Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings (BAER) Risk Analysis

The Warrant Agreement provides that (i) any action, proceeding or claim against us arising out of or relating in any way to the Warrant Agreement will be brought and enforced in the courts of the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York and (ii) we irrevocably submit to such jurisdiction, which jurisdiction will be exclusive. We have waived or will waive any objection to such exclusive jurisdiction and that such courts represent an inconvenient forum. We note, however, that there is uncertainty as to whether a court would enforce these provisions and that investors cannot waive compliance with the federal securities laws and the rules and regulations thereunder. Section 22 of the Securities Act creates concurrent jurisdiction for state and federal courts over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Securities Act or the rules and regulations thereunder. Notwithstanding the foregoing, these provisions of the Warrant Agreement will not apply to suits brought to enforce any liability or duty created by the Exchange Act or any other claim for which the federal district courts of the United States of America are the sole and exclusive forum. Section 27 of the Exchange Act creates exclusive federal jurisdiction over all suits brought to enforce any duty or liability created by the Exchange Act or the rules and regulations thereunder. Any person or entity purchasing or otherwise acquiring any interest in any of the Warrants shall be deemed to have notice of and to have consented to the forum provisions in the Warrant Agreement. If any action, the subject matter of which is within the scope of the forum provisions of the Warrant Agreement, is filed in a court other than a court of the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York (a "foreign action") in the name of any holder of the Warrants such holder shall be deemed to have consented to: (x) the personal jurisdiction of the state and federal courts located within the State of New York or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York in connection with any action brought in any such court to enforce the forum provisions (an "enforcement action") and (y) having service of process made upon such warrant holder in any such enforcement action by service upon such warrant holder's counsel in the foreign action as agent for such warrant holder. This choice-of-forum provision may limit a warrant holder's ability to bring a claim in a judicial forum that it finds favorable for disputes with us, which may discourage such lawsuits. Alternatively, if a court were to find this provision of the Warrant Agreement inapplicable or unenforceable with respect to one or more of the specified types of actions or proceedings, we may incur additional costs associated with resolving such matters in other jurisdictions, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations and result in a diversion of the time and resources of our management and Board.

We have the ability to redeem the outstanding Warrants at any time and prior to their expiration, at a price of $0.01 per warrant if, among other things, the last reported sale price of our Common Stock for any 20 trading days within a 30-trading day period ending on the third trading day prior to the date on which we send the notice of redemption to the warrant holders (the "Reference Value") equals or exceeds $18.00 per share (as adjusted for share splits, share dividends, rights issuances, subdivisions, reorganizations, recapitalizations and the like). If and when the Warrants become redeemable by us, we may exercise our redemption right even if we are unable to register or qualify the underlying securities for sale under all applicable state securities laws. As a result, we may redeem the Warrants as set forth above even if the holders are otherwise unable to exercise the Warrants. Redemption of the outstanding Warrants as described above could force you to: (i) exercise your Warrants and pay the exercise price therefor at a time when it may be disadvantageous for you to do so; (ii) sell your Warrants at the then-current market price when you might otherwise wish to hold your Warrants; or (iii) accept the nominal redemption price which, at the time the outstanding Warrants are called for redemption, we expect would be substantially less than the market value of your Warrants. In addition, we have the ability to redeem the outstanding Warrants at any time and prior to their expiration, at a price of $0.10 per Warrant if, among other things, the Reference Value equals or exceeds $10.00 per share (as adjusted for share splits, share dividends, rights issuances, subdivisions, reorganization, recapitalizations and the like). In such case, the holders will be able to exercise their Warrants prior to the redemption for a number of shares of our Common Stock determined based on the redemption date and the fair market value of our Common Stock. We have no obligation to notify holders of the Warrants that they have become eligible for redemption. However, pursuant to the Warrant Agreement, in the event we decide to redeem the Warrants, we are required to mail notice of such redemption to the registered warrant holders not less than 30 days prior to the redemption date. The Warrants may be exercised any time after notice of redemption is given and prior to the redemption date. None of the Private Placement Warrants will be redeemable by us so long as they are held by JCIC Sponsor or its permitted transferees; provided the Private Placement Warrants may be redeemed in accordance with the Warrant Agreement (and must be redeemed if the Public Warrants are being redeemed) if the Reference Value equals or exceeds $10.00 per share and does not equal or exceed $18.00 per share.

