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Couchbase (BASE)
NASDAQ:BASE

Couchbase (BASE) AI Stock Analysis

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Couchbase

(NASDAQ:BASE)

Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▲(7.16%Upside)
Couchbase's strong technical indicators and positive earnings call results drive the stock's score. However, financial challenges, particularly persistent losses and negative cash flow, weigh heavily on the overall score, as does the unattractive valuation due to a negative P/E ratio.
Positive Factors
ARR Growth
Couchbase delivered a strong quarter with reported ARR of $252.1 million, up 21% YoY and 20% in constant currency, which was ~3.5% ahead of consensus.
Quarterly Performance
Couchbase delivered its best quarter of the year in Q4 with strong growth driven by large strategic migrations and expansion opportunities.
Revenue Growth
An acceleration in Capella revenue growth to 84% YoY marked the largest Capella NNARR quarter on record.
Negative Factors
Customer Churn
The qtr-qtr downtick in Total Customers resulting from churn among customers using starter-packs.
Revenue Guidance
FY26 ARR and revenue guidance were slightly below expectations and CFO Greg Henry is departing the company.
Revenue Performance
Revenue performance continues to lag due to revenue recognition dynamics and softness in professional services.

Couchbase (BASE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Couchbase Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCouchbase, Inc. provides a database for enterprise applications worldwide. Its database works in multiple configurations, ranging from cloud to multi- or hybrid-cloud to on-premise environments to the edge. The company offers Couchbase Server, a multi-service NoSQL database, which provides SQL-compatible query language and SQL++, that allows for a various array of data manipulation functions; and Couchbase Capella, an automated and secure Database-as-a-Service that helps in database management by deploying, managing, and operating Couchbase Server across cloud environments. It also provides Couchbase Mobile, an embedded NoSQL database for mobile and edge devices that enables an always-on experience with high data availability, even without internet connectivity, as well as synchronization gateway that allows for secure data sync between mobile devices and the backend data store. The company sells its platform through direct sales force and an ecosystem of partners. It servs governments and organizations, as well as enterprises in various industries, including retail and e-commerce, travel and hospitality, financial services and insurance, software and technology, gaming, media and entertainment, and industrials. The company was formerly known as Membase, Inc. and changed its name to Couchbase, Inc. in February 2011. Couchbase, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyCouchbase makes money primarily through the sale of software subscriptions and support services. The company's revenue model is based on a subscription-based licensing model for its Couchbase Server product. This includes licensing fees for using its database solutions, which can be deployed on-premises or in the cloud. Couchbase also offers its Couchbase Cloud service, a fully managed database-as-a-service (DBaaS) offering, which generates recurring revenue through monthly or annual subscriptions. Additionally, Couchbase provides professional services, training, and consulting, which contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with cloud providers and technology integrators enhance its market reach and customer acquisition strategy, further contributing to its earnings.

Couchbase Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 3.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a strong start to fiscal 2026 with significant growth in ARR and Capella adoption, driven by strategic account engagement and innovation in AI and edge capabilities. However, challenges such as a decline in customer count, professional service revenue, and negative operating cash flow were noted.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal 2026
Couchbase, Inc. exceeded the high end of its guidance ranges, with first quarter ARR of $252.1 million, up 21% year over year, and net new ARR of $14.2 million, up more than 300% year over year.
Capella Adoption and Growth
Capella ARR increased over 80% year over year, with a 14% sequential increase from last quarter, driven by migrations, application growth, and strong credit consumption.
Strategic Account Growth
The company capitalized on deepening engagement with strategic accounts, including wins in industries such as energy, defense, healthcare, and sports.
Innovations in AI and Edge Capabilities
Couchbase launched Couchbase Edge Server and enhanced AI capabilities, including high-performance vector database for AI applications.
Negative Updates
Decline in Customer Count
The customer base decreased by 10 net new customers, driven by churn in customers with starter packs, despite healthy gross retention.
Professional Service Revenue Decline
Professional service revenue was $1.7 million, down 27% year over year and 22% sequentially.
Negative Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow for the first quarter was negative $6.8 million, with free cash flow at negative $8.6 million.
Company Guidance
During Couchbase, Inc.'s first quarter 2026 earnings call, the company reported impressive results that exceeded expectations across several key metrics. Total Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $252.1 million, representing a 21% increase year-over-year and a 6% rise sequentially, driven by strong momentum in large strategic accounts and Capella adoption. Net new ARR was $14.2 million, showcasing a growth of over 300% compared to the previous year. The company achieved a total revenue of $56.5 million, a 10% increase year-over-year, and recorded a non-GAAP operating loss of $4.2 million. Capella ARR, a key growth driver, surged by 84% year-over-year to $44 million, making up 17.4% of the total ARR. Additionally, the company maintained a dollar-based net retention rate greater than 114% and ended the quarter with 937 customers. Looking ahead, Couchbase, Inc. raised its full-year revenue and ARR outlook, with expectations of continued growth driven by strategic opportunities, Capella adoption, and product innovations.

