BioAge Labs, Inc. (BIOA) Risk Analysis

We do not have a sales or marketing infrastructure and have no experience in the sales, marketing or distribution of any current or future product candidates. To achieve commercial success for any approved product, we must either develop a sales and marketing organization or outsource these functions to third parties. In the future and if any of our product candidates are approved, we may choose to build a focused sales, marketing and commercial support infrastructure to sell, or participate in sales activities with collaborators for some of our current or future product candidates. There are risks involved with both establishing our own commercial capabilities and entering into arrangements with third parties to perform these services. For example, factors that may inhibit our efforts to commercialize any approved product candidates include: - the inability to recruit and retain adequate numbers of effective sales, marketing, coverage or reimbursement, customer service, medical affairs and other support personnel;- the inability of sales personnel to obtain access to or persuade adequate numbers of decision makers to utilize any future approved product candidates;- the inability of reimbursement professionals to negotiate arrangements for formulary access, reimbursement and other acceptance by payors;- the inability to price any of our current or future product candidates at a sufficient price point to ensure an adequate and attractive level of profitability;- restricted or closed distribution channels that make it difficult to distribute our current or future product candidates to segments of the patient population;- the lack of complementary product candidates to be offered by sales personnel, which may put us at a competitive disadvantage relative to companies with more extensive product candidate lines; and - unforeseen costs and expenses associated with creating an independent commercialization organization. If the commercial launch of a product candidate, if approved, for which we recruit a sales force and establish marketing and other commercialization capabilities is delayed or does not occur for any reason, we would have prematurely or unnecessarily incurred these commercialization expenses. This may be costly, and our investment would be lost if we cannot retain or reposition our commercialization personnel. If we enter into arrangements with third parties to perform sales, marketing, commercial support and distribution services, our sales revenue or the profitability of sales revenue may be lower than if we were to do so ourselves. In addition, we may not be successful in entering into arrangements with third parties to commercialize our product candidates or may be unable to do so on terms that are favorable to us. We may have little control over such third parties, and any of them may fail to devote the necessary resources and attention to sell and market our product candidates effectively. If we do not establish commercialization capabilities successfully, either on our own or in collaboration with third parties, we will not be successful in commercializing our product candidates, if approved.

Our future success is highly dependent on our ability to identify and develop, obtain regulatory approval for, and then successfully commercialize our lead product candidate, BGE-102, and any future product candidates, which may never occur. We are early in our development efforts with respect to BGE-102, which is a brain-penetrant structurally novel small molecule inhibitor of NLRP3 that has a novel binding site. We are also developing APJ agonists, which are in earlier stages of development. We currently have no products that are approved for sale in any jurisdiction. There can be no assurance that BGE-102 or any future product candidates we develop will achieve success in their respective clinical trials or obtain regulatory approval. We may also become dependent on product candidates that we may develop or acquire in the future. Given our early stage of development, it may be several years, if at all, before we have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of a product candidate sufficient to warrant approval for commercialization. Our ability to generate product revenue, which we do not expect will occur for many years, if ever, will be heavily dependent on the successful development and eventual commercialization of BGE-102, our APJ programs and any future product candidates. The success of BGE-102 and any future product candidates will be dependent on several factors, including the following: - successful and timely completion of preclinical studies and clinical trials demonstrating attractive, competitive target product profiles for our product candidates;- clearance of INDs by the FDA or other similar clinical trial applications from other regulatory authorities for our future clinical trials for our pipeline product candidates;- timely and successful enrollment of patients in, and completion of, clinical trials with favorable results;- demonstration of safety, efficacy and acceptable risk-benefit profiles of our product candidates to the satisfaction of the FDA and other comparable foreign regulatory agencies;- receipt of regulatory approvals from applicable regulatory authorities, if granted, including the completion of any required post-marketing studies or trials and available funding to perform any post-marketing commitments;- raising additional funds