical or clinical drug candidates or programs. For example, BIV201 has received Orphan Drug designation for HRS. On June 23, 2021, we announced that FDA has provided guidance on our planned Phase 3 clinical trial of BIV201 in (HRS-AKI) and have since reached agreement on the key elements of the trial design. Thereafter, we deprioritized HRS-AKI program to focus on bezisterim (NE3107). When we suspend, deprioritize or terminate a program or drug candidate in which we have invested significant resources, we will have expended resources on a program that will not provide a full return on our investment and may have missed the opportunity to have allocated those resources to potentially more productive uses, including existing or future programs or drug candidates.
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