Couchbase Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Couchbase demonstrates commendable revenue growth and a strong gross profit margin, yet grapples with persistent losses and negative cash flows. The balance sheet is stable with low debt, but ongoing losses pose a risk to financial health. Continued focus on improving profitability and cash flow will be crucial for future stability.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
The income statement shows a positive trend in revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue increase of 16.3% compared to the previous year. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. Gross profit margins remain relatively strong at 88.1%, but significant operating losses are a concern.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, suggesting minimal reliance on debt. The equity ratio is 49.0%, reflecting a balanced financial structure. However, the company is still at risk due to ongoing net losses impacting equity.
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow, but there has been an improvement with a 40.3% reduction in the negative free cash flow year-on-year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.21, indicating cash flow management issues.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
209.47M180.04M154.82M123.54M103.28M
Gross Profit
184.51M157.96M134.56M108.76M91.67M
EBIT
-78.66M-84.54M-67.65M-56.26M-33.08M
EBITDA
-70.51M-76.36M-64.18M-53.73M-29.96M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-74.65M-80.18M-68.49M-58.23M-39.98M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
147.17M153.63M168.30M205.95M56.84M
Total Assets
260.60M247.75M253.04M276.74M117.19M
Total Debt
4.32M5.29M7.66M0.0024.95M
Net Debt
-26.22M-36.06M-32.79M-95.69M-12.35M
Total Liabilities
132.98M117.33M102.78M93.53M103.71M
Stockholders Equity
127.62M130.42M150.26M183.22M13.48M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-18.85M-31.60M-46.83M-42.39M-42.00M
Operating Cash Flow
-15.83M-26.89M-41.19M-41.57M-39.18M
Investing Cash Flow
-4.85M15.43M-23.37M-92.03M-22.41M
Financing Cash Flow
9.94M12.93M9.71M192.41M80.50M

Couchbase Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.13
Price Trends
50DMA
16.86
Positive
100DMA
16.82
Positive
200DMA
16.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.52
Negative
RSI
67.82
Neutral
STOCH
75.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BASE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.39, above the 50-day MA of 16.86, and above the 200-day MA of 16.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BASE.

Couchbase Risk Analysis

Couchbase disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Couchbase reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Couchbase Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ZSZS
74
Outperform
$45.93B-2.68%25.46%49.20%
71
Outperform
$11.27B25.849.82%3.51%-27.28%
MDMDB
69
Neutral
$15.83B-4.00%19.24%59.66%
SWSWI
68
Neutral
$3.20B28.867.87%5.03%
64
Neutral
$990.55M-55.90%12.76%16.97%
62
Neutral
$11.75B10.58-7.10%2.91%7.47%-7.95%
61
Neutral
$3.85B8.73-8.85%-14.03%-167.03%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BASE
Couchbase
19.46
1.49
8.29%
AKAM
Akamai
76.14
-13.04
-14.62%
MDB
MongoDB
225.38
-1.64
-0.72%
ZS
Zscaler
300.88
119.89
66.24%
SWI
SolarWinds
18.49
6.92
59.81%
STNE
Stoneco
13.82
0.58
4.38%

Couchbase Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Couchbase Reports Strong Q1 Fiscal 2026 Results
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Couchbase held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected Class I directors and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm. They also approved executive compensation and set the frequency of future advisory votes. Couchbase announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reporting a 10% increase in total revenue and a 21% increase in annual recurring revenue year-over-year. The company launched Couchbase Edge Server and continued to innovate its AI capabilities, receiving industry recognition and relocating to a new global headquarters in San Jose.

The most recent analyst rating on (BASE) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Couchbase stock, see the BASE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.