As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, the exercise price for our Warrants is $11.50 per share of Common Stock. On March 3, 2026, the closing price of our Common Stock on Nasdaq was $2.39 per share. For so long as the market price of our Common Stock is below the exercise price of our Warrants ($11.50 per share), our Warrants remain "out-of-the money," and our Warrant Holders are unlikely to cash exercise their Warrants, resulting in little or no cash proceeds to us. There can be no assurance that our Warrants will be in the money prior to their January 24, 2028 expiration date, and therefore, we may not receive any proceeds from the exercise of Warrants to fund our operations. In addition, the Warrants were issued in registered form under the Warrant Agreement, dated January 26, 2021, by and between Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company, as Warrant Agent, and JCIC, which was assumed by the Company by virtue of the Warrant Assumption Agreement, dated January 24, 2023, the Company (such agreement, as assumed, the "Warrant Agreement"). The Warrant Agreement provides that the terms of the Warrants may be amended without the consent of any holder to cure any ambiguity or correct any defective provision but requires the approval by the holders of at least 65% of the then-outstanding Public Warrants to make any other change that affects the interests of the registered holders of Public Warrants. Accordingly, we may amend the terms of the Public Warrants in a manner adverse to a holder if holders of at least 65% of the then-outstanding Public Warrants approve of such amendment. Although our ability to amend the terms of the Public Warrants with the consent of at least 65% of the then-outstanding Public Warrants is unlimited, examples of such amendments could be amendments to, among other things, increase the exercise price of the Warrants, shorten the exercise period or decrease the number of shares of our Common Stock purchasable upon exercise of a Warrant.

Outstanding Warrants to purchase an aggregate of 26,649,874 shares of our Common Stock became exercisable in accordance with the terms of the Warrant Agreement (as defined below) governing those securities. These Warrants became exercisable commencing on February 23, 2023. The exercise price of these Warrants is $11.50 per share, subject to certain potential future adjustments. To the extent such Warrants are exercised, additional shares of our Common Stock will be issued, which will result in dilution to our holders and increase the number of shares eligible for resale in the public market. Sales of substantial numbers of such shares in the public market or the fact that the Warrants may be exercised could adversely affect the market price of our Common Stock. The price of our Common Stock may remain below $11.50 until expiration of the Warrant exercise period and as such, the Warrants may expire worthless. See the section of this Annual Report on Form 10-K entitled "Risk Factors-The price of our Common Stock may remain below $11.50 until expiration of the Warrant exercise period, and the Warrants may expire worthless and the terms of the Warrants may be amended in a manner adverse to a holder if holders of at least 65% of (i) the then-outstanding Public Warrants and/or (ii) the then-outstanding Private Placement Warrants, as applicable, approve of such amendment."

If we or our existing stockholders sell, or indicate an intention to sell, substantial amounts of shares of our Common Stock or Warrants in the public market, the trading price of our Common Stock or Warrants could decline. In addition, the perception that such sales could occur, could harm the prevailing market price of shares of our Common Stock or Warrants. These sales, or the possibility that these sales may occur, also might make it more difficult for us to sell equity securities in the future at a time and at a price that we deem appropriate and to raise additional funds through future offerings of our shares of Common Stock or other securities.

In the past, securities class action litigation has often been brought against a company following a decline in the market price of its securities. If we face such litigation, it could result in substantial costs and a diversion of management's attention and resources, which could harm our business.

As of December 31, 2025, the directors and executive officers beneficially owned 18.7% of the outstanding Common Stock. In addition, the equity holders of Bridger that are affiliates of Blackstone Inc. collectively beneficially owned 17.3% of the outstanding Common Stock as of December 31, 2025. As a result, Bridger has a small number of significant stockholders who could significantly influence its business and operations. As indicated above, Bridger has a few significant stockholders who own a substantial percentage of the outstanding Common Stock. These few significant stockholders, either individually or acting together, are able to exercise significant influence over matters requiring stockholder approval, including the election of directors and approval of significant corporate transactions, such as a merger or other sale of Bridger or its assets. This concentration of ownership may make it more difficult for other stockholders to effect substantial changes in Bridger, may have the effect of delaying, preventing or expediting, as the case may be, a change in control of Bridger and may adversely affect the market price of our Common Stock. Further, the possibility that one or more of these significant stockholders may sell all or a large portion of their Common Stock in a short period of time could adversely affect the trading price of our Common Stock. The interests of these significant stockholders may not be in the best interests of all stockholders.

