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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
(NASDAQ:BAER)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-45.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—especially significant negative operating/free cash flow and a return to TTM losses—plus bearish technical signals with the stock trading below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include improved leverage and constructive earnings-call messaging with reiterated guidance and stronger contracted demand visibility, but near-term liquidity pressure (sharp cash decline) limits the uplift.
Positive Factors
Longer Guaranteed Task Orders
Longer guaranteed orders improve fleet utilization, revenue visibility and operational planning. They also reduce reliance on uncertain fire-event deployment and support more predictable capacity commitments across future fire seasons.
Negative Factors
Severe Cash Burn and Liquidity Pressure
Persistent negative cash generation indicates substantial investment or working-capital needs despite positive EBITDA. The sharp cash decline raises funding and execution risk, making continued access to credit important for fleet readiness and growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Longer Guaranteed Task Orders
Longer guaranteed orders improve fleet utilization, revenue visibility and operational planning. They also reduce reliance on uncertain fire-event deployment and support more predictable capacity commitments across future fire seasons.
Read all positive factors
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$67.65M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)406.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.03
Revenue Growth-8.74%
EPS Growth-46.12%
CountryUS
Employees235
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySecurity & Protection Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.72
Shares Outstanding58,826,140
10 Day Avg. Volume334,310
30 Day Avg. Volume406,375
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio-1.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.67Price Target Upside98.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.54
Revenue Forecast (FY)$137.53M
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, LLC, established in 2014, specializes in delivering aerial services for wildfire management and suppression to various U.S. state government entities. The company's operations are headquartered in Belgrade, Montana....
How the Company Makes Money
Bridger Aerospace makes money by contracting its aircraft, flight crews, and operational support services to customers that need aerial firefighting and specialized aviation capabilities. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Aerial firefighting se...
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted substantial operational progress — notably longer guaranteed task orders, strategic contract wins (including a $58M Texas A&M agreement), deployment of advanced sensor-equipped aircraft, and software/intelligence integration — and management reiterated full-year guidance. However, near-term financials showed pressure: Adjusted EBITDA declined ~25%, a switch to a small net loss, a large reduction in cash (~77% from year-end), higher interest expense, and higher cost of revenues (32% ex-one-time items). Management points to seasonal working capital patterns, strong peak-season demand, and significant credit facility availability (~$75M) as mitigants. Overall, operational momentum is strong but short-term liquidity and margin metrics are under pressure, leaving a balanced mix of positives and near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Long-Duration U.S. Forest Service Task Orders
Awarded two 160-day task orders covering four Super Scoopers — the longest guaranteed task orders in Bridger's history — activating staggered into October/November, improving fleet utilization, operational visibility and planning.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Essentially Flat
Reported revenue of $30.5M in Q2 2026 vs $30.8M in Q2 2025 (≈ -1%); the headline flat result was driven by timing of non-recurring return-to-service work ($4.3M lower vs prior year).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Long-Duration U.S. Forest Service Task Orders
Awarded two 160-day task orders covering four Super Scoopers — the longest guaranteed task orders in Bridger's history — activating staggered into October/November, improving fleet utilization, operational visibility and planning.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Bridger reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of $135–$145 million in revenue and $55–$60 million in Adjusted EBITDA, representing roughly 29% pro forma revenue growth when excluding the $5.1M of non‑recurring Spanish Super Scooper return‑to‑service work recognized in 2025 (Q2 2026 had $0.8M of such work, a $4.3M delta). In Q2 the company reported $30.5M of revenue (vs. $30.8M a year ago), Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1M (vs. $10.8M), cost of revenues $19.2M (vs. $18.7M), a net loss of $0.5M, loss attributable to common stockholders of $7.6M (‑$0.13 per diluted share), and $7.2M of cash at quarter‑end (vs. $31.4M at YE 2025). Management cited stronger fleet utilization, longer guaranteed task orders (two 160‑day task orders covering four Super Scoopers; eight of nine surveillance aircraft on multi‑year commitments and four of six U.S. MMAs on guaranteed 160 days), a $58M Texas A&M aircraft contract (not expected to materially affect 2026 revenue), and approximately $75M of remaining credit facility availability (with a $100M delayed draw feature) as the basis for maintaining the guidance and expecting improved operating cash flow as seasonality converts receivables to cash.Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 115.44M | 122.83M | 98.61M | 66.71M | 46.39M | 39.38M |
| Gross Profit | 43.98M | 51.68M | 41.14M | 25.37M | 12.50M | 12.80M |
| EBITDA | 27.85M | 42.66M | 24.84M | -43.35M | -13.01M | 9.43M |
| Net Income | -12.43M | 4.14M | -15.57M | -77.36M | -42.13M | -6.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 324.14M | 330.31M | 290.81M | 273.47M | 305.98M | 195.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.24M | 31.38M | 39.34M | 23.96M | 85.14M | 13.69M |
| Total Debt | 267.92M | 244.85M | 212.56M | 214.62M | 208.69M | 60.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 289.84M | 265.64M | 237.33M | 246.54M | 230.58M | 133.25M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.30M | 64.67M | 53.48M | 26.93M | 75.40M | 61.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -89.04M | -64.21M | 5.27M | -47.87M | -35.50M | -47.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -3.88M | 16.73M | 9.36M | -26.81M | -9.92M | 6.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.74M | -34.44M | 2.06M | 27.16M | -89.81M | -54.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 19.65M | -4.32M | 4.67M | -5.83M | 124.93M | 60.76M |
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
1.85
Price Trends
1.74
Negative
1.88
Negative
2.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
27.16
Positive
8.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.55, above the 50-day MA of 1.74, and below the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.16 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAER.
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Risk Analysis
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.35B | 36.98 | 20.86% | 1.62% | 8.83% | -16.34% | |
65 Neutral | $621.39M | 22.42 | 11.52% | ― | 5.23% | 130.36% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $978.08M | -205.38 | -4.53% | ― | 41.67% | 94.89% | |
55 Neutral | $39.90M | 29.91 | 3.21% | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $67.65M | -1.69 | -23.56% | ― | -8.74% | -46.12% | |
46 Neutral | $33.54M | -0.41 | -152.20% | ― | 88.02% | 63.33% |
* Industrials Sector Average
BAER
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
1.22
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-39.30%
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KSCP
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Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Bridger Aerospace wins Texas wildfire aviation contract
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 27, 2026, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings announced it had secured a $58 million contract with Texas AM Forest Service to acquire, modify, and deliver three King Air 360 multi-mission aircraft over the next three years. The aircraft will ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Bridger Aerospace Stockholders Back Board and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 4, 2026, where stockholders elected three Class I directors, Dan Drohan, H. Wyman Howard III, and David Schellenberg, to serve until the 2029 Annual Meeting or u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.