necessary to complete clinical development of and commercialize our current or any future product candidates;- obtaining, protecting and enforcing our patent, trade secret and other intellectual property and regulatory exclusivity for our current and future product candidates;- making arrangements with third-party manufacturers, or establishing manufacturing capabilities, for both clinical and commercial supplies of our current or future product candidates and ensuring a resilient, effective supply chain that produces supply that outpaces demand;- developing and implementing marketing and reimbursement strategies, as well as adequate demand forecasts for supply and sales planning;- establishing sales, marketing and distribution capabilities and launching commercial sales of our products, if and when approved, whether alone or in collaboration with others in a market where promotional sales approaches are rapidly moving to digital platforms;- demonstration of product characteristics attractive to physicians, patients, advocates, payors and caregivers;- acceptance of our products, if and when approved, by patients, the medical community and third-party payors underpinned by adequate health economic data and a meaningful value proposition;- effectively competing with other therapies, including those that have not yet entered the market;- obtaining and maintaining third-party payor coverage and adequate reimbursement in both public and private payor spaces, given the significant number of obese patients in the United States who may benefit from our product candidates;- obtaining appropriate support from patient advocacy organizations;- addressing any delays in our clinical trials resulting from any major natural disasters, health pandemics or significant political events; and - maintaining a continued acceptable safety profile of the products following approval. Many of these factors are beyond our control, and it is possible that none of our product candidates will ever obtain regulatory approval even if we expend substantial time and resources seeking such approval. If we do not achieve one or more of these factors in a timely manner or at all, we could experience significant delays or an inability to successfully commercialize our product candidates, which would materially harm our business. For example, our business could be harmed if clinical trial results for future product candidates show unexpected adverse events or a lack of efficacy in the indications we intend to treat or do not meet the clinical endpoints, or if we experience other regulatory or developmental issues. For instance, in December 2024, we announced the discontinuation of our Phase 2 clinical trial of our former lead product candidate azelaprag following observation of liver transaminitis without clinically significant symptoms in some subjects receiving azelaprag.

Because we have limited resources and access to capital to fund our operations, we must decide which product candidates to pursue and the amount of resources to allocate to each. Our decisions concerning the allocation of research, collaboration, management, and financial resources toward particular product candidates or therapeutic areas may not lead to the development of viable commercial products and may divert resources away from better opportunities. Similarly, any decisions to delay, terminate, or collaborate with third parties in respect of certain product development programs may also prove not to be optimal and could cause us to miss valuable opportunities. If we make incorrect determinations regarding the market potential of any future product candidates or misread trends in the biopharmaceutical industry, our business, financial condition, and results of operations would be materially adversely affected.

In August 2025, we announced that the first patient was dosed in our Phase 1 SAD / MAD clinical trial for BGE-102, and in April 2026 we reported results from the full Phase 1 SAD / MAD trial. It is impossible to predict when or if BGE-102 or any future product candidates will prove effective and safe in humans or will receive regulatory approval. To obtain the requisite regulatory approvals to commercialize any product candidate, we must demonstrate through extensive preclinical studies and lengthy, complex and expensive clinical trials that our product candidates are safe and effective in humans. Clinical testing can take many years to complete, and its outcome is inherently uncertain. Failure can occur at any time during the clinical trial process. The results of preclinical studies and early clinical trials of BGE-102 or any future product candidates, or a competitor's product candidate in the same class, may not be predictive of the results of later-stage clinical trials. For example, despite encouraging results from our Phase 1b bed rest atrophy clinical trial and the lack of any negative safety signals in other Phase 1 clinical trials of azelaprag, in January 2025, we announced the discontinuation of the azelaprag program following observation of liver transaminitis without clinically significant symptoms in some subjects receiving azelaprag in our Phase 2 clinical trial. Interim, topline or preliminary results of a clinical trial are not necessarily indicative of final results. We may be unable to establish benefit on clinical endpoints that applicable regulatory authorities would consider clinically meaningful, and a clinical trial can fail at any stage of testing. Differences