American Water (AWK) Risk Analysis

Parent company has reserved for issuance shares of its common stock to be issued in the proposed Essential merger (including shares of parent company common stock issuable pursuant to the proposed treatment of Essential stock options and other equity-based awards in the proposed merger). As of December 31, 2025, parent company shareholders and Essential's shareholders would own an estimated 69% and 31% of the outstanding shares of parent company common stock, respectively, on a fully diluted basis immediately following the consummation of the proposed merger. If the proposed merger occurs, each holder of parent company common stock will remain a shareholder of parent company but with a percentage ownership of the combined company that will be smaller than the shareholder's percentage of ownership immediately prior to the proposed merger. As a result of this reduced ownership percentage, parent company shareholders will have less voting power in the combined company than they now have with respect to parent company.

We currently anticipate that the proposed Essential merger will be accretive to our earnings per share in 2028, the first full year following the completion of the proposed merger. This expectation is based on preliminary estimates that are subject to change. We also could encounter additional transaction and integration-related costs, may fail to realize all of the benefits anticipated in the proposed merger or be subject to other factors that affect our preliminary estimates. Any of these factors could cause a decrease in our earnings per share or decrease or delay the expected accretive effect of the proposed merger and contribute to a decrease in the market price of our common stock.

We anticipate that, subject to the receipt of all required regulatory and other consents and approvals and the satisfaction or waiver of all other closing conditions, the Essential merger will be completed in the first quarter of 2027. Among other closing conditions, completion of the proposed Essential merger is conditioned upon the receipt of such required consents, orders and approvals from various governmental and regulatory entities and other third parties, including PUCs in certain states in which either or both companies operate, including without limitation the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. The proposed merger is also subject to review under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, and the expiration or earlier termination of the waiting period (and any extension of the waiting period) applicable to the proposed merger is a condition to closing the proposed merger. We cannot provide any assurance that all of the required consents, orders and approvals will be obtained or that these consents, orders or approvals will not be conditioned on terms, conditions or restrictions that would be detrimental to the combined company after the completion of the Essential merger, including requiring one or both companies to dispose of certain assets. The Essential Merger Agreement allows, subject to certain conditions, limitations and exclusions, each party to terminate the Essential Merger Agreement (and generally without the payment of a termination fee to the non-terminating party) if the final terms of any of the required regulatory consents, orders or approvals would result in or require an undertaking of efforts or the taking of action that would reasonably be expected to have, individually or in the aggregate, a "burdensome effect" (as defined in the Essential Merger Agreement). Any substantial delay in obtaining satisfactory consents, orders or approvals, or the imposition of any requirements, terms or conditions in connection with a party's obtaining such consents, orders or approvals, could be on terms that we or Essential do not believe to be reasonable or could cause a material reduction in the expected benefits of the proposed merger and/or an impairment or deterioration in our or Essential's relationships with their respective applicable PUCs. If any such delays or conditions are significant enough, one or both parties may decide to abandon the proposed Essential merger and terminate the Essential Merger Agreement, subject to its terms. If the proposed merger is not completed, our ongoing businesses may be adversely affected, including, as follows: - having to pay certain significant costs relating to the proposed merger without receiving the benefits of the proposed merger, including, in certain circumstances, a payment by us to Essential of a termination fee of $835 million in the case of a termination fee payable by us to Essential;- diversion of management's attention from day-to-day operations;- not pursuing other strategic transactions that we may have otherwise considered had we not entered into the Essential Merger Agreement with Essential;- we will have been subject to certain restrictions on the conduct of our ongoing businesses, which may have prevented us from making certain acquisitions or dispositions or pursuing certain business opportunities while the proposed merger was pending; and - the price of parent company's common stock may decline to reflect assumptions by the market as to whether the proposed merger will be completed.