The Company currently has 315,789.473684 shares of Series A Preferred Stock that are issued and outstanding. The Series A Preferred Stock is convertible non-participating preferred stock, with a conversion price of $11.00 per share and accrues dividends at a rate of 7.0% per annum (payable in cash or in-kind, subject to specified limitations) to but excluding April 25, 2028, 9.0% per annum from (and including) April 25, 2028 to but excluding April 25, 2029 and 11.00% per annum from (and including) April 25, 2029. In addition, under the terms of the Series A Preferred Stock, we may, at our option, redeem all or any portion of the outstanding shares of Preferred Stock under certain circumstances any time after April 25, 2027, and we must redeem the shares by on or before April 25, 2032. Upon certain fundamental changes to us and our ownership structure, the holders of Series A Preferred Stock may require us to redeem their shares of Series A Preferred Stock. The redemption price is generally equal to original purchase price of the Series A Preferred Stock plus all accrued and unpaid dividends thereon, and in certain circumstances, also includes a "make-whole" payment. Our obligations to the holders of Preferred Stock could also limit our ability to obtain additional financing or increase our borrowing costs, which could have an adverse effect on our financial condition. The preferential rights could also result in divergent interests between the holders of the Series A Preferred Stock and our common stockholders. If we elect to redeem all or a portion of the Series A Preferred Stock, our liquidity, financial condition and amount of cash available for working capital, capital expenditures, growth opportunities, acquisitions and other general corporate purposes would be adversely affected. The Series A Preferred Stock may be converted at any time at the option of the holder into shares of our Common Stock. The conversion price of the Series A Preferred Stock is subject to customary anti-dilution adjustments, including in the event of any stock split, stock dividend, recapitalization or similar event. Adjustments to the conversion price could dilute the ownership interest of our common stockholders. Any conversion of the Series A Preferred Stock may significantly dilute our common stockholders and adversely affect both our net income per share and the market price of our common stock. The holders of Series A Preferred Stock have consent rights over the issuance of any equity securities senior or pari passu with the Series A Preferred Stock; any amendments to our Amended and Restated Charter that would adversely affect the rights, preferences or privileges of the Series A Preferred Stock; payment of dividends; mergers, consolidations, or a sale of substantially all of our assets and liquidations, dissolutions and winding up, in certain cases, unless we satisfy certain conditions. Otherwise, holders of the Series A Preferred Stock have no voting rights with respect to the election of directors or other matters submitted for a vote of holders of our Common Stock.

Our Common Stock and the Public Warrants are listed on Nasdaq under the symbols "BAER" and "BAERW," respectively. We are required to demonstrate compliance with Nasdaq's continued listing requirements in order to continue to maintain the listing of our securities on Nasdaq. If Nasdaq delists our securities from trading on its exchange and we are not able to list our securities on another national securities exchange, our securities could be quoted on an over-the-counter market. If this were to occur, we could face significant adverse consequences, including: - a limited availability of market quotations for our securities;- reduced liquidity for our securities;- a determination that our Common Stock is a "penny stock" which will require brokers trading in our Common Stock to adhere to more stringent rules and possibly result in a reduced level of trading activity in the secondary trading market for our securities;- a limited amount of news and analyst coverage; and - a decreased ability to issue additional securities or obtain additional financing in the future. The National Securities Markets Improvement Act of 1996, which is a federal statute, prevents or preempts the states from regulating the sale of certain securities, which are referred to as "covered securities." Because our Common Stock and Public Warrants are listed on Nasdaq, our Common Stock and Public Warrants qualify as covered securities. Although states are preempted from regulating the sale of our securities, the federal statute does allow states to investigate companies if there is a suspicion of fraud. If there is a finding of fraudulent activity, then states can regulate or bar the sale of covered securities in a particular case. Further, if we were no longer listed on Nasdaq, our securities would not be covered securities and we would be subject to regulation in each state in which we offer our securities.