in trial design between early-stage clinical trials and later-stage clinical trials make it difficult to extrapolate the results of earlier clinical trials to later clinical trials. Moreover, clinical data are often susceptible to varying interpretations and analyses, and many companies that have believed their product candidates performed satisfactorily in clinical trials have nonetheless failed to obtain regulatory approval of their products. A number of companies in the biopharmaceutical industry have suffered significant setbacks in advanced clinical trials due to lack of efficacy or to unfavorable safety profiles, notwithstanding promising results in earlier trials. There is typically a high rate of failure of product candidates proceeding through clinical trials, particularly in the earlier stages of development. Most product candidates that commence clinical trials are never approved as products, and there can be no assurance that any of our future clinical trials will ultimately be successful or support clinical development of any future product candidates. We may experience delays in initiating or completing clinical trials of our future product candidates. We also may experience unforeseen events during, or as a result of, any future clinical trials that we conduct that could delay or prevent our ability to receive regulatory approval or commercialize BGE-102 or any future product candidates, including: - regulators, institutional review boards (IRBs) or ethics committees may not authorize us or our investigators to commence a clinical trial or conduct a clinical trial at a prospective trial site, or may halt or suspend an ongoing clinical trial;- we may experience delays in reaching or fail to reach agreement on acceptable terms with prospective trial sites and prospective contract research organizations (CROs) the terms of which can be subject to extensive negotiation and may vary significantly among different CROs and trial sites;- clinical trial sites deviating from the trial protocol or dropping out of a trial;- clinical trials of any product candidates may fail to show safety or efficacy, produce negative or inconclusive results and we may decide, or regulators may require us, to conduct additional preclinical studies or clinical trials or we may decide to abandon product development programs;- failure of our current or future product candidates in clinical trials to demonstrate important functional or patient-reported outcomes;- the number of subjects required for clinical trials of any product candidates may be larger than we anticipate, enrollment in these clinical trials may be slower than we anticipate or subjects may drop out of these clinical trials or fail to return for post-treatment follow-up at a higher rate than we anticipate;- our third-party contractors may fail to comply with regulatory requirements or meet their contractual obligations to us in a timely manner, or at all, or may deviate from the clinical trial protocol or drop out of the trial, which may require that we add new clinical trial sites or investigators;- we may elect, or regulators, IRBs, or ethics committees may require, that we or our investigators, suspend or terminate clinical research or trials for various reasons, including noncompliance with regulatory requirements or a finding that the participants in our trials are being exposed to unacceptable health risks;- the cost of clinical trials of BGE-102 or any future product candidates may be greater than we anticipate, and we may not have sufficient funds to complete such trials;- the quality of BGE-102 or any future product candidates or other materials necessary to conduct clinical trials of BGE-102 or any future product candidates may be inadequate to initiate or complete a given clinical trial;- our inability to manufacture sufficient quantities of BGE-102 or any future product candidates for use in clinical trials;- our inability to meet drug specifications suitable for use in clinical trials and commercial applications;- reports from clinical testing of other therapies may raise safety or efficacy concerns about BGE-102 or any future product candidates;- the receipt of feedback from regulatory authorities that requires us to modify the design of our clinical trials;- our failure to establish an appropriate safety profile for a product candidate based on clinical or preclinical data for such product candidate as well as data emerging from other molecules in the same class as BGE-102 or any future product candidates; and - the FDA or other regulatory authorities may require us to submit additional data such as long-term toxicology studies or impose other requirements before permitting us to initiate a clinical trial. We could also encounter additional delays if a future clinical trial is suspended or terminated by us, the IRBs of the institutions in which such trials are being conducted, or the FDA or other regulatory authorities, or if a clinical trial is recommended for suspension or termination by the Data Safety Monitoring Board for such trial. A suspension or termination may be imposed due to a number of factors, including failure to conduct the clinical trial in accordance with regulatory requirements, including the FDA's Good Clinical Practice (GCP) regulations, or our clinical protocols, inspection of the clinical trial operations or trial site by the FDA or other regulatory authorities resulting in the imposition of a clinical hold, unforeseen safety