Upon completion of the proposed Essential merger, each outstanding share of Essential common stock will be converted into the right to receive 0.305 shares of parent company common stock. The number of shares of parent company common stock to be issued pursuant to the Essential Merger Agreement for each share of Essential common stock will not change to reflect changes in the market price of parent company common stock or Essential's common stock. Because we may not complete the proposed Essential merger until a significant period of time has passed after the determination of the exchange ratio, the market value of parent company common stock issued in connection with the Essential merger and the Essential common stock surrendered in connection with the Essential merger may be higher or lower than the value of the shares at the time the exchange ratio was fixed. Stock price changes may result from market assessment of the likelihood that the proposed Essential merger will be completed, changes in our or Essential's business, operations or prospects prior to or following the proposed Essential merger, litigation or regulatory considerations, reactions from the financial markets or analysts, general business, market, industry or economic conditions, and other factors both within and beyond our control, including the risks, uncertainties and other factors described in this Annual Report on Form 10-K and in our other SEC filings. We may not terminate the Essential Merger Agreement solely because of changes in the market price of either company's common stock.

Our issuance of common stock pursuant to a forward sale agreement upon physical settlement or net share settlement thereof will have a dilutive effect on our earnings per share. Any additional future issuances of our common stock will reduce the percentage of our common stock owned by investors who do not participate in future issuances. Shareholders will not be entitled to vote on our issuance of additional common stock. In addition, our shareholders may experience dilution in both the book value and fair value of their shares.

In August 2025, we entered into forward sale agreements with each of Wells Fargo National Bank, National Association, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and Mizuho Markets Americas LLC, each as forward purchasers, relating to an aggregate of 8,098,592 shares of our common stock. Each forward purchaser will have the right to accelerate the forward sale agreement to which it is a party and require us to physically settle such forward sale agreement on a date specified by such forward purchaser if: -     in the good faith, commercially reasonable judgment of such forward purchaser, it or its affiliate is unable to borrow a number of shares of our common stock equal to the number of shares to be delivered by us upon physical settlement of such forward sale agreement or it or its affiliate is unable to borrow such number of shares at a rate equal to or less than an agreed maximum stock loan rate;- we declare any dividend or distribution on shares of our common stock payable in (i) cash in excess of a specified amount (other than an extraordinary dividend), (ii) securities of another company, or (iii) any other type of securities (other than our common stock), rights, warrants or other assets for payment (cash or other consideration) at less than the prevailing market price, as reasonably determined by such forward purchaser;- certain ownership thresholds applicable to such forward purchaser are exceeded;- an event is announced that, if consummated, would result in an extraordinary event (as defined in the forward sale agreements), as well as certain events such as a delisting of our common stock (each as more fully described in the forward sale agreements); or - certain other events of default or termination events occur, including, among other things, any material misrepresentation made by us in connection with our entry into a forward sale agreement, our bankruptcy (except as described below) or certain changes in law (each as more fully described in the forward sale agreements). A forward purchaser's decision to exercise its right to accelerate a forward sale agreement to which it is a party (or, in certain cases, the portion thereof that it determines is affected by the relevant event) will be made irrespective of our interests, including our need for capital. In such cases, we could be required to issue and deliver shares of our common stock under the physical settlement provisions of that particular forward sale agreement irrespective of our capital needs, which would result in dilution to our earnings per share and return on equity, and may adversely affect the market price of our common stock. In addition, upon certain events of bankruptcy or insolvency related to us, each forward sale agreement will automatically terminate without further liability of either party. Following any such termination, we would not issue any shares of our common stock or receive any proceeds pursuant to the forward sale agreements. Each forward sale agreement provides for settlement on a settlement date or dates to be specified at our discretion on or prior to December 31, 2026. Each forward sale agreement will be physically settled by delivery of shares of our common stock, unless we elect to cash settle or net share settle such forward sale agreement. Upon physical settlement or, if we so elect, net share settlement of a particular forward sale agreement, delivery of shares of our common stock in connection with such physical settlement or (to the extent we are obligated to deliver shares of our common stock) net share settlement will result in dilution to our earnings per share and return on equity, and may adversely affect the market price of our common stock. If we elect cash settlement or net share settlement with respect to all or a portion of the shares of our common stock underlying a particular forward sale agreement, we expect that the relevant forward purchaser (or an affiliate thereof) will purchase a number of shares of our common stock necessary to satisfy its or its affiliate's obligation to return the shares of our common stock borrowed from third parties in connection with the related sales of shares of our common stock under that forward sale agreement and, upon net share settlement, its obligation to deliver shares to us, if applicable. If the market value of shares of our common stock during the relevant valuation period under the particular forward sale agreement is above the applicable forward sale price, in the case of cash settlement, we would be obligated to pay the relevant forward purchaser under that particular forward sale agreement an amount in cash equal to the difference multiplied by the number of shares of our common stock underlying that particular forward sale agreement subject to cash settlement or, in the case of net share settlement, we would be obligated to deliver to the relevant forward purchaser a number of shares of our common stock having a value equal to the difference multiplied by the number of shares of our common stock underlying that particular forward sale agreement subject to net share settlement. Thus, we could be responsible for a potentially substantial cash payment or share delivery obligation. In addition, the purchase of shares of our common stock in connection with the relevant forward purchaser or its affiliate unwinding its hedge positions could cause the market price of our common stock to increase over such time (or prevent a decrease over such time), thereby increasing the amount of cash we would owe to the relevant forward purchaser (or decreasing the amount of cash that the relevant forward purchaser would owe us) upon a cash settlement of the relevant forward sale agreement or increasing the number of shares of our common stock we would be obligated to deliver to the relevant forward purchaser (or decreasing the number of shares of our common stock that the relevant forward purchaser would be obligated to deliver to us) upon net share settlement of the relevant forward sale agreement. We will not be able to control the manner in which the forward purchasers unwind their hedge positions. The forward sale price that we expect to receive upon physical settlement of the forward sale agreements is subject to adjustment on a daily basis based on a floating interest rate factor equal to the overnight bank funding rate less a spread and will be decreased based on amounts related to expected dividends on shares of our common stock during the term of such forward sale agreement. If the overnight bank funding rate is less than the spread on any day, the interest rate factor will result in a daily reduction of the forward sale price for such day.

