Barings BDC (BBDC) Risk Analysis

At the special meeting of the Company's stockholders to be held in connection with the Sierra Merger and subject to certain determinations required to be made by the Company's board of directors, the Company's stockholders will be asked to approve the Company's ability to issue shares of its common stock at a price below the then-current NAV per share in connection with the Sierra Merger in the event that at the time of such issuance, the Company's then-current NAV per share is greater than the value of the shares of Sierra's common stock being exchanged. Under the Sierra Merger Agreement, the Sierra Exchange Ratio was fixed on September 21, 2021, at the signing of the Sierra Merger Agreement, subject to certain adjustments pursuant to the Sierra Merger Agreement. The Sierra Exchange Ratio was determined taking into account the NAV per share of each of the Company's common stock and Sierra's common stock as of June 30, 2021 and is not subject to adjustment based on changes in the NAV per share of the Company's common stock or Sierra's common stock. In that regard, regardless of the date on which the Sierra Merger is consummated and the resulting date on which the shares of the Company's common stock are issued, the Sierra Exchange Ratio upon which the shares of the Company's common stock will be issued will not change (except for certain customary anti-dilution adjustments). Consequently, if, on the date that the Company's common stock is issued in connection with the Sierra Merger, the per share value of Sierra's common stock were to decrease from its per share value as of June 30, 2021 and the NAV of the Company's common stock were to remain the same, then the Company could be deemed to be issuing shares at a price below its then-current NAV per share. As a result, it is not known at this time whether the Company will be issuing shares of its common stock at a price below the then-current NAV per share to Sierra stockholders in connection with the Sierra Merger. The determination of whether the Company is issuing shares of its common stock at a price below the then-current NAV per share will be made at or around the time of the closing of the Sierra Merger. If the Company were to issue shares of its common stock below its then-current NAV per share in connection with the Sierra Merger, such sales would result in an immediate dilution to the NAV per share of the Company's common stock. This dilution would occur as a result of the issuance of shares at a price below the then-current NAV per share of the Company's common stock and a proportionately greater decrease in the stockholders' interest in the Company's earnings and assets and their voting interest in the Company than the increase in the Company's assets resulting from such issuance. Because the NAV of shares of the Company's common stock at or around the time of the Sierra Merger is not currently known, the actual dilutive effect cannot be predicted.

The Company's stockholders will experience a substantial reduction in their respective percentage ownership interests and effective voting power in respect of the combined company relative to their respective ownership interests in the Company prior to the Sierra Merger. Consequently, the Company's stockholders should expect to exercise less influence over the management and policies of the combined company following the Sierra Merger than they currently exercise over the management and policies of the Company. If the Sierra Merger is consummated, based on the number of shares of the Company's common stock and Sierra's common stock issued and outstanding on September 20, 2021, it is expected that current stockholders of the Company will own approximately 58.7% of the Company's outstanding common stock and former Sierra stockholders will own approximately 41.3% of the Company's outstanding common stock. In addition, both prior to and after completion of the Sierra Merger, subject to certain restrictions in the Sierra Merger Agreement and the approval of the Company's stockholders, the Company may issue additional shares of its common stock (including, subject to certain restrictions under the 1940 Act, at prices below the Company's then-current net asset value ("NAV") per share), all of which would further reduce the percentage ownership of the combined company held by current stockholders. In addition, the issuance or sale by the Company of shares of its common stock at a discount to NAV poses a risk of economic dilution to stockholders.

Based on the number of outstanding shares of Sierra's common stock as of the close of business on September 20, 2021, the Company would issue approximately 46.0 million shares of the Company's common stock pursuant to the Sierra Merger Agreement. Former Sierra stockholders may decide not to hold the shares of the Company's common stock that they receive pursuant to the Sierra Merger Agreement. In addition, the Company's stockholders may decide not to hold their shares of the Company's common stock after completion of the Sierra Merger. In each case, such sales of the Company's common stock could have the effect of depressing the market price for the Company's common stock and may take place promptly following the completion of the Sierra Merger.

The businesses of the Company and Sierra differ in some respects and, accordingly, the results of operations of the combined company and the market price of the Company's common stock after the Sierra Merger may be affected by factors different from those currently affecting the independent results of operations of each of the Company and Sierra. These factors include: - a larger stockholder base;- a different portfolio composition; and - a different capital structure Accordingly, the historical trading prices and financial results of the Company may not be indicative of these matters for the combined company following the Sierra Merger.

