Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $92.18M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 144.87K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: 72.69%
• EPS Growth: 65.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: 191
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 55,527,653
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 139,144
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 144,874
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 27.13
• 1Y Price Target: $3.63
• Price Target Upside: 118.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(20.48% Upside)

Bridger Aerospace's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results, highlighting significant revenue growth and improved profitability. However, ongoing profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio weigh on the valuation, while technical indicators suggest neutral momentum.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

This substantial revenue growth indicates strong market demand for Bridger Aerospace's services, enhancing its market position and supporting long-term financial health.

Fleet Utilization

Increased fleet utilization and strategic task orders demonstrate effective asset deployment and strong demand, reinforcing Bridger's competitive edge in aerial firefighting.

Cash Flow Improvement

Robust cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, allowing Bridger Aerospace to invest in strategic initiatives and manage operational costs effectively.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Negative profit margins indicate persistent challenges in cost management and pricing strategy, potentially impacting long-term financial sustainability.

High Maintenance Costs

Rising maintenance costs could strain profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting long-term operational efficiency.

FMS Revenue Delays

Delays in FMS revenue due to federal budget issues could hinder expected cash flows, affecting financial planning and stability in the near to medium term.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC offers aerial wildfire management and firefighting services for the U.S. State Governments. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Belgrade, Montana.

How the Company Makes Money

Bridger Aerospace makes money primarily through contracts with government agencies, such as the U.S. Forest Service and other state and local firefighting agencies, which hire the company for its specialized aerial firefighting services. The company also generates revenue by providing its services to private landowners and international clients needing wildfire management solutions. Additionally, Bridger Aerospace may leverage its fleet and technological expertise for other aerial services, contributing to its revenue streams. Partnerships with aircraft manufacturers and technology providers could further enhance their service offerings and profitability.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows mixed financial performance. Strong revenue growth and cash flow improvements are offset by ongoing profitability challenges, as indicated by negative net income and return on equity. The significant reduction in leverage enhances financial stability.

Income Statement

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data reveals a gross profit margin of 40.78%, which is relatively healthy, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is negative at -0.58%, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. Revenue growth is strong at 16.31% TTM, suggesting positive sales momentum. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are modest at 18.33% and 19.79%, respectively, indicating room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet presents a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.06 TTM, indicating a strong reduction in leverage and a more stable financial structure. However, the return on equity remains negative at -1.43%, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the reduction in debt suggests a more balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows positive trends, with a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 107.96% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.64, suggesting a decent conversion of earnings into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.58 further supports the company's ability to generate cash despite net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	126.49M	98.61M	66.71M	46.39M	39.38M	13.41M
Gross Profit	51.58M	41.14M	25.37M	12.50M	12.80M	558.77K
EBITDA	25.04M	24.84M	-43.44M	-13.01M	9.43M	-6.18M
Net Income	-729.00K	-15.57M	-77.36M	-42.13M	-6.54M	-12.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	279.04M	290.81M	273.47M	305.98M	195.11M	132.06M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.04M	39.34M	23.96M	85.14M	13.69M	5.25M
Total Debt	2.50M	212.56M	214.62M	208.69M	60.88M	55.09M
Total Liabilities	236.65M	237.33M	246.54M	228.39M	133.25M	69.18M
Stockholders Equity	42.39M	53.48M	26.93M	77.59M	61.86M	62.87M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.14M	5.27M	-47.87M	-45.31M	-47.74M	-61.12M
Operating Cash Flow	15.70M	9.36M	-26.81M	-9.92M	6.02M	-7.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.28M	2.06M	27.16M	-89.81M	-54.76M	-53.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.05M	4.67M	-5.83M	124.93M	60.76M	54.99M

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.66
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.88, below the 50-day MA of 1.90, and below the 200-day MA of 1.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAER.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	73 Outperform	$1.54B	36.28	25.74%	1.23%	-3.81%	-11.48%
SNT	70 Outperform	$113.60M	―	7.00%	―	―	―
MG	67 Neutral	$305.29M	26.77	5.29%	―	-4.51%	―
BAER	58 Neutral	$92.18M	―	-1.79%	―	72.69%	65.51%
GFAI	50 Neutral	$23.55M	-2.48	-18.30%	―	4.38%	74.69%
KSCP	44 Neutral	$55.60M	-0.58	-205.74%	―	-6.61%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events

Bridger Aerospace Unveils Strategic Expansion Plans

In August 2025, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings presented an investor presentation highlighting their strategic plans for expansion and increased deployment of their aircraft fleet. The company aims to enhance its operations and market positioning by investing in additional aircraft and capital resources, despite facing various risks and uncertainties related to market conditions and competition.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAER) stock is a Buy with a $5.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings stock, see the BAER Stock Forecast page.