Our shareholders have no contractual or other legal right to dividends that have not been declared. We currently expect that we will continue to pay dividends in an amount consistent with our dividend strategy and policy in effect prior to the announcement of the proposed merger, and that we will continue to propose future increases in our quarterly dividend rate consistent with our announced dividend growth strategy. However, there is no assurance that our shareholders will continue to receive payments of such dividends while the proposed Essential merger is pending or the combined company will pay such dividends following completion of the proposed merger, for a number of reasons that include, for example: - a lack of cash to pay such dividends, due to changes in our cash requirements, capital spending plans, financing agreements, cash flow or financial position;- our Board of Directors may decide not to declare and pay quarterly dividends in accordance with historical practice or our stated dividend strategy, or at all;- the amount of quarterly dividends that we may pay to shareholders is subject to restriction under Delaware law and compliance with our stated dividend payment policy and strategy; and - we may fail to receive upstream dividend payments from our subsidiaries in the same amount that we have historically, and the ability of our subsidiaries to do so is subject to various risks and uncertainties described herein and in Note 9-Shareholders' Equity-Dividends and Distributions in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

In accordance with applicable accounting standards in the United States related to business combinations, we believe that the proposed Essential merger will be accounted for as an acquisition of Essential's common stock by parent company and will follow the acquisition method of accounting for business combinations, including with respect to goodwill. We may be required to recognize in the future an impairment of goodwill or a change in fair value of financial instruments or certain other assets due to, for example, market conditions, other factors related to our performance or the performance of Essential's business, or other circumstances that may impact the fair value of a financial instrument or the other asset. See Note 18-Fair Value of Financial Information, in the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for information on the fair value of financial and other assets. Market conditions could include a decline over a period of time of our stock price, a decline over a period of time in valuation multiples of comparable water and wastewater utilities, market price performance of our common stock that compares unfavorably to our peer companies, or other circumstances. Recognition of impairments of goodwill and any changes in fair value of other assets would result in a charge to our income in the period in which the impairment or change occurred, which may negatively affect our financial condition, results of operations and total capitalization. The effects of any such impairment or change could be material and could make it more difficult to maintain our credit ratings, secure financing on attractive terms, maintain compliance with debt covenants and meet the expectations of our regulators.