Certain conditions to the Company's and Sierra's obligations to complete the Sierra Merger may be waived, in whole or in part, to the extent legally allowed, either unilaterally or by agreement of the Company and Sierra. In the event that any such waiver does not require resolicitation of stockholders, the parties to the Sierra Merger Agreement will have the discretion to complete the Sierra Merger without seeking further stockholder approval. Accordingly, the terms and conditions as set forth in the Sierra Merger Agreement and described herein, including certain protections to the Company and Sierra, may be waived. The conditions requiring the approval of the Company's stockholders and approval of Sierra's stockholders, however, cannot be waived.

We intend to make distributions on a quarterly basis to our stockholders out of assets legally available for distribution. We cannot assure you that we will achieve investment results that will allow us to make a specified level of cash distributions or year-to-year increases in cash distributions. If we declare a dividend and if more stockholders opt to receive cash distributions rather than participate in our dividend reinvestment plan, we may be forced to sell some of our investments in order to make cash dividend payments. In addition, due to the asset coverage and net asset value tests applicable to us as a BDC and under covenants under our financing agreements, we may be limited in our ability to make distributions. Further, if we invest a greater amount of assets in equity securities that do not pay current dividends, it could reduce the amount available for distribution. See "Item 5. - Market for Registrant's Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities - Distribution Policy" of this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of distributions. The above-referenced restrictions on distributions may also inhibit our ability to make required interest payments to holders of our current debt including the August 2025 Notes, the November Notes, the February Notes and the November 2026 Notes (each as defined below under "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Recent Developments" included in Item 7 of Part II of this Annual Report on Form 10-K), and any future debt we may issue, which may cause a default under the terms of the relevant debt agreements. Such a default could materially increase our cost of raising capital, as well as cause us to incur penalties under the terms of our debt agreements.

We cannot assure you that the issuance of preferred stock and/or debt securities would result in a higher yield or return to the holders of our common stock. The issuance of preferred stock and/or debt securities would likely cause the net asset value and market value of our common stock to become more volatile. If the dividend rate on the preferred stock, or the interest rate on the debt securities, were to approach the net rate of return on our investment portfolio, the benefit of leverage to the holders of our common stock would be reduced. If the dividend rate on the preferred stock, or the interest rate on the debt securities, were to exceed the net rate of return on our portfolio, the use of leverage would result in a lower rate of return to the holders of common stock than if we had not issued the preferred stock or debt securities. Any decline in the net asset value of our investment would be borne entirely by the holders of our common stock. Therefore, if the market value of our portfolio were to decline, the leverage would result in a greater decrease in net asset value to the holders of our common stock than if we were not leveraged through the issuance of preferred stock or debt securities. This decline in net asset value would also tend to cause a greater decline in the market price for our common stock. There is also a risk that, in the event of a sharp decline in the value of our net assets, we would be in danger of failing to maintain required asset coverage ratios which may be required by the preferred stock and/or debt securities or of a downgrade in the ratings of the preferred stock and/or debt securities or our current investment income might not be sufficient to meet the dividend requirements on the preferred stock or the interest payments on the debt securities. In order to counteract such an event, we might need to liquidate investments in order to fund redemption of some or all of the preferred stock and/or debt securities. In addition, we would pay (and the holders of our common stock would bear) all costs and expenses relating to the issuance and ongoing maintenance of the preferred stock and/or debt securities. Holders of preferred stock and/or debt securities may have different interests than holders of common stock and may at times have disproportionate influence over our affairs.

The Maryland General Corporation Law and our charter and bylaws contain provisions that may have the effect of discouraging, delaying or making difficult a change in control of our Company or the removal of our incumbent directors. Specifically, the Board has adopted a resolution explicitly subjecting us to the Maryland Business Combination Act under the Maryland General Corporation Law, which, subject to limitations, prohibits certain business combinations between us and an "interested stockholder" (defined generally as any person who beneficially owns 10% or more of the voting power of our outstanding voting stock) or an affiliate thereof for five years after the most recent date on which the stockholder becomes an interested stockholder and thereafter imposes fair price and/or supermajority voting requirements on these combinations. In addition, our charter classifies the Board in three classes serving staggered three-year terms and provides that a director may be removed only for cause by the vote of at least two-thirds of the votes entitled to be cast for the election of directors generally. In addition, our bylaws provide that, subject to the satisfaction of certain procedural and informational requirements by the stockholders requesting the meeting, a special meeting of stockholders will be called by our secretary to act upon any matter that may properly be considered at a meeting of stockholders only upon the written request of the stockholders entitled to cast at least a majority of all the votes entitled to be cast on such matter at the meeting. In addition, subject to the provisions of the 1940 Act, our charter permits the Board, without stockholder action, to authorize the issuance of shares of stock in one or more classes or series, including preferred stock. Subject to compliance with the 1940 Act, the Board may, without stockholder action, amend our charter from time to time to increase or decrease the number of shares of stock of any class or series that we have authority to issue. The existence of these provisions, among others, may have a negative impact on the price of our common stock and may discourage third-party bids for ownership of our company. These provisions may prevent any premiums being offered to you for shares of our common stock.