Our Amended and Restated Charter and our Amended and Restated Bylaws contain provisions that could significantly reduce the value of our securities to a potential acquiror or delay or prevent changes in control or changes in our management without the consent of the Board. Such provisions may discourage unsolicited takeover proposals that stockholders may consider to be in their best interests. Our organizational documents include the following: - a classified Board with three-year staggered terms, which may delay the ability of stockholders to change the membership of a majority of the Board;- no cumulative voting in the election of directors, which limits the ability of minority stockholders to elect director candidates;- the exclusive right of the Board, unless the Board grants such a right to the holders of any series of preferred stock, to elect a director to fill a vacancy created by the expansion of the Board or the resignation, death or removal of a director, which prevents stockholders from being able to fill vacancies on the Board;- the prohibition on removal of directors without cause;- the ability of the Board to authorize the issuance of shares of preferred stock and to determine the price and other terms of those shares, including preferences and voting rights, without stockholder approval, which could be used to significantly dilute the ownership of a hostile acquiror;- the ability of the Board to alter our Amended and Restated Bylaws without obtaining stockholder approval;- the required approval of at least 66-2/3% of the shares of our Common Stock entitled to vote to amend or repeal our Amended and Restated Bylaws or amend, alter or repeal certain provisions of our Amended and Restated Charter;- a prohibition on stockholder action by written consent, which forces stockholder action to be taken at an annual or special meeting of our stockholders;- an exclusive forum provision providing that the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware will be the exclusive forum for certain actions and proceedings;- the requirement that a special meeting of stockholders may be called only by the Board, the chair of the Board, the chief executive officer or the president, which may delay the ability of our stockholders to force consideration of a proposal or to take action, including the removal of directors; and - advance notice procedures that stockholders must comply with in order to nominate candidates to the Board or to propose matters to be acted upon at a stockholders' meeting, which may discourage or deter a potential acquiror from conducting a solicitation of proxies to elect the acquiror's own slate of directors or otherwise attempting to obtain control of the company. We are not subject to the anti-takeover provisions contained in Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law. However, we may not engage in a business combination with any holder of 15% or more of our capital stock unless the holder has held the stock for three years or, among other exceptions, the Board has approved the transaction. Individually and collectively, these anti-takeover defenses could discourage, delay, or prevent a transaction involving a change in control of the Company. These provisions could also discourage proxy contests and make it more difficult for you and other stockholders to elect directors of your choosing and cause the Company to take corporate actions other than those you desire.

We are an "emerging growth company" within the meaning of the Securities Act, as modified by the JOBS Act, and we may take advantage of certain exemptions from various reporting requirements that are applicable to other public companies that are not "emerging growth companies" including, but not limited to, not being required to comply with the auditor attestation requirements of Section 404, reduced disclosure obligations regarding executive compensation in our periodic reports and proxy statements, and exemptions from the requirements of holding a nonbinding advisory vote on executive compensation and stockholder approval of any golden parachute payments not previously approved. As a result, our stockholders may not have access to certain information they may deem important. We could be an emerging growth company for up to five years, although circumstances could cause us to lose that status earlier, including if the market value of our Common Stock held by non-affiliates exceeds $700.0 million as of the end of any second quarter of a fiscal year, in which case we would no longer be an emerging growth company as of the last day of such fiscal year. We cannot predict whether investors will find our securities less attractive because we will rely on these exemptions. If some investors find our securities less attractive as a result of our reliance on these exemptions, the trading prices of our securities may be lower than they otherwise would be, there may be a less active trading market for our securities and the trading prices of our securities may be more volatile. Further, Section 102(b)(1) of the JOBS Act exempts "emerging growth companies" from being required to comply with new or revised financial accounting standards until private companies (that is, those that have not had a registration statement under the Securities Act declared effective or do not have a class of securities registered under the Exchange Act) are required to comply with the new or revised financial accounting standards. The JOBS Act provides that a company can elect to opt out of the extended transition period and comply with the requirements that apply to "non-emerging growth companies" but any such election to opt out is irrevocable. We have elected not to opt out of such extended transition period, which means that when a standard is issued or revised and it has different application dates for public or private companies, we, as an "emerging growth company", can adopt the new or revised standard at the time private companies adopt the new or revised standard. This may make comparison of our financial statements with another public company that is not an "emerging growth company" or is an "emerging growth company" which has opted out of using the extended transition period difficult or impossible because of the potential differences in accounting standards used. Additionally, we are a "smaller reporting company" as defined in Item 10(f)(1) of Regulation S-K. Smaller reporting companies may take advantage of certain reduced disclosure obligations, including, among other things, providing only two years of audited financial statements. We will remain a smaller reporting company until the last day of the fiscal year in which (i) the market value of our Common Stock held by non-affiliates is greater than or equal to $250.0 million as of the end of that fiscal year's second fiscal quarter and (ii) our annual revenues are greater than or equal to $100.0 million during the last completed fiscal year or the market value of our Common Stock held by non-affiliates exceeds $700.0 million as of the end of that fiscal year's second fiscal quarter. To the extent we take advantage of such reduced disclosure obligations, it may also make comparison of our financial statements with other public companies difficult or impossible.