If we institute or consent to, or an appropriate regulatory or other authority institutes against us, a proceeding seeking a judgment in bankruptcy or insolvency or any other relief under any bankruptcy or insolvency law or other similar law affecting creditors' rights or if we or such authority presents a petition for our winding up or liquidation or we consent to such a petition, each forward sale agreement will automatically terminate. If a forward sale agreement so terminates, we would not be obligated to deliver to the relevant forward purchaser any shares of our common stock not previously delivered (or for which physical settlement has not been elected), and the relevant forward purchaser would be discharged from its obligation to pay the forward sale price per share in respect of any shares of our common stock not previously settled (or for which physical settlement has not been elected). Therefore, to the extent there are any shares of our common stock with respect to which we have not elected to physically settle under a forward sale agreement at the time of the institution of or consent to any such bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings or any such petition, we would not receive the forward sale price per share in respect of those shares of our common stock.

We entered into the Essential Merger Agreement with the expectation that the proposed Essential merger will result in various benefits, including, among other things, increased efficiencies of scale and size, increased geographic diversity, greater long-term growth opportunities for employees of the combined company, and other operating efficiencies. Achieving the anticipated benefits of the proposed merger is subject to a number of uncertainties, including whether our and Essential's businesses can be integrated in an efficient, effective and timely manner. We could have difficulty integrating the acquired assets, personnel and operations with our own. We anticipate that the integration of the two companies may ultimately be complex, and we expect to devote significant time and resources to this integration process. Risks and uncertainties that could impact us negatively include: - unforeseen or significant difficulties in integrating the two companies and their assets, operations, cultures and employees;- the potential disruption of the ongoing businesses and distraction of our and Essential's management;- changes in our business focus and/or management;- risks related to owning, operating, maintaining and successfully managing Essential's natural gas distribution business, including any increased risks and liabilities associated with the operation of that business;- difficulties in establishing and/or maintaining uniform standards, systems, controls, procedures and policies, including accounting and financial reporting, across both of the integrated companies, or merging or linking disparate ones;- the potential impairment of relationships with employees and partners as a result of any integration of new management personnel;- the potential inability to manage an increased number of locations and employees; and - the effect of any government regulations which relate to Essential's business, including with respect to jurisdictions in which our Regulated Businesses currently do not operate. It is possible that the integration process could take longer than anticipated and could result in the loss of valuable employees, the disruption of each company's ongoing businesses, processes and systems or inconsistencies in standards, controls, procedures, practices, policies and compensation arrangements, any of which could adversely affect the combined company's ability to achieve the anticipated benefits of the proposed Essential merger as and when expected. The combined company may have difficulty addressing possible differences in corporate cultures and management philosophies, and the various management and corporate governance constructs provided for in the Essential Merger Agreement to govern the combined company, including with respect to the board of directors of the combined company, may not operate successfully as intended or desired. Failure to achieve these anticipated benefits could result in increased costs or decreases in the amount of expected revenues and otherwise adversely affect the combined company's future business, financial condition, operating results and prospects.

Under the Essential Merger Agreement, we and Essential are each restricted, subject to limited exceptions, from entering into certain alternative transactions in lieu of the proposed Essential merger, including, among other things, soliciting, initiating, knowingly encouraging or knowingly facilitating the making of a proposal that is or would reasonably be expected to lead to a competing acquisition proposal from any person. Each of our Board of Directors and Essential's board of directors is limited in its ability to change its recommendation with respect to the proposed merger and related proposals. We and/or Essential may terminate the Essential Merger Agreement and enter into an agreement with respect to a superior proposal only if specified conditions have been satisfied, including compliance with the non-solicitation provisions of the Essential Merger Agreement. These provisions could discourage a third party that may have an interest in acquiring all or a significant part of us or Essential from considering or proposing such an acquisition, even if such third party were prepared to pay consideration with a higher per share cash or market value than the consideration proposed to be received or realized in the proposed merger, or the competing transaction might result in a potential acquirer proposing to pay a lower price than it would otherwise have proposed to pay because of the added expense of the termination fee that may become payable in certain circumstances. Under the Essential Merger Agreement, in the event the Essential Merger Agreement is terminated to accept a superior proposal, or under certain other circumstances, we would be required to pay a termination fee of $835 million to Essential in the case of a termination of the Essential Merger Agreement by us, and Essential would be required to pay a termination fee of $370 million to us in the case of a termination of the Essential Merger Agreement by Essential.