Any sale of common stock at a price below net asset value would result in an immediate dilution to existing common stockholders. During periods of time in which we have authority from stockholders to issue shares of common stock at a price below net asset value, such shares of common stock could be issued at a price that is substantially below the net asset value per share, and the resulting dilution could be substantial. This dilution would include reduction in the net asset value per share as a result of the issuance of shares at a price below the net asset value per share and a proportionately greater decrease in a stockholder's interest in the earnings and assets of the Company and voting interest in the Company than the increase in the assets, potential earnings and voting interests of the Company resulting from such issuance. In addition, such issuances or sales may adversely affect the price at which our common stock trades. Pursuant to approval granted at an annual meeting of stockholders held on May 20, 2021, we are permitted to issue and sell shares of our common stock at a price below our then-current net asset value per share in one or more offerings, subject to certain limitations and determinations that must be made by the Board (including, without limitation, that the number of shares issued and sold pursuant to such authority does not exceed 30% of our then-outstanding common stock immediately prior to each such offering). Such stockholder approval expires on May 20, 2022.

Sales of substantial amounts of our common stock, or the availability of such common stock for sale, could adversely affect the prevailing market prices for our common stock. If this occurs and continues, it could impair our ability to raise additional capital through the sale of securities should we desire to do so.

Fluctuations in the trading prices of our shares may adversely affect the liquidity of the trading market for our shares and, if we seek to raise capital through future equity financings, our ability to raise such equity capital. The market price and liquidity of the market for our securities may be significantly affected by numerous factors, some of which are beyond our control and may not be directly related to our operating performance. These factors include: - significant volatility in the market price and trading volume of securities of BDCs or other companies in our sector, which are not necessarily related to the operating performance of these companies;- changes in regulatory policies or tax guidelines, particularly with respect to RICs or BDCs ;- inability to obtain certain exemptive relief from the SEC;- loss of RIC tax treatment;- changes in earnings or variations in operating results;- changes in the value of our portfolio of investments;- any shortfall in investment income or net investment income or any increase in losses from levels expected by investors or securities analysts;- conversion features of subscription rights, warrants or convertible debt;- loss of a major funding source;- fluctuations in interest rates;- the operating performance of companies comparable to us;- departure of Barings' or any of its affiliates' key personnel;- proposed, or completed, offerings of our securities, including classes other than our common stock;- global or national credit market changes; and - general economic trends and other external factors. The market for any security is subject to volatility. The loans and securities purchased by us and issued by us are no exception to this fundamental investment truism that prices will fluctuate.

The investments we make in accordance with our investment objective may result in a higher amount of risk than alternative investment options and a higher risk of volatility or loss of principal. Our investments in portfolio companies may be highly speculative, and therefore, an investment in our shares may not be suitable for someone with lower risk tolerance.

Shares of closed-end investment companies, including BDCs, frequently trade at a discount from net asset value, and may trade at premiums that may prove to be unsustainable. This characteristic of closed-end investment companies and BDCs is separate and distinct from the risk that our net asset value per share may decline. We cannot predict whether our common stock will trade at, above or below net asset value. The risk of purchasing shares of a BDC that might trade at a discount or unsustainable premium is more pronounced for investors who wish to sell their shares in a relatively short period of time because, for those investors, realization of a gain or loss on their investments is likely to be more dependent upon changes in premium or discount levels than upon increases or decreases in net asset value per share. As of December 31, 2021, the closing price of our common stock on the NYSE was $11.02 per share, an approximately 3.0% discount to our net asset value per share as of December 31, 2021. In addition, at times when our common stock trades below net asset value, we will generally not be able to issue additional common stock at the market price without first obtaining the approval of our stockholders and our independent directors. We may, however, sell our common stock, or warrants, options or rights to acquire our common stock, at a price below the current net asset value per share of our common stock if our board of directors determines that such sale is in our best interests and the best interests of our stockholders, and our stockholders approve such sale. Any such sale would be dilutive to the net asset value per share of our common stock. In any such case, the price at which our securities are to be issued and sold may not be less than a price that, in the determination of our board of directors, closely approximates the market value of such securities (less any commission or discount). If our common stock trades at a discount to net asset value, this restriction could adversely affect our ability to raise capital. Pursuant to approval granted at an annual meeting of stockholders held on May 20, 2021, we are permitted to issue and sell shares of our common stock at a price below our then-current net asset value per share in one or more offerings, subject to certain limitations and determinations that must be made by the Board (including, without limitation, that the number of shares issued and sold pursuant to such authority does not exceed 30% of our then-outstanding common stock immediately prior to each such offering). Such stockholder approval expires on May 20, 2022.