We may issue additional shares of our Common Stock or other equity securities in the future in connection with, among other things, future acquisitions, repayment of outstanding indebtedness or grants under our Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. 2023 Omnibus Incentive Plan and the Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. 2023 Employee Stock Purchase Plan without stockholder approval in a number of circumstances. Our issuance of additional shares of our Common Stock or other equity securities could have one or more of the following effects: - our existing stockholders' proportionate ownership interest in us will decrease;- the amount of cash available per share, including for payment of dividends in the future, may decrease;- the relative voting strength of each previously outstanding share of our Common Stock may be diminished; and - the market price of our Common Stock may decline.

Under our Amended and Restated Charter and our Amended and Restated Bylaws, we have limited the ownership of non-U.S. citizens to 24.9% of the aggregate votes of all outstanding equity securities of our company or 49.0% of the aggregate number of outstanding equity securities in compliance with the regulations set forth by the FAA and the DOT. As a result, if we approach these limits, non-U.S. citizen demand for our equity securities may be reduced, and the price of our Common Stock may suffer.

The price of our Common Stock and Warrants may fluctuate significantly due to a number of factors, some of which may be beyond our control, including those factors discussed in this "Risk Factors" section and many others, such as: - actual or anticipated fluctuations in our financial condition and operating results, including fluctuations in our quarterly and annual results;- developments involving our competitors;- changes in laws and regulations affecting our business;- variations in our operating performance and the performance of our competitors in general;- the public's reaction to our press releases, our other public announcements and our filings with the SEC;- additions and departures of key personnel;- announcements of significant acquisitions, strategic partnerships, joint ventures or capital commitments by us or our competitors;- our failure to meet the estimates and projections of the investment community or that we may otherwise provide to the public;- publication of research reports about us or our industry, or positive or negative recommendations or withdrawal of research coverage by securities analysts;- changes in the market valuations of similar companies;- overall performance of the equity markets;- sales of our Common Stock and Warrants by us or our stockholders in the future;- trading volume of our Common Stock and Warrants;- significant lawsuits, including shareholder litigation;- failure to comply with the requirements of Nasdaq;- the impact of any natural disasters or public health emergencies;- general economic, industry and market conditions other events or factors, many of which are beyond our control; and - changes in accounting standards, policies, guidelines, interpretations or principles. These market and industry factors may materially reduce the market price of our Common Stock and our Warrants regardless of our operating performance.

The trading market for our Common Stock and Warrants will depend, in part, on the research and reports that securities or industry analysts publish about us. We do not have any control over these analysts. If our financial performance fails to meet analyst estimates or one or more of the analysts who cover us downgrade our Common Stock or change their opinion, then the trading prices of our securities would likely decline. If one or more of these analysts cease coverage of us or fail to regularly publish reports on us, we could lose visibility in the financial markets, which could cause the trading prices of our securities or trading volume to decline.