The proposed Essential merger will be completed only if stated conditions are satisfied, including the receipt of the requisite regulatory and other approvals, among other conditions. Many of the conditions are outside the parties' control, and both parties also have certain rights to terminate the Essential Merger Agreement. Accordingly, there may be uncertainty regarding the completion of the proposed merger. This uncertainty, or any disagreement with the decision to enter into the Essential Merger Agreement, may cause our suppliers, vendors, strategic partners, certain customers or others that deal with us to delay or defer entering into contracts or make other decisions concerning us, or to seek to change or cancel existing business relationships. Any delay or deferral of those decisions or changes in existing agreements or relationships could have a material adverse effect on us and our financial condition and results of operations.

The combined company's assets, liabilities, business, financial condition, cash flows, and operating results, as well as its business strategies and prospects, could be adversely affected before or after the closing of the proposed Essential merger as a result of previously unknown events or conditions occurring or existing before closing. Adverse changes in our or Essential's business or operations could occur or arise as a result of actions by us or Essential, or as a result of legal or regulatory developments (including, without limitation, the emergence or unfavorable resolution of pre-acquisition loss contingencies, deteriorating general business, market, industry or economic conditions), and other factors both within and beyond the control of us or Essential. A significant decline in the value of Essential's assets that we would acquire in the proposed merger or a significant increase in Essential's liabilities to be assumed could adversely affect the combined company's future business, financial condition, cash flows, operating results and prospects.

We expect to incur substantial non-recurring expenses associated with completing the proposed Essential merger, as well as expenses related to combining the operations of the two companies. For the year ended December 31, 2025, we incurred $13 million of merger-related costs. We estimate $150 million of merger-related costs will be incurred by the Company and by Essential prior to the closing of the proposed merger. The combined company may also incur additional unanticipated costs in or associated with the integration of the companies' businesses. Although we expect that the elimination of certain duplicative costs, as well as the realization of other efficiencies related to the integration of the two businesses, will offset some or all of the incremental transaction and merger-related costs over time, the combined company may not achieve this net benefit in the near term, or at all.

Because we and Essential, and each of their respective subsidiaries, are significantly regulated in the United States, the two companies have been and will continue to be affected by U.S. federal, state and local legislative, political and regulatory developments. After the merger is completed, the combined company and/or its subsidiaries will be subject to extensive regulation in the states in which the combined company will operate. The costs and burdens associated with complying with these regulations may have an adverse effect on the combined company. Moreover, potential legislative, political or regulatory changes, or other similar changes, may create greater risks to the stability of the combined company's revenue, income and earnings generally.

Following the completion of the Essential merger, the size of the combined company's business will be significantly larger than the current size of either our or Essential's respective businesses. The combined company's ability to successfully manage this expanded business will depend, in part, upon management's ability to design and implement operational, managerial, financial and strategic initiatives that address not only the integration of two independent standalone companies, but also the increased scale and scope of the combined business with its associated increased costs and complexity. In addition, the success of the Essential merger will depend, in part, on the ability of the combined company to successfully execute its business strategy. If the combined company is not able to achieve its business strategy on a timely basis, or otherwise fails to perform in accordance with the expectations of the parties, the anticipated benefits of the merger may not be realized fully or at all, and the merger may materially adversely affect the results of operations, financial condition and prospects of the combined company, and, consequently, the market value of the combined company's common stock.