In the past, following periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities, securities class-action litigation has often been brought against that company. In addition, stockholder activism, which could take many forms or arise in a variety of situations, including making public demands that we consider strategic alternatives, engaging in public campaigns to attempt to influence our corporate governance and/or our management, and commencing proxy contests to attempt to elect the activists' representatives or others to the Board, has increased in the BDC space in recent years. For example, we and certain of our former executive officers have previously been named defendants in a class-action lawsuit asserting claims under Section 10(b) and Section 20(a) of the Exchange Act, and, due to the potential volatility of our stock price and for a variety of other reasons, we may in the future become the target of further securities litigation or stockholder activism. Securities litigation and stockholder activism, including potential proxy contests, may result in substantial costs and divert management's and the Board's attention and resources from our business. Additionally, such securities litigation and stockholder activism could give rise to perceived uncertainties as to our future, adversely affect our relationships with service providers and make it more difficult for Barings to attract and retain qualified personnel. Also, we may be required to incur significant legal fees and other expenses related to any securities litigation and activist stockholder matters. Further, our stock price could be subject to significant fluctuation or otherwise be adversely affected by the events, risks and uncertainties of any securities litigation and stockholder activism.

On December 23, 2020, as part of the MVC Acquisition, the Board affirmed its commitment under the Merger Agreement to open-market purchases of shares of our common stock in an aggregate amount of up to $15.0 million at then-current market prices at any time shares trade below 90% of our then most recently disclosed net asset value per share. Any repurchases pursuant to the authorized program will occur during the 12-month period that commenced upon the filing of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2021, which occurred on May 6, 2021, and will be made in accordance with applicable legal, regulatory and contractual requirements. During the year ended December 31, 2021, we did not repurchase any shares under the authorized program. There can be no assurance that any future share repurchases will occur, or, if they occur, that they will enhance stockholder value. In addition, any future share repurchases could have a material adverse effect on our business for the following reasons: - Repurchases may not prove to be the best use of our cash resources. - Repurchases will diminish our cash reserves, which could impact our ability to finance future growth and to pursue possible future strategic opportunities. - We may incur debt in connection with our business in the event that we use other cash resources to repurchase shares, which may affect the financial performance of our business during future periods or our liquidity and the availability of capital for other needs of the business. - Repurchases could affect the trading price of our common stock or increase its volatility and may reduce the market liquidity for our stock. - Repurchases may not be made at the best possible price and the market price of our common stock may decline below the levels at which we repurchased shares of common stock. - Any suspension, modification or discontinuance of any future share repurchase plan could result in a decrease in the trading price of our common stock. - Repurchases may make it more difficult for us to meet the diversification requirements necessary to qualify for tax treatment as a RIC for U.S. federal income tax purposes; failure to qualify for tax treatment as a RIC would render our taxable income subject to corporate-level U.S. federal income taxes. - Repurchases may cause our non-compliance with covenants under our financing agreements, which could have an adverse effect on our operating results and financial condition.

In order to satisfy the requirements applicable to a RIC, and to avoid payment of U.S. federal excise tax, we intend to distribute to our stockholders substantially all of our net ordinary income and net capital gain income except for certain net long-term capital gains recognized after we became a RIC, some or all of which we may retain, pay applicable U.S. federal income taxes with respect thereto and elect to treat as deemed distributions to our stockholders. As a BDC, we generally are required to meet a coverage ratio of total assets to total senior securities, which includes all of our borrowings and any preferred stock we may issue, of at least 150%. This requirement limits the amount that we may borrow and may prohibit us from making distributions. If the value of our assets declines, we may be unable to satisfy this test. If that happens, we may be required to sell a portion of our investments or sell additional securities and, depending on the nature of our leverage, to repay a portion of our indebtedness at a time when such sales may be disadvantageous. In addition, issuance of additional securities could dilute the percentage ownership of our current stockholders in us. While we expect to be able to borrow and to issue debt and additional equity securities, we cannot assure you that debt and equity financing will be available to us on favorable terms, or at all. If additional funds are not available to us, we could be forced to curtail or cease new investment activities, and our net asset value could decline.