issues or adverse side effects, failure to demonstrate a benefit from using a product or treatment, failure to establish or achieve clinically meaningful trial endpoints, changes in governmental regulations or administrative actions or lack of adequate funding to continue the clinical trial. Clinical studies may also be delayed or terminated as a result of ambiguous or negative interim results. Many of the factors that cause, or lead to, a delay in the commencement or completion of clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of BGE-102 or any future product candidates. Further, the FDA or other regulatory authorities may disagree with our clinical trial design and our interpretation of data from clinical trials, or may change the requirements for approval even after they have reviewed and commented on the design for our clinical trials. We cannot predict with any certainty the schedule for commencement and completion of future clinical trials. Further, conducting clinical trials in foreign countries, as we have done and may do in the future for our product candidates, presents additional risks that may delay completion of our clinical trials. These risks include the failure of enrolled patients in foreign countries to adhere to clinical protocol as a result of differences in healthcare services or cultural customs, managing additional administrative burdens associated with foreign regulatory schemes, as well as political and economic risks relevant to such foreign countries. If we are required to conduct additional clinical trials or other testing of our current or future product candidates beyond those that we currently contemplate, if we are unable to successfully complete clinical trials of our current or future product candidates or other testing in a timely manner, if the results of these trials or tests are not positive or are only modestly positive or if there are safety concerns, we may incur unplanned costs, be delayed in seeking and obtaining regulatory approval, if we receive such approval at all, receive more limited or restrictive regulatory approval, be subject to additional post-marketing testing requirements or have the drug removed from the market after obtaining regulatory approval. Additionally, if the results of our clinical trials are inconclusive or if there are safety concerns or serious adverse events associated with our product candidates, we may: - be delayed in obtaining regulatory approval, if at all;- obtain approval for indications or patient populations that are not as broad as intended or desired or may have restricted duration expectations or guidance;- obtain approval with labeling that includes significant use or distribution restrictions or safety warnings;- be subject to additional post-marketing testing requirements;- be required to perform additional clinical trials to support approval or be subject to additional post- marketing testing requirements;- have regulatory authorities withdraw, or suspend, their approval of the drug or impose restrictions on its distribution in the form of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS);- be subject to the addition of labeling statements, such as warnings or contraindications;- be sued; or - experience damage to our reputation. Our drug development costs will also increase if we experience delays in testing or obtaining regulatory approvals. Also, delays in obtaining regulatory approval may increase commercialization costs if the competitive environment becomes more intense prior to market entry. We do not know whether any of our preclinical studies or clinical trials will begin as planned, need to be restructured or be completed on schedule, if at all. Moreover, principal investigators for our clinical trials may serve as scientific advisors or consultants to us from time to time and receive compensation in connection with such services. Under certain circumstances, we may be required to report some of these relationships to the FDA or other regulatory authorities. The FDA or other regulatory authorities may conclude that a financial relationship between us and a principal investigator has created a conflict of interest or otherwise affected interpretation of the study. The FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authority may therefore question the integrity of the data generated at the applicable clinical trial site and the utility of the clinical trial itself may be jeopardized. This could result in a delay in approval, or rejection, of our marketing applications by the FDA or other regulatory authority, as the case may be, and may ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of one or more of our product candidates. In addition, many of the factors that cause, or lead to, termination or suspension of, or a delay in the commencement or completion of, clinical trials may also ultimately lead to the denial of regulatory approval of a product candidate. We may make formulation or manufacturing changes to our product candidates, in which case we may need to conduct additional preclinical studies to bridge our modified product candidates to earlier versions. If we experience delays in the commencement or completion of our clinical trials, or if we terminate a clinical trial prior to completion, the commercial prospects of any future product candidates could be negatively impacted, and our ability to generate revenues from our current or future product candidates may be delayed or eliminated entirely.