The Board has the authority to modify or waive our current investment objectives, operating policies and strategies without prior notice and without stockholder approval (except as required by the 1940 Act). However, absent stockholder approval, we may not change the nature of our business so as to cease to be, or withdraw our election as, a BDC. We cannot predict the effect any changes to our current operating policies, investment criteria and strategies would have on our business, net asset value, operating results and value of our stock. However, the effects might be adverse, which could negatively impact our ability to pay you distributions and cause you to lose all or part of your investment. Moreover, we will have significant flexibility in investing the net proceeds from any future offering and may use the net proceeds from such offerings in ways with which investors may not agree or for purposes other than those contemplated at the time of the offering.

Preferred stock, which is another form of leverage, has the same risks to our common stockholders as borrowings because the dividends on any preferred stock we issue must be cumulative. Payment of such dividends and repayment of the liquidation preference of such preferred stock must take preference over any dividends or other payments to our common stockholders, and preferred stockholders are not subject to any of our expenses or losses and are not entitled to participate in any income or appreciation in excess of their stated preference.

We intend to pay quarterly distributions to our stockholders out of assets legally available for distribution. We cannot assure you that we will achieve investment results that will allow us to make a specified level of cash distributions or year-to-year increases in cash distributions. Our ability to pay distributions might be harmed by, among other things, the risk factors described in this Annual Report on Form 10-K. In addition, the inability to satisfy the asset coverage test applicable to us as a BDC could, in the future, limit our ability to pay distributions. All distributions will be paid at the discretion of the Board and will depend on our earnings, our financial condition, maintenance of our RIC tax treatment, compliance with applicable BDC regulations, compliance with the covenants under our financing agreements and any debt securities we may issue and such other factors as the Board may deem relevant from time to time. We cannot assure you that we will pay distributions to our stockholders in the future. Some of the above-described risks may also inhibit our ability to make required interest payments to holders of any debt securities we may issue, which may cause a default under the terms of our debt agreements. Such a default could materially increase our cost of raising capital, as well as cause us to incur penalties or trigger cross-default provisions under the terms of our debt agreements. When we make quarterly distributions, we will be required to determine the extent to which such distributions are paid out of current or accumulated earnings and profits, recognized capital gain or capital. To the extent there is a return of capital, investors will be required to reduce their basis in our stock for U.S. federal income tax purposes, which may result in a higher tax liability when the shares are sold, even if they have not increased in value or have lost value.

Under the Amended and Restated Advisory Agreement, the base management fee will be payable even if the value of your investment declines. The base management fee is calculated based on our gross assets, including assets purchased with borrowed funds or other forms of leverage (but excluding cash or cash equivalents ). Accordingly, the base management fee is payable regardless of whether the value of our gross assets and/or your investment has decreased during the then-current quarter and creates an incentive for Barings to incur leverage, which may not be consistent with our stockholders' interests. The income-based fee payable to Barings is calculated based on a percentage of our return on invested capital. The income-based fee payable to Barings may create an incentive for Barings to make investments on our behalf that are risky or more speculative than would be the case in the absence of such a compensation arrangement. Unlike the base management fee, the income-based fee is payable only if the hurdle rate is achieved. Because the portfolio earns investment income on gross assets while the hurdle rate is based on invested capital, and because the use of leverage increases gross assets without any corresponding increase in invested capital, Barings may be incentivized to incur leverage to grow the portfolio, which will tend to enhance returns where our portfolio has positive returns and increase the chances that such hurdle rate is achieved. Conversely, the use of leverage may increase losses where our portfolio has negative returns, which would impair the value of our common stock. In addition, Barings receives the capital gains fee based, in part, upon net capital gains realized on our investments. Unlike the income-based fee, there is no hurdle rate applicable to the capital gains fee. As a result, Barings may have a tendency to invest more capital in investments that are likely to result in capital gains as compared to income producing securities. Such a practice could result in our investing in more speculative securities than would otherwise be the case, which may not be in the best interests of our stockholders and could result in higher investment losses, particularly during economic downturns.

Principals of Barings and its affiliates and members of Barings' investment committee may serve as directors of, or in a similar capacity with, companies in which we invest, the securities of which are purchased or sold on our behalf. In the event that material nonpublic information is obtained with respect to such companies, or we become subject to trading restrictions under the internal trading policies of those companies or as a result of applicable law or regulations, we could be prohibited for a period of time from purchasing or selling the securities of such companies, and this prohibition may have an adverse effect on us.