We may develop other product candidates for use in combination with other therapies in the future. The development of product candidates for use in combination with another product may present challenges that are not faced for single agent product candidates. For example, any future clinical trial for our product candidates in combination with other therapies that is designed to evaluate efficacy could show that our product candidate does not sufficiently contribute to the observed effects of individuals who participate in these trials. Even if any future product candidates were to receive regulatory approval or be commercialized for use in combination with other existing therapies, we would continue to be subject to the risks that the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities could revoke approval of the therapy used in combination with any of our product candidates, or safety, efficacy, manufacturing or supply issues could arise with these existing therapies. In addition, it is possible that existing therapies with which any future product candidates are approved for use could themselves fall out of favor or be relegated to later lines of treatment. This could result in the FDA or similar foreign regulatory authorities requiring us to conduct additional clinical trials, the need to identify other combination therapies for our product candidates or our own products being removed from the market or being less successful commercially. If the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities do not approve or withdraw their approval of these other therapies, or if safety, efficacy, commercial adoption, manufacturing or supply issues arise with the therapies we choose to evaluate in combination with any future product candidates, we may be unable to obtain approval of or successfully market any one or all of the future product candidates we may develop. Additionally, if the third-party providers of therapies or therapies in development used in combination with any future product candidates are unable to produce sufficient quantities for clinical trials or for commercialization of any future product candidates, or if the cost of combination therapies are prohibitive, our development and commercialization efforts would be impaired, which would have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.

From time to time, we may publicly disclose preliminary, topline or interim data from our clinical trials, such as preliminary, topline or interim data analysis from our ongoing and planned clinical trials of BGE-102. For example, we announced interim data from our Phase 1 SAD / MAD study of BGE-102 in December 2025 and January 2026. These data and related findings and conclusions may only reflect certain endpoints rather than all endpoints and are subject to change. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the preliminary or topline results that we report may differ from future results of the same studies, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Preliminary or topline data also remain subject to review and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the preliminary or topline data we previously published. As a result, preliminary and topline data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. In addition, we may report preliminary data or interim analyses of the clinical trials we may conduct and complete, which are subject to the risk that one or more of the clinical outcomes may materially change as patient enrollment continues and more patient data become available. Adverse changes between preliminary or interim data and final data could significantly harm our business and prospects. Further, additional disclosure of preliminary or interim data by us including, for example, preliminary or interim data that becomes available to us from our ongoing and planned clinical trials of BGE-102 or other future product candidates or by our competitors in the future could result in volatility in the price of our common stock. Further, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is typically selected from a more extensive amount of available information. You or others may not agree with what we determine is the material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure, and any information we determine not to disclose may ultimately be deemed significant with respect to future decisions, conclusions, views, activities or otherwise regarding a particular product, product candidate or our business. If the preliminary, topline or interim data that we report differ from later, final or actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize, our product candidates may be harmed, which could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.

We use our longitudinal human aging platform to identify and prioritize potential drug targets, to assess the likelihood that we can develop a product candidate that interacts with the target to elicit the desired therapeutic effect, and to transition these insights efficiently into well supported therapeutic candidates. While we believe our platform will increase the likelihood of producing additional product candidates that provide meaningful clinical benefit, past success in identifying potential product candidates does not assure future success for our internal drug discovery programs. Our longitudinal human aging platform is novel, and we may not succeed in applying our platform to identify additional drug targets or transition these targets into promising future product candidates. We similarly cannot provide any assurance that, even if we do successfully identify additional targets, we will be able to successfully develop future product candidates and advance any such future product candidates into and through clinical development. Therefore, we are unable to predict the time and cost associated with the identification and development of any future product candidate or whether the application of our platform will result in the identification, development and ultimately regulatory approval of any future product candidates. Efforts through our platform to identify, discover, acquire or in-license, and ultimately develop, product candidates require substantial technical, financial and human resources, whether or not any such future product candidates are ultimately identified. Our efforts may initially show promise in identifying potential product candidates, yet fail to yield product candidates for clinical development or regulatory approval for many reasons, including the following: - the methodology used may not be successful in identifying any future potential product candidates;- competitors may develop alternatives that render any product candidates we develop obsolete;- any product candidates we develop may nevertheless be covered by third parties' patents or other exclusive rights;- a product candidate may be shown, in subsequent preclinical or clinical investigations, to have harmful side effects or characteristics that indicate it is unlikely to be effective, or otherwise would not meet applicable regulatory criteria;- a product candidate may not be capable of being produced in commercial quantities at an acceptable cost, or at all; and - a product candidate may not be accepted as safe and effective by physicians, patients, the medical community or third-party payors.